[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) A forecast created by Trevor Bedford, Ph.D., an Associate Professor, Biostatistics, Bioinformatics and Epidemiology Program Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, projects that King County will reach record levels by Dec. 22.
In a press conference on Friday, Dr. Jeffrey Duchin, Health Officer, Public Health Seattle & King County said, “The Omicron outbreak we’ve been talking about is no longer theoretical. It is real and it’s here.”
Dr. Duchin shared the current situation in King County, adding that UW Medicine is finding 40% of tests are positive for Omicron and new COVID cases are up 50% since Thanksgiving.
Dr. Santiago Neme, MD, MPH of UW Medicine expressed concern over the number of patients already in Washington hospitals. “Our numbers for COVID infected patients have decreased,” Dr. Neme, said, “but we have been operating at a full or over full capacity for several months in many areas of the state.”
“Any increase in hospital rates or utilization will be pretty challenging for us and very concerning.”
Dr. Duchin added that In King County, hospitals are already caring for twice as many patients as before the start of the Delta wave in August.
Bedford told reporters that the Seattle-Bellevue area would be one of the first cities in the United States to experience widespread Omicron infections and the area was only “a few days” behind London. “New York City is ahead of Seattle and Rhode Island is as well,” he said. But he added this may be due to Seattle having “great S gene drop out data.” S Gene Target Failure (SGTF) is a faster way to identify a likely Omicron variant infection from a positive COVID test. Genomic sequencing is required to make an absolute determination.
Dr. Alexander L. Greninger M.D., Ph.D., M.S., M.Phil., assistant director of the UW Medicine Clinical Virology Laboratory told reporters that sequencing has a 5 to 7 day lag time.
“The number of samples coming into the labs are as high as we’ve seen during the pandemic, yesterday and the day before,” Dr. Greninger added. The UW Medicine Virology Lab has sequenced about 100 samples, and “98 or 99” were positive for Omicron.
The model was created using genomic sequencing data of positive COVID tests, and information on transmission rates from other countries such as the United Kingdom and South Africa. Bedford estimated Omicron cases were doubling in King County every 2.2 days, which is supported by reports from the University of Washington Department of Virology. If the forecast is accurate there could be 2,100 Omicron cases on top of 500 Delta cases in King County by Wednesday. That would far exceed the record number of daily new cases during the fifth wave, and the doubling would continue every one to three days into January.
“Omicron is an airborne disease like Delta and spreads easier indoors, and is a lot more contagious,” Dr. Duchin said, adding, “We do not yet have a clear picture on severity.”
To prepare for the coming wave the message was clear, “The single most important thing you can do is to get vaccinated and boosted even if you’ve had a prior infection,” said Dr. Duchin, “but vaccination alone won’t stop the spread of Omicron.”
King County Health said we need to take advantage of as many layers of protection as we can. That includes wearing tight-fitting N-95, KN-95, or KN-94 masks indoors. The public should avoid crowded indoor spaces, especially if people are unmasked and there is poor air circulation. If anyone feels sick, they should get tested for COVID and stay home to help blunt the spread.
“If you do gather please do safely as possible,” Dr. Duchin appealed. “Limit the number and size of gatherings. Avoid crowded indoor spaces. Do a rapid test on the day of the gathering. Gatherings will be better in large outdoor places or indoor with open windows and doors.”
Dr. Duchin also recommends avoiding travel, especially to areas with high COVID transmission rates. He added that King County has not closed the door on further public health safety measures, but does not plan to add additional measures beyond the guidelines already in place.
The panel stressed that the severity of illness caused by Omicron is still not known. “My read on severity is still difficult – a large portion of infections are both breakthrough and reinfections,” Bedford told reporters. “It may well be the case that Omicron is intrinsically less severe than Delta, but we don’t know. What matters is how many cases do we get and what fraction of those cases require hospitalizations. That is going to be a very large number of cases, severity is not clear enough to know if it will be very bad, bad, or not so bad.”
When asked about breakthrough cases among the vaccinated, Dr. Greninger said, “Moderna and Pfizer are significantly better than Johnson & Johnson.”
“Serious infection is the most important,” added Dr. Duchin. “Meaningful protection against serious infection, hospitalization, and death will protect many of us in vaccinated communities.”
In King County, 160,000 people 12 and older remain unvaccinated and 250,000 have only had a single dose. According to the Washington State Department of Health, about one-third of fully vaccinated King County residents have received a booster dose.
Public and private employers were urged to start contingency planning now to prepare for staffing shortages. “We need to prepare for a large wave of people becoming ill quickly together,” added Dr. Duchin. “We will try to get guidance so we can get people back to work as soon as possible but plan for ‘large scale’ absenteeism.
Public testing sites for COVID will remain open through the holiday season except on Christmas and New Year’s Day. When asked what to do if you need a test on Christmas or New Year’s, Dr. Duchin recommended using a home test versus going to a hospital emergency department.
When asked about the rest of the United States, Bedford didn’t provide an optimistic picture. “Expect things to light up across the United States shortly – first in the cities and then rural areas.”
Looking ahead to the future, Bedford shared that the models he created in the fall have changed significantly due to the Omicron variant.
“Omicron makes things ‘significantly worse.’ I’m quite worried in nine months we will have both Omicron and Delta circulating,” adding, “Omicron will not get us out of this.”
[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) Dr. Scott Lindquist, State Epidemiologist for Communicable Diseases, Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH), reported that the number of COVID cases caused by the Dec 4. wrestling tournament super spreader events is significantly larger than previously reported.
“If you attended or participated, you should get tested,” Dr. Lindquist told reporters during a morning media briefing.
The WSDoH reported on Wednesday that 80 to 90 COVID cases were connected to four youth wrestling tournaments in Yelm, Puyallup, Sumner, and Lacey. Dr. Lindquist said this morning that since the initial report they have identified “more locations” than what the state was aware of.
The confirmed cases are spread out across 11 local health districts across Western Washington and out to Yakima County. County health departments are in the process of contact tracing individuals and doing interviews. In a story on My Northwest, Dr. Jeff Duchin, King County health officer reported there was one known hospitalization.
Because the impact is spread out over a large area and involves 12 health departments, WSDoH doesn’t have detailed information on vaccination status or how many participants and spectators have been infected. The number of new cases is expected to rise over the next 12 to 24 hours.
Dr. Linquist explained they have requested three to five samples of positive tests from each impacted county for genomic sequencing. The first three samples were positive for the Omicron variant. He added that this “clearly is an Omicron outbreak.”
December 16 media briefing with dr. Scott Lindquist, Washington state department of health
“I have a sense this will be very large and Omicron will play a big role in this,” Dr. Linquist added.
Pictures and videos from the tournaments showed packed indoor gymnasiums with a handful of people wearing masks. Washington state guidelines would have required masks for all spectators, for unvaccinated athletes who presented a negative COVID test before the tournament and for all athletes not actively competing.
“This does not bode well to have an event this early with Omicron in Washington state.”
A lot is still not known about the Omicron variant which has spread to 77 countries and across the United States just a month after being identified by South African researchers. Early data indicates it is highly transmissible, with multiple countries seeing a doubling of cases every one to three days. Over a dozen studies have found that Omicron is resistant to vaccines. Early data out of South Africa implies that vaccination is helping blunt the severity of symptomatic cases. Additional lab analysis, and anecdotal data out of Israel indicate boosters provide a significant increase in protection against infections.
Initial reports in late November that Omicron is “very mild” and wasn’t resulting in hospitalizations were overly optimistic. According to the National Institute of Communicable Diseases, South Africa has over 7,600 hospitalized COVID patients on Dec. 16, up 258% since Nov. 11. The ratio of patients that require oxygen jumped up this week as infections are progressing. The National Health Service in the United Kingdom reported its first confirmed Omicron variant related death earlier this week.
[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) Pavitra Roychoudhury, MSc, Ph.D., of the University of Washington Virology Division, reported 20% of tests samples submitted for genomic sequencing are positive for the Omicron variant. From Dec. 6 to Dec. 10, Omicron jumped from 1% to 20% of samples tested using an S Gene Target Failure (SGTF) test.
The Washington State Department of Health reported on Dec. 13, 75.3% of residents 12 and older are fully vaccinated. Multiple studies have shown that three months after vaccination, Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson and Johnson had low neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron variant but enough of a secondary response to prevent severe infections. On Dec. 15, the WSDoH reported 1.48 million people of 3.3 million eligible had received a booster shot. Boosters doses have been shown to increase neutralizing antibodies and add additional protection.
Percent of Total Population Fully Vaccinated
Percentage of Vaccinated People with Booster Dose
Total Population in Group
Average 7-Day New Case Rate
70.00% or above
33.67%
2,343,250
72.1
60.00% to 69.99%
30.67%
1,669,300
93.6
50.00% to 59.99%
28.79%
3,339,300
87.4
40.00% to 49.99%
25.62%
268,975
76.5
32.70% to 39.99%
31.51%
151,850
102.6
7 Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate for Total Population, Adjusted for Population by County, Booster percentage is based on totally fully vaccinated, not eligible, Average 7-day New Case Rate <25 normal, =>25 to 99.9 moderate, => 100, high transmission
Statewide, the 7 day moving average for new COVID cases was 84.1, indicating moderate coronavirus transmission across the state. Ferry and Columbia Counties are hot spots, while a surge in new cases in Garfield County was winding down.
On Wednesday, the WSDoH reported four super spreader events on Dec. 4, involving high school wrestling tournaments in Yelm, Puyallup, Sumner, and Lacey. Participants and spectators came from Clark, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, King, Kitsap, Lewis, Mason, Skagit, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, Whatcom, and Yakima Counties, and one school from Oregon.
Officials reported that 80 to 90 people had confirmed COVID cases so far, and they expect to find more infections. Infections were among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, and three genomic sequenced tests were positive for the Omicron variant.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) presented two potential national scenarios in a closed-door media briefing. The first predicted a continued Delta surge followed by a smaller wave of Omicron cases spiking in the early spring. The second had Delta, Omicron, and Influenza surging simultaneously in January, potentially overwhelming hospitals.
Omicron has world leaders and health officials increasingly worried as cases surge around the globe. Seventy-seven countries and 36 states have confirmed cases.
In South Africa, over 7,300 people are hospitalized, an increase of 81% from a week ago, with cases exploding outside of Gauteng Province. The South Africa Department of Health reported 26,976 positive cases today, and the 7 day moving average jumped to over 23,000 – a new record.
The United Kingdom reported a single-day record for new COVID cases – 78,610. National Health Services leaders said 60% of all cases in London are the Omicron variant and 35% of cases nationwide. British prime minister Boris Johnson told reporters that cases of Omicron are doubling in less than two days.
“I’m afraid we’re also seeing the inevitable increase in hospitalizations up by 10 percent nationally week on week and up by almost a third in London.”
In a political blow, the conservative members of his party voted down stricter measures meant to curb the growing number of hospitalizations.
“Although current data on the severity of the infection associated with the Omicron [Variant of Concern] (VOC) remain limited, evidence to date raises concern that the Omicron VOC may be associated with a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection,” the report stated.
“Even in the case of lower infection/disease severity with the Omicron VOC, a steep, exponential increase in cases caused by the Omicron VOC will result in a growing number of cases with severe disease. As EU/EEA countries are still facing the severe impact of the Delta VOC wave, a further rise in hospitalisations could quickly overwhelm healthcare systems.”
Many pundits have rushed to declare Omicron as mild relying on abstracts, articles, and soundbites. Many doctors believe the early data is encouraging but caution against rushing to conclusions.
Several publications are quoting an article from the LKS Faculty of Medicine from the University of Hong Kong by Dr. Michael Chan Chi-wai, Associate Professor of School of Public Health and Principal Investigator, and Professor John Nicholls, Professor of Department of Pathology.
The research paper and study data have not been published and currently is under peer review. The article suggested that the Omicron variant can replicate 70 times faster in the lungs’ airways when compared to the Delta variant, creating a higher viral load. Dr. Chan also suggested that Omicron may infect multiciliated cells found in the deep lungs at a slower rate when compared to the Delta variant.
Dr. Chan stressed that COVID infections are complicated, and only looking at the ability to infect lung cells was too narrow to reach a broader conclusion on severity. “It is important to note that the severity of disease in humans is not determined only by virus replication but also by the host immune response to the infection, which may lead to dysregulation of the innate immune system.”
He went on to add, “By infecting many more people, a very infectious virus may cause more severe disease and death even though the virus itself may be less pathogenic. Therefore, taken together with our recent studies showing that the Omicron variant can partially escape immunity from vaccines and past infection, the overall threat from Omicron variant is likely to be very significant.”
Editor’s Note: As a policy, Malcontent News does not quote or publish data from pre-print studies. The transmission rate of the Omicron SARS-CoV2 variant is so high it is spreading at a rate faster than the scientific review process. It is for this reason, we are using pre-print studies in our reporting and analysis for the Omicron variant. We will continue to backlink to all quoted sources to support transparency in reporting.
[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) Pavitra Roychoudhury, MSc, Ph.D., of the University of Washington Virology Division, reported 13% of tests samples submitted for genomic sequencing on Dec. 8 were positive for the Omicron variant. Tentative confirmation was made using an S Gene Target Failure (SGTF) test, with Dr. Roychoudhury indicating in a tweet that it will take a few days for genomic sequencing confirmation.
Using the data provided by the University of Washington, Omicron variant cases in Washington doubled every 24 hours from Dec. 6 to Dec. 8. The total number of new COVID cases being detected indicates that the Omicron variant is rapidly replacing Delta, not adding to confirmed cases at this time.
At @UWVirology, we continue to screen positive specimens using SGTF. Confirmation by sequencing usually lags by a few days, but we expect the majority of these SGTFs to be Omicron. If so, definitely seeing a rapid rise similar to reports from South Africa, UK, Denmark, etc. https://t.co/Qb1LrEdT6tpic.twitter.com/1d7Rheqoe6
If the rate of new case growth for Omicron continues at the current rate in Washington, it would be the fastest case growth rate observed to date. In South Africa and across the United States, Omicron cases have been doubling every three days. In the United Kingdom, cases have been doubling every two-and-a-half days and in Denmark, every two days.
Lancet Labs in South Africa started seeing an alarming number of PCR tests from the Gauteng Province missing the target S gene in mid-November. Lancet shared the findings with the Network for Genomics Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA), which called an urgent meeting on 23 November. “We were shocked by the number of mutations,” says Tulio de Oliveira in a report in Science, a virologist at the University of KwaZulu-Natal and NGS-SA’s principal investigator.
On Nov. 24, Dr. Alex Sigal of the Africa Health Institute received three test swabs with the Omicron variant and started growing the virus to test it against sera from vaccinated and recovered individuals.
On the same day, Lancet sequenced another 100 samples with the missing S gene, and all were positive for the newly discovered variant. The South Africa Department of Health sent their findings to the World Health Organization (WHO) on Nov. 24, and Omicron was labeled a Variant of Concern (VOC) on Nov. 26.
Nevada became the most recent state to report an Omicron variant COVID case on December 14
Preliminary data has emerged over the last week on transmissibility, treatment efficacy, and vaccine effectiveness for Omicron.
A study out of South Africa published on Dec. 2, found that Omicron was 2.5 to 3.5 times more transmissible than Delta. The study, which has not been peer-reviewed, indicated the Rt, a measure of how quickly a communicable disease can spread, is between R12 and R17, which is comparative to measles. On Dec. 8, Hiroshi Nishiura, professor at Kyoto University released a study that found Omicron is 4.2 times more transmissible than Delta with an Rt of R20. If additional research were to find this true, the Omicron COVID variant would be the most transmissible disease observed in the modern medicine era.
Eleven studies and reports, none of which have been peer-reviewed, have been published on vaccine effectiveness in the last 10 days. Studies have evaluated the Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson and Johnson, and AstraZeneca vaccines.
Studies that reviewed the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine found that the effectiveness of preventing symptomatic illness dropped from 80% to zero to 35%, depending on the study. Very limited real-world data out of South Africa from Discovery Health released today showed that the Pfizer vaccine was only 33% effective at preventing infection.
The same study found that the Pfizer vaccine was 70% effective at preventing “severe complications of Covid-19,” down from 93% with the Delta variant.
Dr. Peter English, Retired Consultant in Communicable Disease Control, Former Editor of Vaccines in Practice, past Chair of the BMA Public Health Medicine Committee had this to say about the findings.
“Two doses of vaccine are 70% effective at preventing hospitalization. They are not ineffective, but they are much less effective than the 90-95% protection that two doses provided against hospitalization. With a highly infectious variant, this still risks a catastrophic number of hospitalizations.”
Researchers evaluated the sera from 239 vaccinated healthcare workers in the Boston area. The study found that for the Moderna and Pfizer vaccine, more than 50% of individuals had no neutralizing antibodies three months after vaccination. The Moderna vaccine showed a 43-fold decrease in antibodies while the Pfizer vaccine had a 122-fold decrease. The Johnson and Johnson vaccine performed better against the Omicron variant versus Delta but had significantly reduced effectiveness versus the original COVID strain.
For individuals who had a prior Covid-19 infection and then got vaccinated more than six months ago, the Moderna vaccine had a 9-fold decrease in neutralizing antibodies, the Pfizer vaccine had a 12-fold decrease, and the Johnson & Johnson vaccine had a 17-fold decrease.
The study also found an mRNA booster within the last three months provided a significant increase in neutralizing antibodies but did not provide the same level of protection versus the Delta variant. The samples from the Johnson and Johnson test subjects were all boosted with a half-dose of the Moderna vaccine.
Two studies on disease acquired immunity found that protection declined significantly compared to previous variants. A study published on Dec. 2 out of South Africa, which has not been peer-reviewed, found that protection against Omicron dropped 240% for individuals who were previously infected by the original strain, Beta, or Delta, and had never been vaccinated. Another study released on Dec. 9 reached a similar conclusion, and in an alarming find, reported up to 40% of individuals who had a previous Delta infection were experiencing reinfection with Omicron. The Delta wave ended on Sep. 19 in South Africa, suggesting it took less than three months for protection to wane.
Scientists, public health officials, and policymakers have been attempting to determine if Omicron is less severe than the Delta variant. The study released from Discovery Health today reported that Omicron was 29% less severe than the original COVID strain.
“Without seeing a preprint or the report on which this press release is based it is difficult to get a clear understanding of the validity of these conclusions,” said Prof. Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine at the University of East Anglia and a member of the National Institute of Health Research in the U.K. “If these are valid conclusions then there are both reassuring and worrying findings. The report that reinfections are more common with Omicron has already been published and the evidence is strong that Omicron can increase the risk of infection in people who have already had a COVID infection.”
Other experts warned against reading too much into the Discovery Health report.
Dr. Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology, University of Reading, said, “This press release outlines preliminary observations of Covid-19 in South Africa during the first three weeks of the wave of infections caused by the Omicron. It shouldn’t be forgotten that in the UK, during the initial epidemic there was a 5-week gap between the first diagnosis and the first death. A situation report taken in those first few weeks would not have given us an accurate picture of what was about to happen, so we shouldn’t expect these preliminary indications to be a portent of how the Omicron epidemic will play out here.”
The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) provided detailed information on Dec. 10 about the first 43 Omicron variant cases detected in the United States. The report found that one person required hospitalization and was released after two days. Almost 60% were 39 years old or younger and 33% had recently traveled internationally. Forty of the 43 cases were vaccinated or had a previous COVID infection. Among the 34 who were vaccinated, 14 had received a booster.
Officials believe the high infection rate for vaccinated individuals has created a data fallacy. International travelers are more likely to be vaccinated, younger, and healthier and many were not eligible for a booster.
The Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH) reported 75.3% of all Washingtonians 12 and older are fully vaccinated and almost one in four children five to eleven have received their first dose of the Pfizer COVID vaccine. An estimated 3.5 million residents are eligible for boosters, but only 1.35 million have received one to date.
WSDoH reported the 7 day moving average for new cases is 1,333, and the statewide 7 day moving average new case rate is 83.5 per 100K residents – moderate transmission. The state has been averaging 650 to 700 hospitalized COVID patients a day, with roughly 100 requiring ventilators.
Statewide new admissions for COVID-related illness started increasing on Nov. 27, and through Dec 7. was averaging 92 new admissions a day. On Tuesday there were approximately 642 available staffed acute care and 144 staffed ICU beds throughout Washington.
[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) The Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH), in partnership with the UW Medicine Virology Laboratory, has confirmed a total of three cases of omicron variant in Thurston County, Pierce County, and King County. The patients range in age from 20 to 39, two men, one woman.
The patients are:
a man in his thirties from Thurston County,
a man in his twenties from Pierce County, and
a woman in her twenties from King County.
Confirmation came in midday Saturday, and officials were still in the process of notifying the patients.
The WSDoH did not have information on their condition, travel history, or vaccination status. The samples were collected using PCR tests between Nov. 29 and Dec. 1 and were submitted for genomic sequencing.
Sequencing has been prioritized for anyone with travel history or close contact with a confirmed case.
“We knew that it was a matter of time before omicron was sequenced in our state and so we were anticipating this very news,” said Umair A. Shah, MD, MPH, Secretary of Health. “We strongly urge people to get vaccinated and get their boosters as soon as possible to maximize their level of protection from any variant.”
“Even with a highly mutated virus-like omicron, we are not going back to square one of the pandemic,” said Dr. Jeff Duchin, Health Officer, Public Health – Seattle & King County. “Omicron may pose new challenges that we will need to respond to, but compared to the early days of the pandemic, we know much more about COVID-19, and we’re better prepared for it. We know layered protections work together to maximally reduce risk, and that will continue to be the case for delta and for omicron if that becomes a dominant strain circulating in our community.”
“We suspected that the omicron variant was circulating in our region, and now our laboratory has confirmed the first three cases in Washington state by viral genome sequencing in the last 24 hours. Throughout the pandemic, it’s been a huge team effort by the UW Medicine Virology Laboratory, requiring development and implementation of several diagnostic and sequencing assays to detect and confirm the variety of COVID-19 variants that have surfaced in Washington state,” said Dr. Geoffrey Baird, chair of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology at UW School of Medicine. To date, the laboratory has tested approximately 3.8 million COVID-19 samples.
A study about the transmissibility of the omicron variant was released from a multinational group of researchers on Friday. The study, which has not been peer-reviewed, indicated that omicron is two times to three times more transmissible than the prevalent delta variant. Researchers estimate that the Rt, called, “r-naught,” is R12 to R17, which is equivalent to measles. The Rt for delta is R6.0 and for the AY.4.2 delta variant is R6.6.
Another study released on Thursday indicated that people relying on disease acquired immunity are up to 240% more likely to be infected from the omicron variant versus the beta or delta variants.
The CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna stated their vaccines would remain highly effective at preventing severe COVID and hospitalizations. Researchers are still one to two weeks away from preliminary information on if there will be significant vaccine escape with the omicron variant.
Public health officials are recommended for the unvaccinated to get vaccinated and for the 2.2 million Washingtonians eligible for a booster to get one. Washington state continues to have an indoor mask mandate.
Individuals who are experiencing COVID-like symptoms or have a known close contact should get tested. If you have traveled or know you had close contact with a traveler and get a positive test result from a home test, you should follow up with a PCR test to aid in tracking the spread of the omicron COVID variant.
Knowledge is the best tool to fight against fear. A wise person chooses to be informed so they can make sound decisions. To join the fight against COVID misinformation, you can share this update through your social media platform of choice.
[KING COUNTY, Wash.] – (MTN) Officials in five states have reported Omicron cases from Hawaii to New York, as the world races to better understand the danger the new variant presents.
In Washington, the first set of local COVID data was made available in a week, indicating that hospitalizations are plateaued again and new cases are down. Twenty-six counties no longer have high rates of transmission. There was an increase in new cases among 20 to 49-year-olds compared to last week.
Governor Jay Inslee reported that FEMA was sending two mobile vaccination clinics to King County, with the first one opening on December 20 in Federal Way.
One-third of the 3.3 million booster eligible residents of Washington have leveled up, while in some areas people are searching for appointments to get a third dose.
Almost 75% of residents age 12 and over are now fully vaccinated, and 17% of all Washington children ages 5 to 11 have received at least one dose of the Pfizer vaccine.
Locally, new COVID cases in the Bellevue, Lake Washington, and Northshore School Districts were down from last week. Vaccination rates for children 5 to 11 that live in the three districts are remarkable with some zip codes reporting almost 60% of all kids already receiving their first dose.
In national news, the United States has confirmed ten Omicron variant cases in California, Colorado, Hawaii, Minnesota, and New York. The infections in Hawaii, Minnesota, and several in New York were caused by community transmission.
President Joe Biden announced new programs to try and combat the spread of COVID in the United States, but Republicans in the Senate threatened to have the United States default on the national debt if he implemented meaningful strict measures.
In South Africa officials are becoming increasingly alarmed as new cases and hospitalizations increase exponentially. The Gauteng Province, home to 15.7 million is the hardest hit, but cases were increasing across the nation. Officials there reported COVID hospitalizations increased more than 23% overnight, and ICU admissions jumped almost 40%.
A study published tonight from South Africa reported that people relying on natural immunity had a 240% higher chance of reinfection with the Omicron variant, compared to the Beta or Delta variants.
In disinformation, we explore the claim that the Omicron variant is no worse than a cold or flu.
No promotional consideration has been given, or requested from the n95 project or any manufacturer of masks
Washington State Update for December 2, 2021
Washington state Covid-19 update
After a six-day break from updated and accurate data from the Washington State Department of Health, we’re back. A week ago the question was how much would Thanksgiving travel impact new case rates. The Omicron variant has changed the plot.
Vaccination data for the state was updated. A couple of counties had numbers drop from last week. This has happened before as data gets validated but this update dropped Grant County below 50% – so the brackets changed.
Skagit and Whatcom Counties new cases rates are down about 40% from three weeks ago. The surge of cases among mostly unvaccinated residents is winding down. New
New cases have decreased a smidge compared to last week but do not reveal any significant trends.
Percent of Total Population Fully Vaccinated
Total Population in Group
Average 14-Day New Case Rate
70.00% or above (3 counties)
2,343,250
127.7
60.00% to 69.99% (5 counties)
1,374,000
261.0
50.00% to 59.99% (15 counties)
3,420,400
227.8
40.00% to 49.99% (9 counties)
487,375
234.7
32.30% to 39.99% (6 counties)
151,850
176.7
14-Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate for Total Population, Adjusted for Population by County
Through December 2, Washington’s statewide 14-day rolling average is 203.2 Covid-19 cases per 100K, and the 7 day rolling average is 82.7.
No counties have a case rate over 400.0. per 100,000 residents. Twenty-six counties representing 5.65 million Washingtonians have a 7 day moving average case rate under 100.
New cases by age declined for every age group except 20 to 49-year-olds, which increased. Hospitalizations for ages 20 to 34 also increased.
Age Group
7-Day Case Rate
7-Day Hospitalization Rate
Ages 0-11
91.5
0.1
Ages 12-19
83.3
0.5
Ages 20-34
100.1
9.1
Ages 35-49
100.1 (not a typo)
5.5
Ages 50-64
73.8
8.8
Ages 65-79
44.1
10.2
Ages 80+
40.6
17.0
7-day case rate and 7-day hospitalization rate is per 100K within the age group – the target for 7-day case rate is <25.0, but there are other factors such as vaccination rates within the age groups, how many total tests within the 7-day period, and the positivity rate within each age group
The USA Today COVID Tracker has not been updated since November 30 but reports 9,303 Washingtonians have died from Covid-19 related illness.
FEMA sending mobile vaccination clinics to Washington
Governor Jay Inslee announced that FEMA would be sending two mobile vaccination clinics to Washington. The first site will open on December 20 in Federal Way and is slated to operate for a month. A second location is planned but a date and location were not announced.
“This is great news in the ongoing fight against COVID. I am grateful for our strong partnership with the federal government, and these FEMA Family Mobilization Clinics coming to King County is a great result of that partnership,” said Inslee. “This is an innovative model that will help increase equitable access to vaccination for all Washingtonians.”
A constellation of partners is working with FEMA including the Washington State Department of Health, the King County Executive’s Office, and Seattle & King County Public Health.
Some people in Western Washington have reported problems in securing vaccination appointments for boosters due to high demand.
One-third of booster eligible Washingtonians have leveled up
The Washington State Department of Health reported 1.08 million of the 3.3 million eligible for boosters have rolled up their sleeves. There is significant evidence that vaccine and disease acquired immunity declines after five to seven months, but a number of factors such as age and other health issues can affect the duration.
There is some evidence within the genetic sequencing of the Omicron variant that disease-acquired immunity from previous mutations won’t be as strong as vaccine-based immunity.
Over 17% of Washington kids age 5 to 11 have received their first dose of the COVID vax
The Washington State Department of Health reported 116,121 children from 5 to 11 have received their first dose of the Pfizer COVID vaccine, about 17% of all eligible kids in Washington.
The Pfizer vaccine Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) was amended to include 5 to 11-year-olds. They receive two smaller doses and reach fully vaccinated after five weeks. Initial data indicates that due to the stronger immune response of children and adolescents, a booster or third dose is not needed. That could change with time or if another variant emerges that is vaccine-resistant.
Washington state approaching 75% of population 12 and older fully vaccinated
The Washington State Department of Health reported 80.8% of all Washingtonians 12 and older have received at least one dose of the COVID vaccine and 74.6% are fully vaccinated.
Although this is good news, Washington is starting to fall behind other states. The Mayo Clinic reported that Washington was in 10th place for 12 to 17-year-olds fully vaccinated, 9th place for 18 to 64-year-olds, and tied with 32 other states for first place for 65 and older.
Travel Advisories
Due to the confirmation of community transmission of the Omicron variant in the United States, we are advising our readers to reconsider air travel and recreational travel plans. Especially if those plans include going to places with large crowds or major events at enclosed buildings.
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King County, Washington is reporting over 85.0% of age eligible residents are vaccinated with at least one dose. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA has provided full approval of the Pfizer vaccine for anyone 16 and over and EUA approval for the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines. The Pfizer vaccine has EUA approval for children 5 to 15 years old.
COVID vaccines and boosters are free for anyone 5 and older. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.
It has been a week since the last report and hospital status has improved significantly while the number of COVID patients receiving care remains elevated. The Washington State Department of Health reported 89.4% of staffed acute care beds were occupied with 10.2% of patients infected with Covid-19. There are 706 COVID patients statewide with an estimated 212 in the ICU – 114 requiring ventilators.
Statewide, there are an estimated 753 acute care and 151ICU beds available.
On Wednesday, the 7 day rolling average hospital admission rate for new COVID patients was statistically the same as last week – 65.
Hospital status by region – ICU Occupancy should be below 80%, ICU COVID Patients should be below 20%, Acute Care Occupancy should be below 80%, and Acute Care COVID Patients should be below 10%
– Blackwell (1*/4) – Dickinson/Explorer (2*/7) – Eastlake High (1*/3) – Ella Baker (1*/0) – Evergreen Middle School (1*/0) – Finn Hill Middle School (2*/18) – Inglewood Middle School (1*/0) – Juanita High (2*/39) – Kamiakin Middle School (2*/12) – Keller (2*/7) – Kirkland Middle School (1*/8) – Lakeview Elementary (2*/2) – Lake Washington High School (1*/7) – Mead (2*/7) – Northstar Middle School (12) – Redmond High School (1*/10) – Redmond Middle School (1*/19) – Rush (2*/8) – Thoreau (2*/6)
None
Northshore
YELLOW
– Bothell High School (3*/12) – Canyon Creek Elementary (5**/11) – Canyon Park Middle School (1*/4) – Crystal Springs Elementary (1*/17) – Fernwood Elementary (1*/0) – Frank Love Elementary (1*/10) – Kenmore Elementary (1*/6) – Kenmore Middle School (4*/32) – Kokanee Elementary (0/1) – Leota Middle School (1*/2) – Maywood Hills Elementary (3*/4) – Moorlands Elementary (1*/2) – Northshore Middle School (1*/13) – Ruby Bridges Elementary (0/1) – Shelton View Elementary (0/2) – Skyview Middle School (1*/4) – Sunrise Elementary (2*/2) – Timbercrest Middle School (2*/0) – Wellington Elementary (1*/1) – Woodin Elementary (0/2) Woodmore Elementary (0/4)
None
Local Districts Scorecard – * indicates positive cases only ** indicates 5 or more confirmed positive cases – (x*/y) x is positive cases and 7 quarantined, quarantined does not include positive cases
We redefined the school district statuses. Information for classroom and building closures has been a challenge to obtain, both for closures and reopening. We are adopting moving any school with more than ten active COVID cases reported into the red, and we’ve adjusted the third column to reflect this change.
Based on reader feedback, and improvement in the data we are receiving, we have adjusted how we are reporting data. The Lake Washington and Northshore School Districts are now reported as (X*/Y) or (X**/Y). X represents the number of positive cases while Y represents how many are in quarantine. The number in quarantine does not include positive cases. If there are two asterisks, that indicates five or more confirmed cases within the last 14 days at that school.
Confirmed COVID cases were down in the three school districts we track. The Bellevue School District did not have updated data for quarantined students today.
The Lake Washington School District updates data once a week, and we’ve had no parent confirmed reports on new COVID cases this week.
We continued to encourage parents to request daily updates from the Lake Washington School District. This change would bring the three school districts we track into alignment.
Bellevue-Bothell-Kirkland-Woodinville local COVID news
King County Public Health updated the vaccination rates by zip code and now reports the data from ages 5 and up. Vaccination rates for children between 5 to 11 remain remarkable for the region.
Percentage of King County Residents 5 and older who have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine, December 2, 2021
Zip Code
Percent vaccinated, at least one dose, 5 to 11 years old
Percent vaccinated, at least one dose, 5 and older
98155
46.8%
92.5%
98028
42.7%
88.5%
98011
37.2%
85.2%
98034
38.8%
84.3%
98033
59.5%
93.5%
98072
39.2%
88.2%
98077
35.7%
80.2%
98052
55.0%
94.6%
98004
51.3%
>95.0%
98039
44.6%
90.7%
98005
53.4%
94.8%
98007
32.3%
88.0%
98008
44.5%
91.2%
98053
46.0%
92.9%
98074
50.5%
>95.0%
98075
43.0%
>95.0%
Vaccination rates with at least one dose
National Round-Up
Johns Hopkins University Cumulative Case Tracker reports 137,602 new cases and 1,960 deaths nationwide on Thursday. New cases continue to grow at a significant rate in the United States. There is no way to know if Omicron is driving the increase, but current data indicates that over 99% of new cases are Delta or one of its sublineages.
At least 10 Omicron COVID variant cases confirmed in the United States
Health officials in California, Colorado, Hawaii, Minnesota, and New York confirmed at least one case of the Omicron variant in their states.
Yesterday, the Centers for Disease Control confirmed the first Omicron variant case in the United States. The travel-related case was an 18 to 49-year-old male tested in the San Francisco area. They were fully vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine but not eligible for a booster because six months hadn’t passed since their second shot. They returned from South Africa on November 22 and tested on November 29. They have mild symptoms and are quarantined at home.
Late tonight, California officials reported a second travel-related case in Los Angeles county. That person traveled from South Africa to Los Angeles via London and returned on November 22. They are fully vaccinated but did not receive a booster. They are experiencing mild symptoms and are quarantined at home. Health officials reported they have already contacted and tested all close contacts, and didn’t find any new cases.
This morning Minnesota officials reported a community transmission case. The person identified as male, traveled to New York City to attend an anime convention at the Javits Center from November 19 to 21. The event had 53,000 attendees. They were fully vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine and had received a booster in early November.
Around lunchtime, Colorado officials reported a travel-related case. The woman was fully vaccinated but had not received a booster. She told authorities she had worn a mask during all her travels and developed symptoms after returning home from southern Africa last week. She has mild symptoms and is quarantined at home.
In the late afternoon, New York Governor Kathy Hochul reported five cases in the metro New York City area. There wasn’t little information available on each case, which is a combination of community transmission and travel-related. Two were in Queens, two in Brooklyn, one in Suffolk County, and one was not identified. The condition and vaccination status weren’t readily available.
Close to press time, officials in Hawaii reported their first case of an unvaccinated individual. The person had not traveled so officials believe it was caused by community transmission. The person is unvaccinated and was previously infected with COVID. They were tested on November 29, and currently are experiencing moderate symptoms. The press release from the State of Hawaii Department of Health did not indicate if they were hospitalized.
President Joe Biden announces winter battle plan to fight COVID
Under the threat of letting the United States default on its national debt, President Joe Biden conceded he would not push further vaccine mandates and announced other measures to combat COVID and the Omicron variant.
Requiring travelers entering the country by air to test negative for Covid-19 within a day of departure, regardless of vaccination status or nationality
Extending the requirement that masks be worn on airplanes, trains and public transportation to March 18
Requiring private health insurance companies to cover 100% of the cost of at-home tests for COVID
Public education to encourage 100 million eligible adults to get boosters shots
Editor’s Note: Consider us very underwhelmed.
Global update
New Omicron variant cases and hospitalizations skyrocket in South Africa
The number of new COVID cases and hospitalizations in South Africa is increasing at an alarming rate, with officials concerned that a record peak in infections is only 14 to 21 days away.
The South Africa Department of Health (SADOH) reported 74% of all detected COVID cases in November and 90% of new cases in the last week of the month were the Omicron variant. New cases have increased exponentially since November 24, the same day South African officials alerted the World Health Organization of the new variant.
Officials haven’t provided specifics on how much more transmissible Omicron is to previous variants, only saying that is higher.
New COVID cases in South Africa November 11 to December 2, 2021
SADOH reported 11,535 new cases today, an increase of 468% from a week ago. The 7 day rolling average for new cases jumped to 5,093. South Africa is testing about 52,000 people a day as the positivity rate increase at a significant rate. Officials reported 22.4% of the tests performed on Wednesday as positive for COVID infection.
In Gauteng Province, home to 15.7 million people, the number of hospitalized patients increased 23.4% overnight, jumping from 1,035 to 1,351 total patients. ICU patients increased by 38.5% while people needing oxygen held steady at 15% and ventilator use increased from 27 to 30.
Study from South Africa indicates COVID reinfection risk is very high
Researchers look at data from 2.8 million individuals who had lab-confirmed COVID positive tests at least 90 days before November 27, 2021. Among that group, they identified 35,670 lab-confirmed reinfections. The study found that reinfection with the Beta or Delta variant was infrequent, with disease acquired immunity providing protection. The research did not take the severity of illness into consideration for the initial or subsequent infections.
Reinfection rates from November 1 to November 27 increased by 240%, indicating that natural immunity may not provide much benefit. The results of the study could have implications on the effectiveness of monoclonal antibodies, but more data is required.
The study was done by a number of respected individuals but has not been peer-reviewed.
Disinformation
Although some officials have stated that Omicron cases appear to be mild, disinformation campaigns have latched on to these statements and are claiming an infection is no worse than a cold or flu.
On November 26 and again on November 28, Dr. Angleique Coetzee said that the infections she saw in her private practice were ‘very mild.’ On November 28 she expanded her statement to say that the observation was ‘not anecdotally’ and other clinicians were echoing her findings. She also stated that hospitalizations were not increasing. Her comments were addressed in a World Health Organization Omicron update on the same day.
“There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants. Initial reported infections were among university students—younger individuals who tend to have more mild disease—but understanding the level of severity of the Omicron variant will take days to several weeks.”
We do not believe that Dr. Coetzee is actively spreading disinformation and is speaking from her direct experience as a clinician. We also believe that people are misunderstanding what a ‘mild’ case of COVID means. A mild case is a case that doesn’t require clinical intervention or hospitalizations. With Covid-19 that’s more than a cold or the flu.
Dr. Rudo Mathivha is the head of critical care at Baragwanath Hospital in Soweto, a level 1 trauma center and the largest hospital in the Southern Hemisphere with 3,400 beds. Dr. Mathivha did a series of interviews in South Africa yesterday and reported she was seeing an increase in hospital admissions in children under 5 years old accompanied by a dramatic increase in patients needing high care and admission to the ICU.
“The number of ill patients presenting to hospitals has increased exponentially,” she said.
“We are seeing definitely a change in the demographic profile of patients. We are seeing toddlers under five presenting with symptoms and they are sick enough to require admission and to require supplemental oxygen.”
Researchers don’t know how severe Omicron infections will be at this time, and anyone making claims on the severity, either way, is not presenting informed information. Anyone claiming that Omicron is just a cold is spreading disinformation.
[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) Public health officials are scrambling to understand the seriousness of the Omicron Covid-19 variant as a growing list of nations report probable and confirmed cases.
First confirmed on November 11 among four people from Botswana who had returned from traveling to neighboring South Africa, new cases in the nation of 59 million have leaped from 356 on the 11th to 3,220 on Saturday. Test positivity also increased dramatically in the last 16 days climbing from 1.1% to 9.2%. Test positivity over 5% is an indicator of under testing and over 7% is a signal there is growing community transmission.
Confirmed COVID cases in South Africa from November 11 to November 27, Data from South Africa Ministry of Health COVID Daily Report Dashboard
On Friday, the World Health Organization (WHO) named the variant formerly known at B.1.1.529, Omicron, and labeled it a Variant of Concern (VOC). The variant has more than 50 mutations from the original COVID strain and shares many mutations with other VOCs. There are 32 mutations on the spike proteins, which can potentially impact transmissibility and increase the level of vaccine escape the Delta variant has.
Before the WHO met on Friday, new cases were confirmed in Israel, Belgium, and Hong Kong. By Saturday, Italy, England, Germany, and the Czech Republic have reported confirmed cases. Netherlands officials stopped two flights arriving from Johannesburg and retested more than 650 people for Covid-19, finding 61 new cases. The people who tested positive have been placed in isolation and their cases are being genetically sequenced to determine which variant they have.
On Friday evening all but two confirmed cases of the Omicron variant outside of the African continent were travel-related. One case in Belgium appears to have been caused by community spread. In Hong Kong, a person in a quarantine hotel became infected by another COVID positive occupant “across the hall.” The case detected in Belgium involves an unvaccinated individual while the Hong Kong case involves a person vaccinated in May or June.
Disinformation is spreading that cases are only among the vaccinated. South Africa had some early success in rolling out the COVID vaccine, but today only 24.11% of the population is fully vaccinated. Further misinformation that vaccines created the mutation isn’t supported or factual. Vaccines prevent mutations by reducing the number of people who can be infected and only 6% of all Africans are vaccinated against COVID. Because most recreational international travel requires a person to be fully vaccinated, travel-related cases are creating a short-term data fallacy.
Many nations including the United States and Canada have announced travel restrictions or bans to a varying list of six to ten countries in the southern part of Africa. Starting Sunday, air travel from South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi will be restricted to US citizens and lawfully permanent residents. Delta and United Airlines have direct flights to South Africa from the United States.
A chorus of epidemiologists and health officials are calling the restrictions ineffective and politically motivated.
Based on the history of other variants it is likely Omicron was circulating before its November 9 detection. The United States relaxed air travel restrictions on November 8. There are no confirmed or suspected cases in North America, but infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci told reporters it is “possibly” already here.
One mutation is working in favor of public health and helping track the spread of the new variant. Omicron is missing a protein, and the absence can be detected by a PCR test. Genomic sequencing is still required for final confirmation, but the mutation makes probable cases easy to detect.
Pfizer and its Germany partner BioNTech as well as Moderna announced on Friday there were studying the efficacy of the currently available COVID vaccines and have plans to create an update if required. Both indicated research would take approximately two weeks and Pfizer stated a new vaccine could be available in 100 days, pending regulatory approval.
“From the beginning, we have said that as we seek to defeat the pandemic, it is imperative that we are proactive as the virus evolves,” said Moderna’s Chief Executive Officer Stéphane Bancel. “We have three lines of defense that we are advancing in parallel: we have already evaluated a higher dose booster of mRNA-1273, second, we are already studying two multi-valent booster candidates in the clinic that were designed to anticipate mutations such as those that have emerged in the Omicron variant and data is expected in the coming weeks, and third, we are rapidly advancing an Omicron-specific booster candidate.”
Doctors at UW Medicine in Seattle are studying the effectiveness of antiviral medications against the new strain. Dr. Deborah Fuller, speaking with local TV station KCPQ, did not specifically state if monoclonal antibodies such as Regeneron, molnupiravir by Merck, or Paxlovid by Pfizer were being studied.
Regeneron has been an effective early treatment for COVID and is credited with preventing as many as 10,000 hospitalizations in Florida. Some of the mutations indicate that Omicron may be able to resist or escape the drug. Molnupiravir is an antiviral developed in 2019 as a treatment for Influenza, Ebola, and other viral infections. Research showed the oral medication halved severe Covid-19 infections and deaths and is pending Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Paxlovid was developed as a therapeutic for Covid-19 and was 89% effective at preventing hospitalization. The antiviral is also an oral medication and is being reviewed by the FDA to receive a EUA.
Molnupiravir is an antiviral medication currently under evaluation by the FDA that has shown strong promise as a viable COVID treatment
New York Governor Kathy Hochul declared a state of emergency on Friday evening ahead of any new case spikes. The declaration goes into effect on December 3 and will enable the state to increase hospital capacity and release funds to hire additional staff and medical supplies. When the United States State Department eased travel restrictions on November 8, New York City was the number one chosen destination for European travelers. Orlando and Phoenix were number two and three.
A lot more will be known in the next two to four weeks about Omicron. The three questions epidemiologists will be working to answer include does Omicron spread faster than Delta, can Omicron escape some of our therapies and public health measures, and if those sickened by the new variant suffer from equal, more severe, or more mild symptoms.
Public health officials recommend that getting vaccinated and getting your booster if you’re eligible, wearing masks, avoiding crowded indoor spaces, and deferring travel are the best lines of defense until more is known. People who feel sick should not dismiss their symptoms as a cold or flu and should test for COVID. A positive result with a home test should be followed up with a PCR test to confirm the results and help public health track which variants are spreading.
The Washington State Department of Health is closed from Thursday to Sunday for the Thanksgiving holiday and has not made any statement.
As of Saturday afternoon, the number of confirmed cases globally can be counted in the dozens – caution and not panic should be the word of the day.
[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) World health officials are alarmed due to a new fast-spreading Covid-19 variant in South Africa causing the World Health Organization to hold an emergency meeting as Asian stock markets plunged and the Dow Jones futures dropped 735 points.
The new variant, so far identified as B.1.1.529 has not been named, but the WHO is expected to assign it a name today, likely the Nu variant.
The variant was first detected in Botswana but has quickly spread in South Africa and two travel-related cases have been confirmed in Hong Kong. Botswana officials stated the four detected cases are among fully vaccinated individuals. in South Africa, cases are increasing rapidly in Gauteng Province, home to Johannesburg and one of the largest air travel hubs on the continent. In the span of a week, new cases went from a cluster to growing so fast scientists believe it has achieved community spread.
Officials in the U.K. are taking no chances. Health Secretary Sajid Javid announced that six African nations – South Africa, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho, and Eswatini – have been placed on the red list, placing strict rules on air travel.
Starting on Friday, any non-UK and Irish residents will be banned from entering England if they have been in the red list countries in the last ten days. Beginning Sunday, British nationals who have been in those countries will be required to quarantine upon entry. Additionally, health officials in the UK are asking anyone who has traveled to the impacted regions to get a PCR test as soon as possible.
South Africa’s Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said the travel restrictions “seems to have been rushed,” in a statement where he expressed concern over the impact on tourism and business.
Israel and Singapore joined the U.K. early on Friday and added Mozambique to their travel restriction lists.
New case rate growth is much faster than Delta, which indicates the potential for a very high R0, or “r-naught,” which is the measure of how transmissible a communicable disease is. In little more than two weeks, B.1.1.529 has grown to almost 90% of all detected cases in South Africa.
According to Johns Hopkins University, only 24.11% of South Africans are fully vaccinated which would aid a new variant to spread unchecked. Health officials in South Africa and with the WHO are concerned that the new variant is circulating more widely than current data suggests.
The B.1.1.529 has more than 50 mutations, which is significantly higher than any other viable variant previously seen. More than 30 of those alternations are changes to the spike protein, which is the mechanism that enables the SARS-CoV-2 virus to identify hosts cell and is the primary target of the body’s immune response.
B.1.1.529 has more than twice the number of mutations as the Delta variant
In a report published by the Journal Nature, Penny Moore, a virologist at the University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, indicated that computer models suggest not only does B.1.1.529 have mutations that are already known to aid in evading an immune response from B cells but could fool the body’s T cells.
B cells do the yeoman’s work of fighting virus infections, but have a shorter memory and can be tricked by a smaller set of mutations. T cells are the second line of immune defense with better memory and capabilities to spot mutations. When T cells identify a threat that was initially missed, they summon B cells to aid in the response. This is how disease acquired and vaccine immune response works. If the new variant is capable of evading T cells then the benefits of vaccine immunity would be reduced and disease acquired immunity could be rendered ineffective.
Disease acquired and vaccine immunity works the same. Antibodies bind to the spike proteins preventing the virus from entering cells so it can replicate. If the antibodies can’t bind to spike mutations and the mutations still enable the SARS-CoV-2 virus to identify host cells, the virus can spread inside the body unchecked causing a Covid-19 infection.
Another challenge is if these findings are accurate – the new variant may be capable of outmaneuvering monoclonal antibodies – blunting a critical early treatment.
One mutation is helping scientists track the spread of the new variant. A specific mutation to the spike protein enables researchers to identify the variant through a standard PCR test instead of waiting for genomic sequencing.
Currently, there are more questions than answers. Researchers know the new variant is spreading rapidly in South Africa and causing a new surge. What is not known is if the rapid spread is being driven by a mostly unvaccinated population or because it is more transmissible. It also is not known if the new variant causes equal, more severe, or mild illness. There is no data about the capability the new antivirals Molnupiravir and Paxlovid could have in fighting B.1.1.529.
It is important to note that Beta, Gamma, and Mu were previous variants found to have high resistance to vaccine and disease acquired immunity but weren’t very transmissible. All three variants faded out because Delta was more contagious. In the simplest terms, Delta outbred the other variants. A key requirement for a new variant to spread rapidly would be the capability to outrun Delta.
Most important of all, there is no concrete scientific evidence that B1.1.529 is evading viral vector or mRNA-based vaccines. Previous variants have taken months to identify while this one was found, sequenced, and placed under investigation in a matter of days.
No cases have been detected in North America or any United States territories.
Knowledge is the best tool to fight against fear. A wise person chooses to be informed so they can make sound decisions. To join the fight against COVID misinformation, you can share this update through your social media platform of choice.
[KING COUNTY, Wash.] – (MTN) On November 24 the fifth wave came to an end with Washington state falling below high transmission for COVID. Despite the good news and 26 counties with moderate to low transmission rates, the number of new Covid-19 cases mostly among the unvaccinated is well above spring 2021 levels. Across the United States, epidemiologists are open about their worry of normal travel, family gatherings, and surging cases where the weather has turned cold.
In Washington, new case rates among every age group fell below high transmission for the first time since Malcontent News started tracking the data. Rates among the most vaccinated population, those 65 and older are the lowest while infection rates for children birth to 19 are the highest.
Six GOP state senators, five that are unvaccinated, are suing over announced COVID protocols in Olympia for the upcoming legislative session.
Officials in two counties are reporting significant Covid-19 outbreaks in their jails, and the Department of Corrections has had 94 cases at Cedar Creek Correction Center in the last 30 days. Staff at county jails outside of King County are not required to be vaccinated.
Almost 1 in 6 children 5 to 11 in Washington state have received their first dose of the Pfizer COVID vaccine in under two weeks.
A Washington paper mill has been fined almost $140,000 after an investigation into a Covid-19 outbreak at the facility that left one worker dead.
KING 5 did an investigation into a medical clinic in Ellensburg which revealed Dr. Anna Elperin allegedly running a COVID vaccine medical exemption mill. Dr. Elperin was charging patients $150 to $200 cash for exemptions.
No promotional consideration has been given, or requested from the n95 project or any manufacturer of masks
Washington State Update for November 24, 2021
Washington state Covid-19 update
Over 11.75 million people have traveled by air since Friday with Thanksgiving kicking off the holiday season tomorrow. AAA predicts another 48.3 million will travel by car, only slightly below the 49.9 million who took to the road in 2019 before COVID. All eyes will be on new case rate numbers late next week.
New cases in Washington are at the lowest level since late July, but higher than where experts had hoped they would be at this point. The data continues to support that 70% or more of the total population has a significant impact on reducing the transmission of COVID.
Percent of Total Population Fully Vaccinated
Total Population in Group
Average 14-Day New Case Rate
70.00% or above (3 counties)
2,343,250
143.8
60.00% to 69.99% (5 counties)
1,374,000
302.7
50.00% to 59.99% (16 counties)
3,532,200
252.9
40.00% to 49.99% (9 counties)
375,575
259.8
32.00% to 39.99% (6 counties)
151,850
224.5
14-Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate for Total Population, Adjusted for Population by County
Through November 23, Washington’s statewide 14-day rolling average is 228.7 Covid-19 cases per 100K, and the 7 day rolling average is 83.7. You can mark November 23, 2021 on you calendar as the day the fifth wave ended in Washington state.
Only Chelan (452.6) and Douglas (446.9) Counties have new case rates over 400.0.
Twenty-six counties representing 5.35 million Washingtonians have a 7 day moving average case rate under 100. Also in good news, every age group is now below “high transmission” rates. New case rates remain higher among people under 50 years old.
Age Group
7-Day Case Rate
7-Day Hospitalization Rate
Ages 0-11
97.8
0.5
Ages 12-19
92.3
0.5
Ages 20-34
94.7
2.2
Ages 35-49
96.2
4.6
Ages 50-64
72.7
7.4
Ages 65-79
48.8
10.2
Ages 80+
57.3
21.0
7-day case rate and 7-day hospitalization rate is per 100K within the age group – the target for 7-day case rate is <25.0, but there are other factors such as vaccination rates within the age groups, how many total tests within the 7-day period, and the positivity rate within each age group
Six GOP state senators suing over Washington House’s Covid-19 protocols
Six GOP state representatives including anti-vaccination event favorite Bob Walsh are suing Democratic leaders over COVID protocols outlined for the upcoming legislative session. Five of the six plaintiffs are unvaccinated according to their lawsuit.
The plan allows a limited number of vaccinated members to be on the floor, but the exact number will be “maximized based on needs for social distancing.” Unvaccinated members who wish to be in their on-campus offices during the session must receive a negative test three days a week. Members will not need access to the floor to vote on bills.
The measure was approved last Thursday by the Executive Rules Committee. House Speaker Laurie Jinkins has said the lawsuit is “without merit” and her focus will be on 2022.
Multiple COVID outbreaks among Washington State prisons and county jails
Outbreaks of Covid-19 among inmates have been reported at three different correctional institutions in Washington state.
Clark County Jail in Vancouver, Washington reported there are approximately 30 inmates who are COVID positive.
In Yakima, the Yakima County Jail reported 47 inmates and 4 staffers had Covid-19.
In Littlerock, the Cedar Creek Corrections Center has reported 94 confirmed COVID cases over the last 30 days.
Almost 1 in 6 Washington kids age 5 to 11 have received their first dose of the COVID vax
Two weeks after vaccinations for 5 to 11-year-olds were authorized by the FDA, the DOH is reporting 101,103 eligible children have received their first dose, about 15% of all eligible kids in Washington.
The Pfizer vaccine Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) was amended to include 5 to 11-year-olds. They receive two smaller doses and reach fully vaccinated after five weeks. Initial data indicates that due to the stronger immune response of children and adolescents, a booster or third dose is not needed. That could change with time or if another variant emerges that is vaccine-resistant.
Washington paper mill fined $140,000 after L&I investigation into COVID deaths
An inspection by the Department of Labor & Industries reportedly revealed that during March and April, 15 workers who worked at the same machine at WestRock Services LLC tested positive for COVID-19. Of the 15, one worker reportedly died and two others were hospitalized from complications of the virus. Neither the death nor the hospitalizations were allegedly reported to L&I as required.
The inspection also reportedly revealed that in one instance, a machine operator recovering from coronavirus told WestRock’s onsite nurse he was having difficulty walking, was in pain, and was having shortness of breath, while another worker at the same machine had already been sent home after testing positive for COVID-19 the same morning.
L&I fined WestRock $139,832.00 for not following COVID-19 protocols and failing to report a death and hospitalizations to L&I. A formal complaint was filed with the Nursing Care Quality Assurance Commission under the Washington State Department of Health due to concerns about the nurse’s actions.
Investigation into Ellensburg clinic reveals alleged medical exemption mill
A months-long investigation by KING 5 of Dr. Anna Elperin, owner of Awake Health in Ellensburg, revealed a disturbing pattern of charging patients $150 to $200 cash only for medical exemptions without examination.
Over the fall, four different undercover investigators visited the clinic seeking medical exemptions. They had to pay $150 cash upfront, and found the staff not wearing masks, few questions asked, and in one case, the exemption is just written with no exam.
Dr. Elperin has attended numerous protests about masks, vaccines, and mandates, and told employees and patients that she believes it is a hoax
KING 5 reported that 20% of all medical exemption requests at Central Washington University were signed off by Dr. Elperin. The investigation also revealed that most wasted their money, having their exemption requests rejected.
Labor and Industries have had 12 complaints about Awake Health and took no action on ten. On Wednesday KING 5 reported that L&I had opened up an investigation and did a surprise inspection.
Second mass COVID testing site opens up in Spokane
A second mass COVID-19 testing will open in Spokane Valley on Friday at the Spokane County Fair and Expo Center on Havana Street according to a report by KXLY.
The site will be operated by Discovery Health MD and will offer lab-based PCR tests for anyone who has symptoms or has been exposed to COVID-19. Test results are usually available within 48-72 hours and are provided through a secure online portal.
Travel Advisories
Due to the impact of severe flooding, a forecast indicating more flooding, and strained hospital resources, we are maintaining the travel advisory for the Northwest Hospital Region. The region includes Clallam, Jefferson, Kitsap, and Mason counties.
We continue to advise to avoid all nonessential travel to Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, and Montana. Hospital resources in these states remain constrained, and you may receive inadequate care if you experience a serious medical emergency.
Finally, we continue to recommend avoiding recreational travel to Wyoming. The situation continues to improve but hospital resources remain constrained.
Thank you
Thank you to our new subscribers and those of you who have made one-time contributions. On behalf of the entire team, thank you for helping us keep the lights on!
King County, Washington is reporting over 85.0% of age eligible residents are vaccinated with at least one dose. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA has provided full approval of the Pfizer vaccine for anyone 16 and over and EUA approval for the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines. The Pfizer vaccine has EUA approval for children 5 to 15 years old.
COVID vaccines and boosters are free for anyone 5 and older. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.
Overall hospital status continues to improve with the Olympic Peninsula remaining highly stressed. The DOH reported 90.8% of staffed acute care beds were occupied with 11.6% of patients infected with Covid-19. There are 740 COVID patients statewide with an estimated 238 in the ICU – 123 requiring ventilators.
Statewide, there are an estimated 627 acute care and 134 ICU beds available.
On Wednesday, the 7 day rolling average hospital admission rate for new COVID patients had dropped to 63.
Hospital status by region – ICU Occupancy should be below 80%, ICU COVID Patients should be below 20%, Acute Care Occupancy should be below 80%, and Acute Care COVID Patients should be below 10%
– Alcott (3*/11) – Audubon (1*/7) – Blackwell (2*/3) – Carson (1*/3) – Clara Barton (4*/24) – Eastlake High (1*/17) – Ella Baker (2*/4) – Evergreen Middle School (1*/0) – Finn Hill Middle School (5) – Inglewood Middle School (5**/34) – Juanita High (1*/12) – Kamiakin Middle School (2*/27) – Kirk Elementary (3*/13) – Kirkland Middle School (1*/10) – Lakeview Elementary (1*/1) – Lake Washington High School (3*/7) – McAuliffe (2*/6) – Northstar Middle School (12) – Redmond High School (1*/12) – Renaissance Middle School (1*/6) – Rose Hill Middle (1*/7) – Rush Elementary (3*/0) – Sandburg/Discovery (1*/4) – Smith Elementary (1*/9)
None
Northshore
YELLOW
– Bothell High School (4*/11) – Canyon Creek Elementary (4*/14) – Canyon Park Middle School (1*/4) – Crystal Springs Elementary (4*/8) – Eastridge Elementary (1*/2) – Fernwood Elementary (1*/3) – Frank Love Elementary (2*/18) – Inglemoor High School (1*/0) – Kenmore Middle School (0/2) – Kokanee Elementary (1*/2) – Leota Middle School (0/3) – Maywood Hills Elementary (8**/7) – Moorlands Elementary (0/3) – North Creek High School (1*/1) – Northshore Middle School (1*/8) – Ruby Bridges Elementary (2*/2) – Skyview Middle School (0/2) – Sunrise Elementary (1*/2) – Timbercrest Middle School (2*/5) – Wellington Elementary (3*/5) – Westhill Elementary (3*/0) – Woodin Elementary (1*/1) – Woodinville High School (2*/1) – Woodmoor Elementary (1*/6)
Local Districts Scorecard – * indicates positive cases only ** indicates 5 or more confirmed positive cases – (x*/y) x is positive cases and 7 quarantined, quarantined does not include positive cases
We redefined the school district statuses. Information for classroom and building closures has been a challenge to obtain, both for closures and reopening. We are adopting moving any school with more than ten active COVID cases reported into the red, and we’ve adjusted the third column to reflect this change.
Based on reader feedback, and improvement in the data we are receiving, we have adjusted how we are reporting data. The Lake Washington and Northshore School Districts are now reported as (X*/Y) or (X**/Y). X represents the number of positive cases while Y represents how many are in quarantine. The number in quarantine does not include positive cases. If there are two asterisks, that indicates five or more confirmed cases within the last 14 days at that school.
The Northshore School District moved back to status yellow, with the outbreak at Maywood Hills Elementary under control. The Bellevue School District finishes out the week status green with eight confirmed cases districtwide.
The Lake Washington School District updates data once a week, and we’ve had no parent confirmed reports on new COVID cases this week.
We continued to encourage parents to request daily updates from the Lake Washington School District. This change would bring the three school districts we track into alignment.
Bellevue-Bothell-Kirkland-Woodinville local COVID news
No update
National Round-Up
Johns Hopkins University Cumulative Case Tracker reports 111,112 new cases and 1,633 deaths nationwide on Wednesday. The Delta variant continues to target the unvaccinated and a very small, but growing number of people vaccinated more than six months ago. New cases are up 14% since last week.
Update: CDC Director Rochelle Walensky granted final approval to the FDA amendments of the Pfizer and Moderna EUAs.
[WASHINGTON, D.C.] – (MTN) The U.S. Food and Drug Administration amended the emergency use authorizations (EUA) for the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccines authorizing a single booster dose for all individuals 18 and older six months after receiving their second dose. Shortly after, the Centers for Disease Control panel of vaccine scientists unanimously endorsed the FDA’s authorization. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky needs to provide final approval, but that is expected to happen on Friday.
Pfizer requested the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for its Covid-19 vaccine to be amended to include booster doses for all adults on November 9 and Moderna made an identical request on November 17. Previously, only adults 65 and over, and people 18 to 64 with certain medical conditions, work in specific jobs, or live in communal areas were authorized to get a booster if they had received an mRNA vaccine from either company.
Almost all of these people would be eligible for a booster shot. Despite the mounting evidence that immunity wanes after five to seven months, only 675,000 residents have received boosters through November 7.
Data out of Israel, the United Kingdom, and Germany indicate that the United States is woefully unprepared for a sixth wave. Israel authorized boosters for older residents in July at the beginning of its fifth wave and expanded the program to include everyone 12 and older in September. That program was instrumental in ending the fifth wave.
For 9.2 million Israelis, COVID is now endemic. The government took a unified approach, enabling local councils within individual communities to determine if their city was green, yellow, or red. Almost all of Isreal is in a “green life category.” Masks aren’t required and life, travel, business, and entertainment are normal. Israel has a similar vaccination rate to the United States but a much larger number of people who received boosters.
Multiple studies have shown that infection acquired immunity and vaccine immunity are strong for five to seven months and then start to wane. In December 2020 health officials set expectations that it was unknown how long immunity would last, and many indicated that future booster shots would be likely. Anti-vaccination advocates and disinformation campaigns have used waning immunity as a talking point to sow distrust in vaccination programs.
Last month, the FDA and CDC approved booster shots for anyone 18 and older that received the viral-vector Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
Journalists, activists, and researchers defending the First Amendment
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