[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) Washington hospitals added 92 more COVID patients between Monday and Wednesday, eliminating two weeks of improvement in 48 hours as new COVID cases rose to early November levels.
According to the Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH), there were 610 hospitalized COVID patients on Dec 20. That number rose to 702 on Wednesday. The number of patients on ventilators had dropped as low as 79 on Dec, 16, and had increased to 95 on Wednesday. Statewide 91% of staffed acute care, and 88% of staffed ICU beds were filled.
The Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH) also reported a sharp increase in new COVID cases. In a week the 7 day moving average increased 86% from 84.1 to 156.3 per 100K residents. Nine of the ten counties with the highest case rates are west of the Cascades, fueled in part by multiple super spreader events at schools in Pierce and Thurston Counties in early December.
Percent of Total Population Fully Vaccinated
Percentage of Vaccinated People with Booster Dose
Total Population in Group
Average 7-Day New Case Rate
70.00% or above
39.15%
2,343,250
210.7
60.00% to 69.99%
35.36%
1,669,300
162.6
50.00% to 59.99%
32.23%
3,339,300
124.5
40.00% to 49.99%
29.41%
268,975
77.9
32.70% to 39.99%
35.38%
151,850
80.6
7 Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate for Total Population, Adjusted for Population by County, Booster percentage is based on totally fully vaccinated, not eligible, Average 7-day New Case Rate <25 normal, =>25 to 99.9 moderate to significant, => 100, high transmission
The Puget Sound region had some of the highest new case rates in the state. Pierce County was in second place with 225.6 per 100K, King County was in fourth place with 213.6 per 100K, and Snohomish County was in eighth place reporting 144.6 cases per 100K residents. Twenty-four Washington counties have substantial or high transmission.
The University of Washington Virology Lab and Trevor Bedford, Ph.D. of Fred Hutch, estimate the Rt in King County is 4.4. Rt, or “r naught,” is a measurement for how quickly a disease is spreading within a population. The figure is an estimation of how many people an infected person will pass a disease to. In King County, a person infected with the Omicron variant is passing it to 4.4 people. In comparison, the highest rate experienced after March 2020 was 2.1 during the Delta wave.
In a series of tweets today, Bedford estimated that the time it takes to become symptomatic is shorter than the original strain and Delta, about three days, which may be contributing to the meteoric rise in cases and what may be a near equally fast decline.
Understanding how much Omicron can spread and how sick it is making people remains somewhat of a mystery. When COVID first struck in December 2019, it was moving through a population with no prior exposure, without vaccines, and no understanding of what an effective treatment plan looks like. Two years later hundreds of millions globally who have had prior infections, 25 different vaccinations, different boosters shot protocols, and varying treatments have clouded the impact of the new variant.
Several studies out of South Africa and the UK indicated people have a 30% to 90% lower chance of being hospitalized due to Omicron versus Delta. However, data out of both nations have shown once a patient is hospitalized, the progression of an Omicron infection is the same as the Delta variant. Researchers aren’t sure if the lower rate is caused by Omicron being milder or if prior infections and vaccinations are blunting the severity among those who get sick.
Researchers in the UK are watching the United States closely to better understand the severity of Omicron. Due to the strength of the antivaccination movement fueled by COVID disinformation, the United States has a statistically significant population that is not only unvaccinated but who will not seek out hospital treatment until they are critically ill.
In Gauteng Province in South Africa, Omicron has peaked in alignment with a forecast prepared by the South Africa Department of Health at the start of the month. South African officials have reported almost 400 deaths in the last week, and Gauteng is still caring for over 3,500 COVID patients.
Another factor that will make tracking the progress harder is the holiday break between Dec 24. and Jan 3. There are fewer tests that happen over weekends and many testing centers will be closed on Christmas and New Year’s Day. The WSDoH won’t report data from Dec. 24 through Dec. 26, and it will take a couple of days for test results to catch up. The same phenomenon will occur from Dec. 31 through Jan. 2. Some may misinterpret the lower number of tests as proof that Omicron won’t have a major impact.
Doctors lost a critical tool in reducing hospitalizations during the Delta wave today, as the FDA paused the distribution of monoclonal antibodies from Regeneron and Lilly. The cocktail that was administered intravenously, was up to 70% effective in preventing hospitalizations but has been rendered useless by the Omicron variant. Sotromivab is the remaining effective monoclonal antibody but is not manufactured in the United States so supplies are tight. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services distributed 55,000 doses this week nationally, with Washington getting 552. Another 300,000 doses will be ready in January.
On Wednesday the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to the antiviral drug Paxlovid, made by Pfizer. Paxlovid was shown to reduce hospitalizations and death by as much as 89% in phase three testing. The medical is a pill that can be taken at home, eliminating the need for injection clinics and putting high-risk COVID patients together for treatment. The first 265,000 doses will be distributed nationally in January. HHS has not released information on state allocations. With national COVID cases forecasted to be as high as 2.8 million per day by the end of next month, it will be a drop in a bucket filled with COVID.
The FDA also granted EUA for the Merck antiviral, molnupiravir. Developed to treat diseases a range of viruses such as influenza and Ebola, Merck reported phase three testing found the oral medical was 50% effective at preventing COVID hospitalizations. Millions of doses of the drug have already been staged across the United States in anticipation of its approval.
In November the FDA reluctantly voted to approve the drug in a 13-10 vote. After reviewing the data provided by Merck, effectiveness was projected to be 30%. Ultimately, despite the lower success rate, the advisory committee decided that the benefits outweighed the risks.
All three medications are meant to be administered to people who are at high risk for severe disease due to comorbidities such as having a compromised immune system. Some states such as Florida have stated they will ignore FDA guidelines despite the short supplies and will distribute the medications on a first-come, first-served basis.
The UK and France reported a record number of new cases today while in the United States, new COVID case counts exceed the peak set during the Delta wave. The IHME in Seattle predicts that between Jan. 1 and Mar. 1 there will be 140 million COVID cases in the United States. The same forecast estimates that Washington could experience 28,000 to 40,000 new cases a day toward the end of January.
On Dec. 22, Dr. Anthony Fauci said that large gatherings over the holiday would not be safe, even with booster shots and masks.
“There are many of these parties that have 30, 40, 50 people in which you do not know the vaccination status of individuals. Those are the kind of functions in the context of Omicron that you do not want to go to,” Fauci said during a White House briefing.
On the same day Fauci recommended skipping large gatherings, the TSA screened 2.1 million airline passengers. That was almost double the number of people from 2020 and 150,000 more people than 2019 B.C. – Before COVID.
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[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) Health officials and researchers are in a race against time to unlock the secrets of the Omicron COVID variant and its potential impact on public health as more nations report discovered cases.
Washington state is one of the leaders in genomic sequencing of COVID tests samples in the United States, led by the University of Washington Medicine. Standard PCR tests can detect a marker for a potential Omicron variant. Omicron shares a mutation with the Alpha variant that the current PCR tests look for, enabling researchers to see if a specific spike protein has a deletion. That would become a probable case that would be tagged for confirmational sequencing.
President Joe Biden addressed the nation on Monday saying, “there are three messages about the new variant that I want the American people to hear. First, this variant is a cause for concern, not a cause for panic.”
The President went on to praise South African officials and their scientific community for, “the kind of transparency that should be encouraged and applauded.”
Currently, in Washington, 99.6% of new COVID cases are the Delta variant, and 0.4% are Mu. The last cases of the Beta, Epsilon, Eta, and Kappa variants were detected in June and the last cases of Gamma and Iota were in August.
“Omicron has an unprecedented number of spike mutations, some of which are concerning for their potential impact on the trajectory of the pandemic,” the WHO said in a statement today.
“The overall global risk related to the new variant …is assessed as very high.”
On Sunday, Dr. Angelique Coetzee told South Africa Today, “Most of these cases are mild whether they are vaccinated or not. There is no increase in our hospital admissions currently.”
Hospital admission for COVID-19 by week, South Africa Gauteng Province, Public and Private Hopsital, through November 28, 2021
Less than 12 hours later, the hospital admission data from the South Africa Department of Health painted a very different picture. In the previous week, COVID hospitalizations had increased 66% nationwide and 210% in Gauteng Province, the epicenter for Omicron cases. Two weeks ago 135 Covid-19 patients were hospitalized in and around Johannesburg jumping to 580 on Monday morning. Hospitalizations at public and private hospitals increased almost equally and officials at Baragwanath Hospital reported moderate to severe symptoms with almost all patients unvaccinated or partially vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine.
Dr. Coetzee in her interview on Sunday went on to take a more cautionary position, “Two weeks from now we might say something different, but we urge…people out there please get vaccinated, listen, do the right thing, and stop going to big gatherings.”
She also added the unvaccinated should be worried, saying, “especially if you are above the age of 50, we have seen this many times.”
“There is a saying. You’re not safe until everyone is vaccinated.”
The 7 day rolling average for new COVID cases in South Africa grew to 2,275 on Monday, 90% of new cases are Omicron, and 10.8% of tests are coming back positive
The WHO appeared to address the reports from Dr. Coutzee and her reports on the severity of the new variant in a statement last night. “There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants.”
The statement added, “Initial reported infections were among university students—younger individuals who tend to have more mild disease—but understanding the level of severity of the Omicron variant will take days to several weeks.”
Dr. Coetzee saw her first suspected Omicron variant patient on November 18 and has based her statement of symptoms being mild on two-dozen patients who are mostly university students and younger, and about 50% vaccinated. In an interview with the BBC on Thursday, she stated all were in good health with no comorbidities.
Although she is credited and has self-proclaimed to have “discovered” Omicron, the first detection of the B.1.1.529 variant was collected on November 9 in Botswana and confirmed by South African scientists on November 11. South African officials notified WHO on November 24, a day before Dr. Coutzee stated she contacted South African authorities on her observations.
Despite a lot of unanswered questions, a clearer picture is slowly starting to emerge. The three riddles scientists need to solve are how contagious Omicron is compared to the Delta variant, can it escape public health measures, preventions, and treatments, and if the symptoms are the same, worse, or milder than previous variants.
Here is what is currently known about the Omicron COVID variant.
Symptoms
For children, adolescents, and young adults there is conflicting information. One doctor is reporting mostly mild symptoms that can be treated at home while hospital officials are reporting cases are similar to Delta.
The WHO stated on Sunday, “There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants.”
Transmissiblity
Concern is growing among the CDC, WHO, and a constellation of health officials that Omicron is highly transmissible. At least equal to Delta and possibly higher.
In less than two weeks, Omicron went from almost non-existent to 90% of new cases in South Africa. It appears it can effectively outcompete the Delta variant. However, this introduces bias in the data because the Delta wave had just ended in South Africa. Did Omicron become the dominant strain by outcompeting Delta or due to the absence of Delta? More research needs to be done to answer that question.
There are other variables that could explain the sharp increase in cases that go beyond the simple reproductive number, known as R0. Omicron has so many more mutations than previous strains, it could be benefiting from immune escape. Although the R0 is lower than Delta, its uniqueness compared to previous mutations enables it to reinfect people relying on natural immunity. So overall transmissibility may be lower than Delta, but its ability to escape immunity results in more infections.
Is it in the United States
Cassie Sauer, CEO of the Washington State Hospital Association said on Monday, “I think that there is almost no chance that it’s not [here.]”
The United States does not have a national standard or requirement to genetically sequence some or all COVID tests that come back positive. Those decisions are left up to individual states. It is likely that states with aggressive public health programs such as California, Washington, Colorado, New York, or Massachusetts will identify the first cases.
How long do researchers think Omicron has been circulating
Dr. Trevor Bedford from Fred Hutchinson in Houston, Texas successfully estimated the arrival of the original COVID strain in 2020, using data from the Washington State Department of Health. Using the same methodology, Dr. Bedford’s model indicates that Omicron likely started circulating between September 19 and October 21. There is no evidence to support that the variant originated in South Africa.
Credit – Dr. Trevor Bedford, Fred Hutchinson, Houston, Texas – probability of origin date for Omicron variant
Why are so many travelers testing positive
In total numbers, there aren’t many travelers testing positive. When you consider that in all but two cases the testing of 200 to 250 people on an aircraft has yielded one or two positives, the percentage of breakthrough cases is small. Headlines are blaring two positive cases detected, which is critical to know – they aren’t blaring 248 negative tests on 777 that landed tonight.
Because the people tested are 95% to 100% vaccinated, this creates a false data fallacy. You have an almost exclusive sample of vaccinated people.
In South Africa, the Department of Health has reported almost everyone hospitalized in the last two weeks is unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated. Dr. Coetzee reported 12 of 24 patients she cared for were unvaccinated.
Based on this early data, it appears the current vaccines remain at least moderately effective at preventing infection and remain very effective at stopping moderate to severe COVID.
Are the current vaccines ineffective
There isn’t enough data, and almost every public company making a vaccine announced over the weekend they were testing their current versions against Omicron. Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson announced over the holiday weekend they were testing to see if the current vaccines remained effective.
There is some data out of South Africa that is indicating that vaccines are helping prevent moderate to severe illness and the cases being detected among vaccinated travelers appear to be asymptomatic to mild. However, many of those cases were detected in the last 72 hours and more time is needed to see how these new cases will progress.
In Israel, the first three travel-related cases were fully vaccinated with boosters. One was Pfizer, one was J&J, and one was AstraZeneca. We know that the viral-vector vaccines haven’t performed as well against the Delta variant as the mRNA vaccines.
The evidence suggests that there is more vaccine escape with Omicron, but not outright vaccine ineffectiveness. It still appears to be preventing hospitalizations, which would indicate it would prevent deaths.
Pfizer said they could make a new version if required in 100 days and Moderna said it would take 60 to 90 days. Johnson & Johnson did not provide a timeline but made a statement today they could create an updated version if it was required.
There are some new COVID vaccines in development called subunit vaccinations. There has been no information about the impact Omicron will have on the research.
Is disease acquired immunity still effective
There is growing evidence that immunity gained from a previous COVID infection that isn’t supported by vaccination, is experiencing significant breakthrough numbers.
Researchers are working to determine if the sharp increase in the number of cases and the high positivity rate of tests is due to Omicron being equally or more transmissible than Delta, or if part of the increase is being driven by other factors.
The pattern of mutations found in Omicron is very distant from all previous strains.
Are monoclonal antibodies still effective
There is evidence that Omicron has a significant ability to resist monoclonal antibodies. Specific mutations may have the capability to not only bypass B cells but resist T cells (which isn’t the same as HIV which destroys your T cells).
UW Medicine is evaluating the performance of currently available antiviral treatments and we will know more information in the coming weeks.
Will the new antivirals that are pending approval still be effective
There was a report from Pfizer on Monday morning that Paxlovid is effective against the Omicron variant, which is very good news. This is easy to administer than monoclonal antibodies, easier to distribute, and cheaper.
Nothing has been stated about Monulpiravir from Merck. The FDA will be considering the EUA request this week but there are hints they will label Monulpiravir a Class C drug if the EUA is granted. A Class C drug can’t be used by pregnant women, women actively trying to get pregnant, and nursing mothers because the drug has not been tested to determine if it causes birth defects or pregnancy complications. The FDA has already requested data for Merck to understand the impact better.
What should I do
Health officials recommend you continue to do the same things you are doing now. Get vaccinated if you’re not already. Get a booster shot if you’re eligible, and over 2.4 million Washingtonians are currently eligible. Wear a mask, wash your hands, avoid crowded indoor spaces, and reconsider your short term travel plans if you were planning to fly.
[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) Public health officials are scrambling to understand the seriousness of the Omicron Covid-19 variant as a growing list of nations report probable and confirmed cases.
First confirmed on November 11 among four people from Botswana who had returned from traveling to neighboring South Africa, new cases in the nation of 59 million have leaped from 356 on the 11th to 3,220 on Saturday. Test positivity also increased dramatically in the last 16 days climbing from 1.1% to 9.2%. Test positivity over 5% is an indicator of under testing and over 7% is a signal there is growing community transmission.
Confirmed COVID cases in South Africa from November 11 to November 27, Data from South Africa Ministry of Health COVID Daily Report Dashboard
On Friday, the World Health Organization (WHO) named the variant formerly known at B.1.1.529, Omicron, and labeled it a Variant of Concern (VOC). The variant has more than 50 mutations from the original COVID strain and shares many mutations with other VOCs. There are 32 mutations on the spike proteins, which can potentially impact transmissibility and increase the level of vaccine escape the Delta variant has.
Before the WHO met on Friday, new cases were confirmed in Israel, Belgium, and Hong Kong. By Saturday, Italy, England, Germany, and the Czech Republic have reported confirmed cases. Netherlands officials stopped two flights arriving from Johannesburg and retested more than 650 people for Covid-19, finding 61 new cases. The people who tested positive have been placed in isolation and their cases are being genetically sequenced to determine which variant they have.
On Friday evening all but two confirmed cases of the Omicron variant outside of the African continent were travel-related. One case in Belgium appears to have been caused by community spread. In Hong Kong, a person in a quarantine hotel became infected by another COVID positive occupant “across the hall.” The case detected in Belgium involves an unvaccinated individual while the Hong Kong case involves a person vaccinated in May or June.
Disinformation is spreading that cases are only among the vaccinated. South Africa had some early success in rolling out the COVID vaccine, but today only 24.11% of the population is fully vaccinated. Further misinformation that vaccines created the mutation isn’t supported or factual. Vaccines prevent mutations by reducing the number of people who can be infected and only 6% of all Africans are vaccinated against COVID. Because most recreational international travel requires a person to be fully vaccinated, travel-related cases are creating a short-term data fallacy.
Many nations including the United States and Canada have announced travel restrictions or bans to a varying list of six to ten countries in the southern part of Africa. Starting Sunday, air travel from South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi will be restricted to US citizens and lawfully permanent residents. Delta and United Airlines have direct flights to South Africa from the United States.
A chorus of epidemiologists and health officials are calling the restrictions ineffective and politically motivated.
Based on the history of other variants it is likely Omicron was circulating before its November 9 detection. The United States relaxed air travel restrictions on November 8. There are no confirmed or suspected cases in North America, but infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci told reporters it is “possibly” already here.
One mutation is working in favor of public health and helping track the spread of the new variant. Omicron is missing a protein, and the absence can be detected by a PCR test. Genomic sequencing is still required for final confirmation, but the mutation makes probable cases easy to detect.
Pfizer and its Germany partner BioNTech as well as Moderna announced on Friday there were studying the efficacy of the currently available COVID vaccines and have plans to create an update if required. Both indicated research would take approximately two weeks and Pfizer stated a new vaccine could be available in 100 days, pending regulatory approval.
“From the beginning, we have said that as we seek to defeat the pandemic, it is imperative that we are proactive as the virus evolves,” said Moderna’s Chief Executive Officer Stéphane Bancel. “We have three lines of defense that we are advancing in parallel: we have already evaluated a higher dose booster of mRNA-1273, second, we are already studying two multi-valent booster candidates in the clinic that were designed to anticipate mutations such as those that have emerged in the Omicron variant and data is expected in the coming weeks, and third, we are rapidly advancing an Omicron-specific booster candidate.”
Doctors at UW Medicine in Seattle are studying the effectiveness of antiviral medications against the new strain. Dr. Deborah Fuller, speaking with local TV station KCPQ, did not specifically state if monoclonal antibodies such as Regeneron, molnupiravir by Merck, or Paxlovid by Pfizer were being studied.
Regeneron has been an effective early treatment for COVID and is credited with preventing as many as 10,000 hospitalizations in Florida. Some of the mutations indicate that Omicron may be able to resist or escape the drug. Molnupiravir is an antiviral developed in 2019 as a treatment for Influenza, Ebola, and other viral infections. Research showed the oral medication halved severe Covid-19 infections and deaths and is pending Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Paxlovid was developed as a therapeutic for Covid-19 and was 89% effective at preventing hospitalization. The antiviral is also an oral medication and is being reviewed by the FDA to receive a EUA.
Molnupiravir is an antiviral medication currently under evaluation by the FDA that has shown strong promise as a viable COVID treatment
New York Governor Kathy Hochul declared a state of emergency on Friday evening ahead of any new case spikes. The declaration goes into effect on December 3 and will enable the state to increase hospital capacity and release funds to hire additional staff and medical supplies. When the United States State Department eased travel restrictions on November 8, New York City was the number one chosen destination for European travelers. Orlando and Phoenix were number two and three.
A lot more will be known in the next two to four weeks about Omicron. The three questions epidemiologists will be working to answer include does Omicron spread faster than Delta, can Omicron escape some of our therapies and public health measures, and if those sickened by the new variant suffer from equal, more severe, or more mild symptoms.
Public health officials recommend that getting vaccinated and getting your booster if you’re eligible, wearing masks, avoiding crowded indoor spaces, and deferring travel are the best lines of defense until more is known. People who feel sick should not dismiss their symptoms as a cold or flu and should test for COVID. A positive result with a home test should be followed up with a PCR test to confirm the results and help public health track which variants are spreading.
The Washington State Department of Health is closed from Thursday to Sunday for the Thanksgiving holiday and has not made any statement.
As of Saturday afternoon, the number of confirmed cases globally can be counted in the dozens – caution and not panic should be the word of the day.
[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) During a Facebook Live with Congresswoman Anna Eshoo (CA-D) on Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci M.D., Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, recommended Americans who are eligible to get a Covid-19 booster shot to get one as soon as possible due to waning immunity.
With concern growing about a sixth wave in states that finished beating back the Delta surge and states such as Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Vermont having a late fifth wave, questions about eligibility for boosters are growing.
Some states aren’t waiting for direction from the federal government. California Governor Gavin Newsom and California Health Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly told state residents 18 and older they should “absolutely” sign up to get a COVID booster. On Thursday, Colorado Governor Jared Polis issued a directive that defies current federal guidance on Covid-19 booster shots, permitting all state residents 18 and older to get them.
During a White House briefing on Wednesday, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said there continued to be a need to prioritize those who are currently eligible for a Covid-19 booster but added, “as you likely know, FDA is currently looking at the data for expanding boosters to all populations.”
Who is currently eligible for a Covid-19 booster
Eligibility depends on which vaccine you received and several other factors.
Janssen/Johnson & Johnson
If your initial vaccine was Janssen/Johnson & Johnson and you’re 18 or older, you are eligible for a booster 60 days after receiving your first dose. There are no limitations for age, comorbidities, living arrangements, or vocation.
The FDA has approved a mix-and-match approach, and you can receive a booster using the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or a second Johnson & Johnson dose.
The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has a 1:500,000 chance of causing a rare condition called VITT. In the United States, there have been 47 reported cases and four deaths. If you were assigned female at birth and have a family history of blood clots or low platelets, or you are of childbearing age and using a hormone-based form of birth control, and you’re concerned about VITT, talk to your healthcare provider, OB/GYN, or fertility specialist.
If you’ve had a confirmed case of Covid-19 in the last 90 days and you were symptomatic, talk to your doctor or healthcare provider on whether you should wait to receive a booster.
BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna
Anyone 65 or older and received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine is eligible for a booster 180 days after their second dose. People 18 to 64 can qualify for a third dose if they have certain medical conditions, work in a high-risk environment, or live in an area where social distancing isn’t feasible.
Medical conditions that put you at risk for severe Covid-19
Chronic lung disease such as moderate to severe asthma, bronchiectasis, COPD including obstructive sleep apnea, fibrosis or prior lung damage due to scarring, injury, or prior disease, cystic fibrosis, pulmonary embolism or history of, or pulmonary hypertension or history of
Dementia or Alzheimer’s
Diabetes – Type 1 or Type 2
Down Syndrome
Heart disease such as heart failure, coronary artery disease, high blood pressure, cardiomyopathies
HIV
Immunocompromised, auto-immune disease, taking immunosuppressants, or using drugs that suppress the immune system such as steroids both oral and topical
Mental health conditions including mood disorders, depression, and schizophrenia
Body Mass Index (BMI) over 25
Pregnant, trying to get pregnant, or sexually active and could get pregnant and would carry pregnancy to term
Sickle cell disease or Thalassemia
Smoking or vaping currently or in the past
Solid-organ or blood stem cell transplant
Stroke or cerebrovascular disease
Substance abuse past or present including alcohol, opiods, or cocaine
Tuberculosis
Living conditions
If you have any of these living arrangements, you qualify for a booster.
Long-term care facility
Homeless shelter – short or long term
Jail or prison inmate
Community living arrangements such as dormatories, halfway houses, group homes, or hostels
Live with a high-risk individual with a medical condtion listed above, or live in a multi-generational household, and you are the primary care provider
First responders such as healthcare workers, firefighters, police, or congregate care providers
Educational staff such as teachers, support staff, athletics staff, transportation, and daycare workers
Food and agriculture workers
Manufacturing workers
Correctional officers and employees who work in jails or prisons including healthcare, educators, and mental health providers
U.S. Postal Service workers
Public transit workers
Grocery store workers and other retail and service employees that have high contact with the public
There have been less than 1,000 mild to moderate myocarditis cases in the United States connected with receiving the mRNA Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. Most of these cases involved adolescents or young men. If you were assigned male at birth and have a history of heart disease, or are worried about myocarditis, talk to your healthcare provider to see if the Jassen/Johnson & Johnson vaccine is a better option.
Just like the J&J vaccine, If you’ve had a confirmed case of Covid-19 in the last 90 days and you were symptomatic, talk to your healthcare provider to determine if you should wait to receive a booster.
I thought the COVID vaccine was forever
The idea that the Covid-19 vaccine would be one and done is a creation of misinformation, misunderstanding, and poor reporting by some news outlets.
As the first COVID wave was winding down in the United States in May 2020, there were discussions about having “immunity passports.” People who had a confirmed Covid-19 case could be permitted to return to work and other activities based on the assumption they possessed natural immunity. Shortly after the discussions started, early evidence began to pile up that natural immunity was short-lived. The journal Nature Medicine shared a report on June 18 showing natural immunity started to fade after three months.
The closest claim that immunity from natural exposure or vaccination would last a lifetime came from former President Donald Trump in October 2020. Still, even then, he never made a complete claim of lifetime protection. On October 11, 2020 during an interview with Maria Bartiromo, Trump discussed his personal battle with Covid-19.
“It looks like I’m immune for, I don’t know, maybe a long time, maybe a short time,” he said. “It could be a lifetime. Nobody really knows, but I’m immune. So the President is in very good shape to fight the battles.”
As Trump was recovering from COVID and considering if he had “long time” immunity, there was more evidence that natural immunity started to fade after three months and a growing number of reinfection cases. For public health officials, an even bigger concern was many people who got reinfected suffered from more severe cases.
In December, when the first Covid-19 vaccines were about to become publicly available in the United States, the medical community was already cautioning the public it was unknown how long immunity would last.
In January 2021, Dr. Kristen Marks M.D., an infectious disease specialist at New York-Presbyterian, said, “We really don’t know whether you’re still immune a year after vaccination. Some of the clinical trials will study adding a booster in a year and comparing whether that’s better or if the immunity is just as good for two years with the two shots. That remains to be determined.”
Data from the United Kingdom and Israel have shown that all immunity wanes. Although cases grew dramatically in both countries, hospitalizations and fatalities did not match the winter 2020 surges. A vast majority of the hospitalized, critically ill, and deaths were among the unvaccinated. In Israel, an aggressive booster program ended their wave where new cases have drifted downward to early July levels.
How long does natural and vaccine based immunity last
Two different studies were released in October 2021, providing insight into how long natural and vaccine immunity last. Neither offer lifetime protection.
On October 1, a study on the durability of immunity against reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 was published in The Lancet. Researchers predicted that natural immunity had a half-life of 142 to 185 days. Half-life means how long does it take for half of the antibodies for a disease to disappear from a person’s blood serum. The study estimated that after 16 months, the average person would no longer have any natural immunity to Covid-19. However, the study also stated that this would vary widely depending on age, overall health, genetics, and risk factors. The half-life could be as short as 45 days or as long as 31 months.
Three days later, the Lancet published a study on vaccine-based immunity titled Effectiveness of mRNA BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine up to 6 months in a large integrated health system in the USA. That study indicated that immunity waned from 30% to 50% after five months depending on the mRNA vaccine administered, age, and Covid-19 variants. Simply put, vaccine immunity and natural immunity, when accounting for a range of factors, have similar half-lives.
The viral-vector vaccine from Johnson & Johnson has received less research and has been administered to approximately 15 million Americans. A third study indicated the J&J vaccine was the least effective of the three available options in the United States, particularly with the Delta variant.
Why aren’t the vaccines 100% effective
It is a common misconception that vaccines are 100% effective, especially in industrialized nations. Due to a combination of high vaccination rates for diseases such as measles, mumps, and polio, and enough immunized people to provide community immunity, it is easy to believe that vaccines are perfect and forever.
For example, polio still exists in several countries, and the U.S. Department of Defense and the CDC recommend a poliovirus booster for anyone traveling to those regions. Certain members of Generation X have been advised to get an updated MMR vaccination because data shows that protection from measles doesn’t last a lifetime. Even Ben Shapiro complained on Twitter in 2015 that his 13-month old son was exposed to pertussis and became severely ill.
When it comes to the COVID vaccines, no one in the medical community said any vaccines were 100% effective, and the data has always been publicly available.
In Phase 3 studies, the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were 95% effective in the first few months after vaccination. Put simply, “If there were 100 people who would have gotten COVID, it prevented 95 of them from getting it, but it didn’t prevent all 100,” says Dr. Marks. “It definitely provides some protection, but it’s not perfect.”
The Johnson & Johnson vaccine reported a 72% efficacy rate in preventing moderate to severe disease from COVID-19 in the U.S. and was 85% effective in preventing severe disease.
The good news is that early data found that those who did contract COVID-19 after receiving the vaccine did not develop a severe form of the disease. “So even if it doesn’t completely prevent illness, the study data shows that it does reduce the severity,” Dr. Marks said. Ten months later, the early projections have largely come true.
In King County, Washington, 22% of all confirmed Covid-19 infections since January 17 have been breakthrough cases. Eleven percent of people hospitalized were vaccinated, and 15% died of Covid-19 related illness. When the total number of vaccinated versus unvaccinated residents is considered, the effectiveness of vaccines, even as the need for boosters is increasing, is evident.
Population
Confirmed Cases
Hospitalized
Deaths
Fully vaccinated
1.633M
20,252
433
115
Partial or unvaccinated
319K
71,857
3,373
667
349,000 King County residents are under 12 years old and were not vaccine eligible from January 7 to November 10
Unvaccinated King County residents were 12 times more likely to be hospitalized and 13 times more likely to die of Covid-19 from January 17 to November 3.
Additionally, a comparison of King County, Washington, and Dallas County, Texas, provides additional data on vaccination and public health programs’ impact. King County experienced the first superspreader event in February 2020, the first Covid-19 death, and had the first mass casualty situation at a hospital in the United States. A month later, Texas suffered its first Covid-19 death. Over the next 627 days, King County implemented some of the strictest COVID rules in the nation while Dallas County took a more open approach.
On November 1, Dallas County reported its 5,000 COVID-related death while King County reported 2,022. Simply put, 1 in every 530 residents of Dallas County has died of COVID since March 2020 versus 1 in every 1,137 residents in King County since February 2020.
Will we need to get boosters forever
To answer that question, we need to move away from facts and science and step into the arena of opinion. The short answer is, “maybe,” but it depends on the advancement of medical science, improvements in available vaccines, and our own behavior.
In the short term, the data is clear – peak immunity against current Covid-19 variants lasts 142 to 185 whether it is natural or vaccine-based. A regimen of booster shots will likely be needed every 6 to 12 months over the next few years.
Two antiviral drugs are currently being evaluated in the United States. Molnupiravir by Merck is reported to reduce hospitalizations and deaths by 50%, while Pfizer released a study on a medication they are developing that was 88% effective in early testing. Both drugs are oral and would be game-changers in the treatment of Covid-19.
Another way to get off the booster shot treadmill would be to reach 90% to 95% immunity, reducing the number of available hosts for Covid-19 to a level that the disease can’t widely spread in the population – so-called ‘herd immunity.” Given the resistance of 62 million Americans to get vaccinated, and almost half the world doesn’t have access to the COVID vaccine, that seems unlikely.
A third game-changer would be a new variant that emerges and is far more transmissible than the current dominant Delta strains but with significantly less severe symptoms. A version of Covid-19 that is closer to moderate Influenza in symptoms and lethality and is as contagious as measles would quickly infect the population, run out of hosts, and burn itself out while not overwhelming hospitals. This could also lead to “herd immunity.”
The final possibility is the vaccines themselves get better. The original Salk polio vaccine, authorized in 1955, was 50% effective at preventing infections but 90% effective at preventing hospitalizations. It wasn’t until 1962 when the Sabin oral vaccine replaced the Salk vaccine, that infections dropped 90% after a first dose and 99% after four doses.
If the Covid-19 vaccines follow a similar development path as other vaccines, a more effective version will likely be discovered in the future.
Why didn’t the United States approve boosters for all after the Biden Administration announced its intent
Over the summer, the Biden Administration and the World Health Organization (WHO), FDA, and CDC had a very public disagreement on who should get booster shots. President Biden wanted every adult to be eligible for a booster. The WHO objected, pointing out how some nations had no access to COVID vaccines while the United States was throwing out expired doses. The FDA and CDC also pushed back, arguing there wasn’t enough real-world data to support boosters for all.
While the debate raged, experts had a real-world case study unfolding on the other side of the world. Israeli officials started boosters for anyone over 60 on July 13 and three weeks later dropped the age to 40. On September 25, they dropped the age again to 12 and older. The program was highly effective at controlling deaths and hospitalizations, and when Israel is compared to the United Kingdom, the booster program implemented was an evident success.
On September 22, the FDA approved booster shots for recipients of the Pfizer vaccine, and on October 20 added the vaccine by Moderna. Eligibility was limited to people who were 65 or older or were 18 to 64 and worked or lived in places with a high risk of exposure or had a serious underlying medical condition that increased their chances of severe COVID. The FDA recommended a booster six months after receiving the second dose.
Also, on October 20, the FDA authorized boosters for anyone who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. As the Delta variant raged in the southeastern United States during the summer of 2021, it became evident the J&J vaccine offered less protection against hospitalization. Additionally, the viral-vector vaccines created by Astra Zeneca and developed in Russia and China were also low-performing. Anyone who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was advised to get a booster 60 days after the first dose.
Unfortunately, the ethical and trust concerns that tainted the debate in the United States have resulted in new COVID cases stuck on a high plateau for the last three weeks. New cases are rising in most states, and the pattern of Covid-19 infections looks eerily similar to the United Kingdom. A vast majority of hospitalized COVID patients continue to be unvaccinated.
The world needs to learn to live with Covid-19 and everyone will eventually have a date with the illness. The question is, will you be effectively vaccinated or not when it happens.
Knowledge is the best tool to fight against fear. A wise person chooses to be informed so they can make sound decisions. To join the fight against COVID misinformation, you can share this update through your social media platform of choice.These words have never been more important for today’s update.
[KING COUNTY, Wash.] – (MTN) The big story today is not local or even in the United States. It is the U.K. where a new variant of Delta is starting to establish itself and on the European continent where new Covid-19 cases are climbing again. With the holiday travel season just weeks away the timing of this new European surge is very troubling. Our view is a new surge is coming this winter, and if you want to skip ahead you can move to the National Update to read more.
Closer to home, new cases drifted downward in Washington especially east of the Cascades while hospitalizations remain plateaued.
State officials said some people who were fired or quit because of the vaccine mandate will probably qualify for unemployment benefits.
We have additional information on the Kirkland Fire Department and the status of 16 employees who were not fully vaccinated by October 18.
New Covid-19 cases were reported at Lake Hills Elementary in the Bellevue School District and Kamiakin Middle School in Lake Washington.
King County Sheriff employees were told to keep working “until further notice” even if they have not submitted their vaccination information. The number of Seattle Police Department officers seeking exemptions dropped further today. Seattle Public Schools reported over 99% of teachers and 100% of school principals are fully vaccinated or were granted exemptions. A small group of protesters gathered outside of Seattle City Light but for now, no one has been fired.
Former Washington State University Nick Rolovich has hired an attorney who announced on Twitter he is planning to sue for wrongful termination.
While some TV and radio personalities wrung their hands over police cuts that mostly didn’t materialize, none of them are addressing the 350 employees released by the Department of Corrections. They did however focus on a Washington State Patrol sergeant who issued a farewell in a viral video.
Access to parts of the capitol complex in Olympia is restricted to vaccinated people only through January 10, and some legislatures are very mad. On the subject of legislatures, Senator Doug Ericksen who in October 2020 demanded a special session to cut the state budget by $4 billion and furlough thousands of employees, called for Jay Inslee to resign due to state employee job cuts.
Nationally, the FDA authorized booster shots for Moderna and Johnson and Johnson and approved a mix-and-match approach to boosters. Approval of the Pfizer vaccine is expected in the next couple of weeks, and the Biden Administration has already purchased 28 million doses. Finally, multiple news agencies reported tonight the FDA is seriously considering booster shots for people 40 and over.
We are now adjusting the 14 day moving average new Covid-19 case rate to account for population. This update provides a better view of how vaccination rates are impacting community spread. The new case rate is 230% higher in the least vaccinated counties versus the most vaccinated.
Percent of Total Population Fully Vaccinated
Total Population in Group
Average 14-Day New Case Rate
60.00% or above (5 counties)
2,659,450
216.4
50.00% to 59.99% (16 counties)
4,098,600
362.5
40.00% to 49.99% (10 counties)
860,525
441.7
30.30% to 39.99% (8 counties)
158,300
497.2
14-Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate, Adjusted for Population
Through October 19, Washington’s statewide 14-day rolling average dropped slightly to 325.7 Covid-19 cases per 100K.
Ferry County (1,314.8) and Garfield County (1,303.4) continue to be hot spots, otherwise, cases in Eastern Washington are declining rapidly.
Only two counties, Chelan and Grant, have a new case rate between 600.0 to 799.9 per 100K residents, and both are in the low 600s.
Counties between 400.0 and 599.9 include Asotin, Columbia, Cowlitz, Douglas, Franklin, Grays Harbor, Klickitat, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Okanogan, Pend Oreille, Skagit, Spokane, Stevens, Walla Walla, and Yakima.
New cases by age group were statistically unchanged, while hospitalizations increased for people 65 to 79 years old.
Age Group
7-Day Case Rate
7-Day Hospitalization Rate
Ages 0-11
146.1
1.0
Ages 12-19
160.5
1.9
Ages 20-34
144.6
3.7
Ages 35-49
161.6
9.3
Ages 50-64
119.0
12.6
Ages 65-79
94.1
17.1 (up)
Ages 80+
92.0
30.4
7-day case rate and 7-day hospitalization rate is per 100K within the age group – the target for 7-day case rate is <25.0, but there are other factors such as vaccination rates within the age groups, how many total tests within the 7-day period, and the positivity rate within each age group
The USA Today COVID Tracker reported 88 deaths on Tuesday. However, that number includes the weekend and Monday.
Some people who quit or were fired over vaccine mandate may qualify for state unemployment benefits
“The laws surrounding when someone is qualified to receive benefits are going to be intricate and complex,” said Scott Michael, legal services coordination manager at the Employment Security Department, during a meeting of the Unemployment Insurance Advisory Committee last month. “Each case always has to be decided on its own merits. Small differences in facts, in timing, in what was said, what was intended can lead to very different outcomes.”
Workers who requested a medical or religious exemption, had it granted, and were refused accommodation, will likely qualify for state unemployment benefits. The lack of accommodation despite recognizing their need for exemption creates a “good cause” for them to quit their position. However, a person filing for unemployment would need to show that they tried to negotiate with their employer in good faith and had their request rejected.
The minimum unemployment benefit in Washington is $285 a week, and the maximum is $929. The amount of weekly benefit is based on prior income. Individuals who made $10,000 a month or more for the six months before claiming unemployment would qualify for the state maximum. With the end of federal benefits on September 6, a person could claim unemployment for 26 weeks.
Individuals fired or who quit over principle, medical freedom, or refusing to get vaccinated likely have no recourse.
Unvaccinated King County Sheriff Office employees told to work “until further notice”
The King County Sheriff Office (KCSO) has not provided data on how many deputies are vaccinated because of a previous agreement made with the county to extend the vaccination deadline to December 2.
In an October 4 memo sent to the 1,100 KCSO employees were advised if they had not shown proof of vaccination by October 18, they should keep reporting to work “until further notice.”
The same memo also said that employees who had not provided proof of vaccination or requested accommodation would get a letter of pending separation around October 20.
402, 292, 200, 103, 93 SPD officers seeking exemptions
Yesterday the Seattle Police Department reported 103 employees sought medical or religious exemptions, and another six were facing termination after not getting vaccinated by October 18. The Seattle Times reported 93 commissioned officers are seeking exemptions.
The department has the budget to support almost 300 or more commissioned officers. Factoring the pending Loudermill hearings for the six who decided not to get vaccinated, the City has 1,037 available cops. If all 93 exemption requests are rejected, the department will lose 9% of the current force.
KOMO reported there “could be impacts to service” per SPD. The dire predictions of moving the department to emergency staffing conditions did not come to pass.
Former WSU coach Nick Rolovich to sue for wrongful termination
Nick Rolovich is going to sue Washington State University for “unjust and unlawful” termination, according to a statement released by the attorney representing the former WSU football coach.
In the statement posted on Twitter, the unnamed attorney claims that WSU Athletic Director Pat Chun had planned to fire Rolovich “since at least April.”
Just received this from an attorney representing Nick Rolovich, who plans to sue #WashingtonState for illegal termination. Accuses AD Pat Chun of “discriminatory and vindictive behavior.” pic.twitter.com/KTOnIchKXD
The letter claims that Rolovich has “sincerely held religious beliefs” and Chun was dishonest, discriminatory, and vindictive.
Rolovich was the subject of rampant speculation for months as he played a public relations cat and mouse game over his vaccination status. Rolovich told USA Today he was filing an exemption request based on religious grounds with little more than a week left before the state-mandated deadline.
Editor’s Note: We continue to believe this is just public relations theater. Our prediction is Rolovich will receive an out-of-court settlement for an undisclosed sum with a gag order for all parties. In the end, this will be a loss for Washington state taxpayers.
Access to state capitol House and Senate buildings restricted to vaccinated only through January 10
Under a new rule adopted by a House committee last month, legislatures and employees needed to provide proof of vaccination by October 18 to access the House facilities through January 10.
Robinson clarified that the figure applies only to full-time staff with SPS, including teachers, principals, and management staff. Full-time employees with SPS account for 7,283 of its more than 12,000 total employees. The rest are hourly and seasonal personnel.
Robinson indicated 205 employees were granted religious or medical exemptions. Teachers were “over 99% compliance” along with 100% of school principals. Malcontent News estimates 30 to 35 full-time teachers are facing termination based on the data provided by Robinson and the staffing numbers in SPS before the October 18 deadline.
A small group protests outside of Seattle City Light over vaccine mandate
“They are not saying I am fired, to be clear, but what they are saying is to no longer have contact with anybody here,” said Jeremy Rowan, a City Light employee for nearly 20 years.
Seattle City Light has approximately 1,690 employees. City officials reported 1,573 workers were fully vaccinated, and another 84 have requested religious or medical exceptions that are under consideration. Based on the data provided, Malcontent News estimates 30 to 35 people are facing termination.
Despite fearmongering from Turning Point USA, the City indicates they do not expect any service-related issues.
What happens when a grid loses power and there’s not enough workers to get it running?
DOC Secretary Cheryl Strange did not provide data on how many correctional officers or supervisors were released but stated the terminations included medical staff, cooks, maintenance workers, and officers.
Strange said the prisons are safe as they were during and before the pandemic.
“We have not seen a significant impact to staff, or those in our care and custody, any uptick in injury or fights,” said Strange.
Editor’s Note: The DOC has been underfunded and short-staffed for years, partially due to Washington voters refusing to pass measures that would offer badly needed prison reform and provide adequate funding. Issues of improper staffing levels, low morale, assaults on inmates and employees, and poorly trained staff are well documented. Even if the vaccine-related terminations have not created “a significant impact to staff, or those in our care and custody,” this statement ignores the continuing issues in Washington state prisons.
Editor’s Note 2: We find it disingenuous that news personalities such as Brandi Kruse, Jason Rantz, and Dori Monson have amplified unrealized fears of a law and order disaster due to the vaccine mandate while not once mentioning corrections officers. The United States prison system is steeped in racism, inequity, and ineffectiveness. Almost 60% of Washington state inmates have a serious mental illness when they are incarcerated, setting up DOC staff and inmates for repeated failure. The United States has the largest prison population both per capita and in total numbers on the planet.
In final radio message farewell, former WSP Sergeant Kirk Schnider contradicts the number of job cuts
In a radio transmission on October 18, Washington State Patrol Sergeant Kirk Schnider stated, “due to my personal choices to take a moral stand for medical freedom and personal choice. I will be signing out for the last time today after nearly 17 years in service to the state of Washington.”
In his broadcast, Schnider accused the media and WSP officials of downplaying their role and the impact on the department due to vaccination-related separations.
“We all know in this district on the 19th there will be 51 of the 75 troopers available and only 7 of the 11 sergeants.”
Taking a "moral stance for medical freedom & personal choice," this 17-year veteran of the WA State Patrol tearfully says goodbye, forced out by @GovInslee's vaccine mandate. His wife is the dispatch operator (15-year veteran) & is also out.
The WSP reported in a press release that a total of 67 commissioned officers, six sergeants, and one captain were terminated for choosing to refuse vaccination. Schnider is one of the six sergeants to leave WSP.
Fiscal conservatives from the Senate Freedom Caucus call for resignation of Governor Jay Inslee due to vaccine mandate
Yesterday, members of the Washington State Freedom Caucus called for Governor Jay Inslee to resign due to vaccine-mandate-related staff cuts, according to a report in Clark County Today.
“This mass-termination event is the straw that breaks the camel’s back,” said state Senator Doug Ericksen (Ferndale-R). “Never have we witnessed a failure of leadership in this state as we have seen under Gov. Jay Inslee. For nearly 600 days, he has used COVID emergency powers to establish autocratic rule, refusing to call the Legislature into special session, and shutting the people out.”
“Inslee has done significant damage to the credibility of state government and has eroded the public’s trust. Now he is firing thousands of public employees without regard to the harm it will cause. This effort to punish can only be seen as the willful act of a failed governor. Inslee has failed miserably. We don’t take this lightly. But the only thing that can allow our state to heal and move forward is for Jay Inslee to resign.”
A total of 1,887 employees were terminated statewide on October 18, with the only apparent significant disruption impacting Washington State Ferries.
The state Freedom Caucus includes Ericksen, Phil Fortunato (Auburn-R), Jim McCune (Graham-R), and Mike Padden (Spokane Valley-R). The group proposed a “stimulus plan” during the same month that would take federal COVID relief tax dollars to eliminate day use fees at state parks, cut state camping fees, cut hunting and fishing license fees, and create a “school choice” voucher program.
Travel Advisories
Due to increased acute care hospitalizations, we’re maintaining our recreational travel advisory to the East Hospital Region, including Adams, Asotin, Ferry, Garfield, Lincoln, Pend Oreille, Spokane, Stevens, Wahkiakum, and Whitman counties. Acute care and ICU capacity remain limited, and the ratio of Covid-19 patients to other hospital patients is exceptionally high. Please reconsider nonessential travel plans to these counties.
We are walking back that our travel advisory for the East Hospital Region will likely last through the remainder of 2021. Current data is somewhat encouraging, and we believe the situation could improve significantly in the next four weeks.
We strongly advise against all nonessential travel to Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Hospital resources in these regions are constrained, and you may receive inadequate care in Alaska, Idaho, and Montana if you experience a serious medical emergency.
We are not adding a travel advisory for the Northwest Hospital Region, which includes Clallam, Jefferson, Kitsap, and Mason counties but don’t recommend engaging in risky recreational behavior on the Olympic Peninsula. Although hospitals are very constrained, the region is adjacent to the Puget Sound and West Hospital Regions, which have adequate resources.
Thank you
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The FDA has limited the Moderna booster to persons over 64-years old, 18 to 64 years old and immunocompromised, and persons who work in occupations where they are frequently exposed to Covid-19.
Data from Moderna indicated that a low dose provided the same immunity as a regular dose, so the FDA guidelines specify a half dose for booster injections.
Booster shots for Jassen/Johnson & Johnson vaccine approved by the FDA
“Earlier analyses from the FDA and CDC safety surveillance systems suggest an increased risk of a serious and rare type of blood clot in combination with low blood platelets following administration of the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine. This serious condition is called thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS). People who developed TTS after receiving the vaccine had symptoms that began about one to two weeks after vaccination. Reporting of TTS has been highest in females ages 18 through 49 years. In addition, safety surveillance suggests an increased risk of a specific serious neurological disorder called Guillain Barré syndrome, within 42 days following receipt of the Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine.“
Mix and Match of Covid-19 booster shots approved by the FDA
In a third decision, the FDA approved mix and match Covid-19 booster shots. A clinical trial data from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases involving more than 1,500 people showed that mixing and matching provided a positive immune response. Additionally, data indicated that millions of Americans were already combining vaccination boosters on their own.
The mix and match authorization will help innoculate vulnerable communities such as nursing home residents faster while enabling individual choice.
As an example, a woman who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine and is currently taking birth control could get a Pfizer or Moderna booster as an alternative.
“Today’s actions demonstrate our commitment to public health in proactively fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Acting FDA Commissioner Janet Woodcock, M.D. “As the pandemic continues to impact the country, science has shown that vaccination continues to be the safest and most effective way to prevent COVID-19, including the most serious consequences of the disease, such as hospitalization and death. The available data suggest waning immunity in some populations who are fully vaccinated. The availability of these authorized boosters is important for continued protection against COVID-19 disease.”
Reports the FDA is considering expanding Pfizer and Moderna booster shots to people 40 and older
Multiple news outlets are reporting that the FDA may recommend expanding Covid-19 booster shots for people who received the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer or Moderna more than six months ago and are over 39-years old.
“I believe it will happen,” the source familiar with the plan told CNN’s Elizabeth Cohen. There is “growing concern within the FDA” that US data is beginning to show more hospitalizations among people under age 65 who have been fully vaccinated, the source said.
Multiple outlets citing the same source indicated that government officials are becoming concerned about growing breakthrough cases among middle-aged Americans.
Editor’s Note:Malcontent News usually does not share or report on stories from “undisclosed sources.” We believe there is veracity to these reports due to global events and growing concern over the Delta Plus AY.4.2 variant that includes additional spike mutations A222V and Y145H.
Approval of Pfizer vaccine for 5 to 11 year olds expected to be approved “in a couple of weeks”
The White House said on Wednesday that it is ready to quickly roll out COVID-19 vaccines for kids ages 5 to 11 if the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for that age group is authorized by the Food and Drug Administration and recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“Should the FDA and CDC authorize the vaccine, we will be ready to get shots in arms,” said White House coronavirus response coordinator Jeff Zients during a news briefing Wednesday morning.
The FDA independent advisory committee is scheduled to discuss and likely vote on October 26, while the CDC independent advisory committee meets on November 2 and 3.
The recommendation the FDA and CDC will consider is two doses that are one-third of the volume of an adult dose, spaced three weeks apart. It would take an additional two weeks for the vaccine to reach peak effectiveness.
King County, Washington is reporting over 87.6% of age eligible residents are vaccinated with at least one dose. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA has provided full approval of the Pfizer vaccine for anyone 16 and over and EUA approval for the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines.
COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.
According to the DoH COVID Dashboard, 91% of all staffed acute care beds are occupied, and 15.6% of patients have Covid-19. Statewide, hospitals have the staff to support approximately 610 additional acute care patients.
ICUs are at 85.6% of capacity statewide, with 25.0% of ICU patients fighting Covid-19 – an estimated 299 patients with 52% on ventilators. The state has the staff to support approximately 170 additional ICU patients.
On Monday, the 7-day rolling average hospital admission rate for new COVID patients was 108. The Department of Health reported 1,106 Covid-19 patients statewide on October 19, with 155 requiring ventilators. The patient count is between 1,080 and 1,160 for the 10th day in a row.
Hospital readiness is slowly improving, including in the East Hospital Region. The declining number of acute care patients with Covid-19 is a leading indicator that ICU capacity will begin to improve by early November.
Hospital status by region – ICU Occupancy should be below 80%, ICU COVID Patients should be below 20%, Acute Care Occupancy should be below 80%, and Acute Care COVID Patients should be below 10%
– Bell Elementary (3*) – Blackwell Elementary (2*) – Carson Elementary (3*) – Einstein (1*) – Eastlake High (3*) – Finn Hill Middle School (3*) – Inglewood Middle School (1*) – Juanita Elementary (5*) – Juanita High School (4*) – Kamiakin Middle School (3*) – Kirk Elementary (1*) – Kirkland Middle School (1*) – Lakeview Elementary (5*) – Lake Washington High School (4*) – Mead Elementary (2*) – Northstar Middle (1*) – Redmond Elementary (1*) – Redmond Middle School (2*) – Redmond High School (2*) – Rosa Parks Elementary (2*) – Rose Hill Middle School (1*) – Timberline Middle School (6*) – Twain Elementary (2*)
None
Northshore
YELLOW
– Arrowhead Elementary (1) – Bothell High School (36**) – Canyon Creek Elementary (9) – Canyon Park Middle School (21) – Cottage Lake Elementary (4) – Crystal Springs Elementary (21) – East Ridge Elementary (1) – Frank Love Elementary (34) – Hollywood Hills Elementary (34) – Inglemoor High School (6) – Kenmore Elementary (8) – Kenmore Middle School (41**) – Kokanee Elementary (10) – Leota Middle School (1) – Lockwood Elementary (17) – Maywood Hills Elementary (1) – Moorlands Elementary (2) – North Creek High School (8) – Northshore Middle School (22) – Ruby Bridge Elementary (7) – Secondary Academy for Success (3) – Shelton View Elementary (3) – Skyview Middle School (3) – Sunrise Elementary (1) – Timbercrest Middle School (18) – Wellington Elementary (16) – Westhill Elementary (5) – Woodin Elementary (15) – Woodinville High School (3) – Woodmoor Elementary (3)
Local Districts Scorecard – * indicates positive cases only ** indicates 5 or more confirmed positive cases
We redefined the school district statuses. Information for classroom and building closures has been a challenge to obtain, both for closures and reopening. We are adopting moving any school with more than ten active COVID cases reported into the red, and we’ve adjusted the third column to reflect this change.
The Bellevue School District reported one confirmed Covid-19 case at Lake Hills Elementary.
We received a parent confirmed report of three new Covid-19 cases at Kamiakin Middle School with 14 additional quarantines.
We continued to encourage parents to request improved daily data reporting from the Lake Washington School District.
Correction:On Tuesday, October 19, the daily summary for the Covid-19 update included a typographical error reporting nine confirmed COVID cases at Bellevue High School in the Northshore School District. The nine confirmed cases are at Bothell High School in the Northshore School District. We have corrected the daily summary and apologize for any confusion this may have caused.
Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville
Upated Kirkland Fire Department vaccination numbers
As of 11:15 a.m. on Tuesday, 100 of 116 City of Kirkland firefighters had provided proof of vaccination, according to Joy Johnston, Interim Communications Program Manager with the City of Seattle. To date, no firefighters have quit, retired, or been terminated due to the vaccine mandate.
Ms. Johnston reported that one firefighter is completing their vaccinations, and the remaining 15 have requested exemptions on either medical or religious grounds. Eight exceptions have been approved, and the remaining seven are under consideration.
The City reported that there is no reduction in service levels for the community.
National Round-Up
Johns Hopkins University Cumulative Case Tracker reports 81,238 new cases and 2,357 deaths nationwide on Wednesday.
Our view – anyone unvaccinated has a future date with the next Covid-19 surge
On March 12, 2020 I wrote an essay that went viral on the situation in Kirkland, Washington, and made predictions on what would happen in the coming weeks across the United States. Unfortunately, those predictions became true.
I became deeply concerned about the Delta variant during the early days of July 2021 and just days after a collective declaration of victory over Covid-19. A combination of a nation that returned to normal too fast, low national vaccination rates, and air travel created a surge in new cases that rivaled January 2021. I noticed that outspoken critics of Covid-19 mitigation efforts were suddenly appealing for their constituents to get vaccinated, including Sean Hannity of Fox News, Senator Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, among others. The change of tone was jarring to me. Privately I told those close to me, “they know something.”
By mid-July, I was wearing a mask again. Two weeks later, I sounded the alarm a new surge had arrived in the United States. I wanted to be wrong. Delta AY.1 raged across the United States and continues to in Alaska, Idaho. Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming. As the temperatures dropped with the arrival of fall, Delta cases are predictably spiking in Minnesota and Vermont.
Regrettably, I am predicting the next surge, and I now believe another wave is coming in January or February 2022. I am not the only person that is expressing concern over the Delta AY.4.2 variant. Katelyn Jetelina M.D. expressed worry about Delta A.4 on October 17 and warned that the United States could follow the same path as the U.K.
My concern over Delta Plus AY.4.2 has increased significantly
In the United Kingdom, Delta Plus AY.4.2 with additional spike mutations A222V and Y145H has grown to represent 6% of new infections at the end of September, and the number of cases with the mutated Delta variant is continuing to increase, according to British health officials.
Researchers are still studying the significance of Delta Plus, but early data indicates it is more transmissible than the Delta AY.1 and AY.2 variants, which currently make up most of the Covid-19 cases on the planet. Delta has an R0 of 6.0 among a completely unvaccinated population – equal to smallpox. Delta Plus has an estimated R0 of 6.6. That’s just enough of a difference to help it spread.
Delta Plus is not more deadly than Delta, but it does appear to make people sicker. Additionally, it does not appear to be anymore vaccine-resistant than Delta, but data out of the UK is showing us that both natural and vaccine immunity waves after six to eight months.
While new cases and hospitalizations are surging, the death rate in the U.K. has remained low, especially among the fully vaccinated. We have seen similar data out of Israel and right here in the United States. Most of the available vaccines remain highly effective at mitigating hospitalizations and severe COVID.
We don’t know if the worst surge for Covid-19 in Russia is Delta Plus, but for the first time since experiencing the first COVID case, 1,000 Russians are dying a day.
Earlier this week, the Russian government ordered anyone over 60 to stay home for four months. Today, Dictator President Vladimir Putin told the Cabinet backed the Cabinet’s proposal to declare a non-working week and keep Russian workers away from their offices.
Only 32% of Russians are vaccinated because of their deep devotion and love distrust of the Russian government. Ironically, in trying to sow global discord about the safety of vaccines from Western Europe and North American pharmaceutical companies to drive sales of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine, the disinformation campaign spread into Russia. Worse, the Sputnik V vaccine has performed poorly, only reinforcing distrust among the Russian people.
Several regions, or Oblasts, have implemented vaccine mandates, and many have already restricted large events, restaurants, and bars.
The same week we wrote about our concern that Covid-19 cases were rising again in the U.K. Putin went into quarantine after several people within his inner circle tested positive for COVID. Putin claims he was vaccinated with the Sputnik V vaccine in March. When he went into quarantine, a Kremlin spokesperson claimed that the people infected and Putin had recently received boosters.
Across Europe, new Covid-19 cases have increased for three weeks in a row. We don’t know if the Delta or the Delta Plus variant is driving the increase outside the U.K.
Holiday travel season is almost here and the borders between Canada and Mexico are opening at the same time
A new, more transmissible variant in the U.K., growing cases across Europe, and the land borders between the United States and Mexico reopening on November 8. Travel restrictions are ending just in time for the holidays. With the Delta surge winding down in the United States, a new sense of “we won” is spreading again. Over the next 2-1/2 months, travelers will hit the road and go on vacation.
November 25, Thanksgiving
November 29 – December 6, Hanukkah
December 24, Christmas Eve
December 25, Christmas Day
December 26, Kwanzaa
December 31, New Years Eve
January 1, New Years Day
January 4, 5, 6 and 7, Orthodox Christmas
Two years away from family, recreational travel to Canada and Mexico is available again, and holiday travelers will create an environment ripe for spreading a new variant, especially among the unvaccinated.
Assessment
I believe many issues are coming together to create a perfect storm at the end of the year. The United States is weary of Covid-19 everything. Former President Donald Trump oversold Operation Warp Speed and the vaccine program as a one-and-done shot that would provide protection forever. Coronaviruses include MERS, SARS, SAR-CoV-2, and the common cold. Coronaviruses are “slippery” by nature. That is, they mutate rather quickly compared to other viral diseases such as poliovirus. Many people feel there has been a bait and switch on what the vaccines would deliver.
Last year, we told our readers and viewers that it was very likely the Covid-19 vaccines would be similar to flu vaccines requiring a yearly dose to fight new mutations. We also told our readers that the vaccination cycle would not mirror the flu vaccine but would be more closely aligned to when people congregated indoors. In the warmer latitudes, vaccination programs would occur in the spring as people get ready to move to air conditioning. In the colder latitudes, vaccinations would come in the fall before people moved back to indoor activity.
Delta Plus has a beachhead in the U.K. and is almost certainly spreading across Europe – at a slow pace – but spreading. A combination of holiday travel, continued vaccine hesitancy, and more indoor activity due to cold weather will drive another surge that will start as the 2021 holiday season is winding down.
The impact will be tempered in the Southwestern United States and the Gulf Coast because moderate temperatures drive more outdoor activity. We have a tremendous amount of evidence that Covid-19 spreads indoors at a much higher rate than outdoors.
In the Northeast, the Great Lake states, the Midwest, the Rocky Mountain states, and low vaccinated areas of the Pacific Northwest, Delta Plus will find new hosts among the unvaccinated, the elderly, and immunocompromised. There will be no will among the government or the populous for any meaningful countermeasures.
How Bad
If all things remain as they are today, I believe we will see significant hot spots versus a national wave like we just witnessed. States like Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming may not get much reprieve from their current Delta-fueled surge. The isolation that winter brings to Alaska will probably benefit the state.
The upcoming surge will genuinely be a pandemic of the unvaccinated. In Washington state, counties such as Stevens, Whitman, Franklin, Lewis, Benton, Yakima, and Grant will be ripe for another significant event. Spokane County will likely feel pressure from neighboring Idaho again.
Wildcards
Five wildcards could soften the next surge. The first is vaccination among children from 5 to 11 years old. Regrettably, we will likely see another urban versus rural divide. This fall, we gathered reliable data showing children remain largely asymptomatic carriers who brought Covid-19 into their households. Over 140,000 American children have become orphans due to COVID, and the number is growing. The more young children fully vaccinated, the more we can stamp down the surge.
The next wildcard is the anti-viral drug molnupiravir. If the FDA approves the Merck/Ridgeback Biotherapeutics drug before the end of the year, if production and distribution can ramp up, if it is effective as it has been in Phase 3 testing, and if the current disinformation campaign against molnupiravir doesn’t create widespread mistrust, it could change the game.
The third wildcard is how many people get booster shots and if the FDA approves boosters for people as young as 40. If the FDA decides to expand booster shots before Veterans Day, consider that your “they know something.”
The next wildcard is severe weather. If the United States has widespread severe weather over the holidays that cripples air travel for an extended period, it could help slow the spread. Airlines are already stretched thin after laying off and forcing 25% to 30% of pilots into early retirement during 2020.
The final wildcard is Influenza. Flu was stopped in its tracks in 2020 because masks are highly effective at slowing the transmission, many schools systems were virtual, most people skipped the holidays, and mask wear was high. Flu can cut both ways this coming winter. A significant surge of flu could unintentionally cause isolation slowing down the spread of Covid-19.
It also could have the opposite effect. People sick with COVID could dismiss it as a cold or flu, take a handful of DayQuil and forge ahead with their day.
10 things you can do to help
If you’re not vaccinated, get vaccinated. Everyone has a future dance with Covid-19. There is overwhelming evidence that vaccination reduces your chance of getting infected and dramatically lowers your chance of hospitalization and death.
If you are eligible for a booster shot, get a booster and do it as quickly as possible.
if you have children from 12 to 15, get them vaccinated if they aren’t already.
If vaccination for 5 to 11 year olds is approved, get them vaccinated as quickly as possible. If the Pfizer vaccine becomes available on November 8 and your child is vaccinated on the same day, they won’t have full immunity until December 13.
If you travel over the holidays, consider not travel by air, and avoid crowded indoor spaces. If you will be with family members and you don’t know their vaccination status wear a mask. If you have family members who are at high risk of severe COVID, wear a mask.
If you travel to areas with low vaccination rates wear a mask, confrontations be damned.
Learn and memorize the different symtoms between Influenza and Covid-19.
Consider buying two at home rapid tests for each family member now to have on hand.
If you or someone in your household becomes sick with COVID like symptoms, stay home.
Get your influenza vaccine.
Final thought
I will close with the same final thought I had in July 2021. I have never wanted this badly to be wrong, and I hope I am.
State Updates
Due to the overwhelming amount of local news, we will not do a state update today. The situation in Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming can best be described as lousy, terrible, dire, and getting worse, in that order.
Knowledge is the best tool to fight against fear. A wise person chooses to be informed so they can make sound decisions. To join the fight against COVID misinformation, you can share this update through your social media platform of choice.
[KING COUNTY, Wash.] – (MTN) Cases are down significantly while vaccination rates increase in what is almost entirely good news about Covid-19.
New cases in Washington state were down significantly statewide, including many counties east of the Cascades. The Washington State Department of Health reported 71.4% of eligible Washingtonians are fully vaccinated, and 77.6% have at had at least one dose. School Superintendent Chris Reykdal shared that back-to-school in Washington has gone vastly better than in states such as Texas, Georgia, and Florida.
It appears the FDA will not approve a booster shot for the Moderna vaccine due to trial results that indicated the third dose didn’t significantly increase immunity. The Biden Administration is poised to buy 1.5 million doses of the oral antiviral molnupiravir, which in Phase 3 testing reduced Covid-19 related hospitalizations and deaths by 48%. The Mu variant has disappeared from North America where Delta continues to reigns supreme.
Another poll was released today that indicates the anti-vaccination movement is moving into irrelevancy despite the noise you may be hearing and seeing on social media.
The Northshore School District moved back to status yellow with a significant reduction in the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases and quarantines.
Boeing announced its 125,000 employees will have to provide proof of vaccination or get a valid exemption by December 8.
The City of Kirkland provided guidance on proof of vaccination requirements to participate in or visit Kirkland Park and Recreation programs.
Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming remain Covid-19 hot spots with all four states having at least one hospital operating under crisis standards of care.
New cases dropped significantly statewide, as we predicted yesterday. There remains a significant gap between the least and most vaccinated counties but the ongoing improvement is undeniable.
Percent of Total Population Fully Vaccinated
Average 14-Day New Case Rate (unadjusted)
60.00% or above (5)
234.1 (down)
50.00% to 59.99% (14 counties)
444.4 (down)
40.00% to 49.99% (12 counties)
564.7 (down)
29.90% to 39.99% (8 counties)
674.8 (down)
14-Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate, Not Adjusted for Population
Through October 11, Washington’s statewide 14-day rolling average is 362.8 Covid-19 cases per 100K.
Ferry County remains the one outlier reporting 1,074.6 new cases per 100K residents.
Only three counties reported new case rates between 800.0 to 999.9 per 100K – Garfield, Grant, and Klickitat.
Counties in the 600.0 to 799.9 per 100K range include Chelan, Columbia, Lincoln, Pend Oreille, and Stevens. Douglas, Grays Harbor, and Mason counties are just under the 600 threshold and today’s report is the best data in two months.
New cases were down significantly across all age groups and hospitalizations decreased for ages 12 and above.
Age Group
7-Day Case Rate
7-Day Hospitalization Rate
Ages 0-11
141.2 (down)
0.9
Ages 12-19
177.5 (down)
1.1 (down)
Ages 20-34
156.8 (down)
2.9 (down)
Ages 35-49
157.0 (down)
6.1 (down)
Ages 50-64
114.1 (down)
11.4 (down)
Ages 65-79
86.6 (down)
13.7 (down)
Ages 80+
84.4 (down)
30.8 (down)
7-day case rate and 7-day hospitalization rate is per 100K within the age group – the target for 7-day case rate is <25.0, but there are other factors such as vaccination rates within the age groups, how many total tests within the 7-day period, and the positivity rate within each age group
71.4% of all eligible Washington residents are fully vaccinated
In the latest update from the Washington State Department of Health, 71.4% of all eligible residents are fully vaccinated and 77.6% have received at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine. San Juan County continues to have the highest vaccination rate in the state with 73.9% of all residents fully vaccinated. In contrast, only 29.9% of all Stevens County’s residents are fully vaccinated, the lowest rate in the state.
Eight of the ten least vaccinated counties are east of the Cascades.
Boeing to require Covid-19 vaccination by December 8 for 125,000 employees
Boeing will require its roughly 125,000 U.S. employees have to show proof of Covid-19 vaccination or have an approved religious or medical exemption by December 8, CNBC reported today. As a government aerospace and defense contractor, Boeing employees fall under the umbrella of the Biden Administrators vaccine mandate.
The exemptions would “be based on a disability or sincerely held religious belief,” Boeing said in a statement. “Boeing will continue to carefully monitor guidance from public health agencies, and requirements from federal, state, and local governments to inform our COVID-19 policies.”
In March 2020, Boeing union employees demanded aircraft production be halted after multiple employees became infected with Covid-19, and one died on March 23. The company suspended operation in Everett, Washinton on March 24 for 14 days.
For weeks, workers on the factory floor complained to news media about a lack of cleaning supplies and told of overwhelmed and overworked cleaning crews as a growing number of them, at the Everett plant and other locations, called for the company to shut down.
Last week, an impromptu protest erupted inside the Everett factory in the work area of an employee who had tested positive for COVID-19. Co-workers were angry for not being allowed to self-quarantine, a Boeing worker who witnessed the event said in an email.
“Most of the area halted work in protest, crane crews blew their horns for an extended period of time, mechanics drove their rivet guns loud and the other employees started yelling ‘What’s wrong with this’ to the management crew and senior levels. Security was called and dispersed everyone,” the worker wrote.
Microsoft, Alaska Airlines, and Holland America are other large Washington state employers that have implemented a vaccine mandate.
After 7 weeks, Washington state’s back to school efforts are going well
For many parents, even one Covid-19 case detected in a school is one too many but compared to other states back-to-school has gone smoothly in Washington.
Though parents should prepare for more closures this year, state Superintendent Chris Reykdal does not anticipate a complete shutdown of all schools, KING 5 reported.
“We have the strictest health protocols which is why we are not seeing what we saw in Florida, Texas, [and] Georgia when their schools cranked up,” Reykdal said. “By the tens of thousands, they were shutting down.”
A handful of classrooms or schools have had to close down in school districts such as Eatonville, Medical Lake, Kent, and Lake Washington, but these have been the exception.
Travel Advisories
Due to an increase in acute care hospitalizations, we’re adding a recreational travel advisory to the East Hospital Region. This includes Adams, Asotin, Ferry, Garfield, Lincoln, Pend Oreille, Spokane, Stevens, Wahkiakum, and Whitman counties. Acute care and ICU capacity have become limited, and the ratio of Covid-19 patients to other hospital patients is extremely high. Please reconsider non-essential travel plans to these counties.
We strongly advise against all nonessential travel to Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Hospital resources in these regions are constrained, and you may receive inadequate care in Alaska, Idaho, and Montana if you experience a serious medical emergency.
We are not adding a travel advisory for the Northwest Hospital Region which includes Clallam, Jefferson, Kitsap, and Mason counties but don’t recommend engaging in risky recreational behavior on the Olympic Peninsula. Although hospitals are very constrained, the region is adjacent to the Puget Sound and West Hospital Regions, which have adequate resources.
Thank you
Thank you to our new subscribers and those of you who have made one-time contributions. On behalf of the entire team, thank you for helping us keep the lights on!
No promotional consideration has been given, or requested from the n95 project or any manufacturer of masks
Vaccination
FDA says booster recommendation for Moderna vaccine unlikely
Scientists at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Tuesday that Moderna Inc had not met all of the agency’s criteria to support the use of booster doses of its COVID-19 vaccine, possibly because of the efficacy of the shot’s first two doses has remained strong.
The documents were released ahead of a meeting later this week of the FDA’s outside expert advisers to discuss booster doses of the vaccine.
Pfizer vaccine booster shots are now available
Booster shots for eligible individuals are now available statewide. Individuals who received both doses of the Pfizer vaccine more than six months ago, are 65 or older, or are immunocompromised can receive their third dose immediately.
In the Kirland-Bellevue-Woodinville area, Walgreens, Rite-Aid, Bartell’s, and QFC are offering booster shots. Additionally, the third dose is available at the CVS located within the Target store at 17,700 NE 76th Street in Redmond.
Most locations require an appointment, which can be scheduled online.
King County, Washington is reporting over 87.1% of age eligible residents are vaccinated with at least one dose. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA has provided full approval of the Pfizer vaccine for anyone 16 and over and EUA approval for the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines.
COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.
According to the DoH COVID Dashboard, 91% of all staffed acute care beds are occupied, and 16.7% of patients have Covid-19. Statewide, hospitals have the staff to support approximately 660 additional acute care patients. ICUs are at 86.4% of capacity statewide, with 28.0% of ICU patients fighting Covid-19 – an estimated 328 patients with 48% on ventilators. The state has the staff to support approximately 144 additional ICU patients.
The 7-day rolling average hospital admission rate for new COVID patients dipped to 103. The Department of Health reported 1,157 Covid-19 patients statewide on October 11, with 159 requiring ventilators. Data for Sunday was adjusted to 1,155 patients and 170 on ventilators.
The East and Northwest Hospital Regions remain highly stressed and the remaining hospital regions are caring for an inordinate number of patients, Covid-19 patients, or both.
Hospital status by region – ICU Occupancy should be below 80%, ICU COVID Patients should be below 20%, Acute Care Occupancy should be below 80%, and Acute Care COVID Patients should be below 10%
The East and Northwest Hospital Regions remain highly stressed.
– Bell Elementary (4*) – Blackwell Elementary (1*) – Carson Elementary (2*) – Dickinson/Explorer Elementary (1*) – Eastlake High (3*) – Finn Hill Middle School (4*) – Franklin Elementary (1*) – Frost Elementary (2*) – ICS (1*) – Inglewood Middle School (2*) – Juanita Elementary (3*) – Juanita High School (4*) – Kamiakin Middle School (2*) – Keller Elementary (1*) – Kirkland Middle School (1*) – Lakeview Elementary (4*) – Lake Washington High School (2*) – Mead Elementary (2*) – Muir Elementary (1*) – Northstar Middle (1*) – Redmond Elementary (2*) – Redmond Middle School (1*) – Redmond High School (2*) – Rosa Parks Elementary (3*) – Rose Hill Middle School (1*) – Timberline Middle School (2*)
None
Northshore
YELLOW
– Arrowhead Elementary (2) – Bothell High School (29**) – Canyon Creek Elementary (9) – Canyon Park Middle School (12) – Cottage Lake Elementary (3) – Crystal Springs Elementary (26) – East Ridge Elementary (2) – Frank Love Elementary (14) – Hollywood Hills Elementary (41) – Inglemoor High School (2) – Innovation Lab High School (2) – Kenmore Elementary (4) – Kenmore Middle School (36) – Kokanee Elementary (15) – Leota Middle School (3) – Lockwood Elementary (19**) – Maywood Hills Elementary (6) – Moorlands Elementary (1) – North Creek High School (14) – Northshore Middle School (9) – Ruby Bridge Elementary (4) – Secondary Academy for Success (6) – Shelton View Elementary (7) – Skyview Middle School (16) – Sunrise Elementary (2) – Timbercrest Middle School (13) – Wellington Elementary (26**) – Westhill Elementary (11) – Woodin Elementary (27) – Woodinville High School (12) – Woodmoor Elementary (15)
Local Districts Scorecard – * indicates positive cases only ** indicates 5 or more confirmed positive cases
We redefined the school district statuses. Information for classroom and building closures has been a challenge to obtain, both for closures and reopening. We are adopting moving any school with more than 10 active COVID cases reported into the red, and we’ve adjusted the third column to reflect this change.
The Northshore School District dropped back to status yellow and a number of schools reported a significant reduction in active cases and quarantines. There were no reported changes in the Bellevue or Lake Washington School Districts.
We continued to encourage parents to request improved daily data reporting from the Lake Washington School District.
Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville
The City of Kirkland will require proof of Covid-19 vaccination or a negative test when participating in or visiting Kirkland parks and recreation programs and facilities starting Monday, October 25, 2021. Pursuant to King County’s Local Health Officer Verification of Vaccination Order, indoor recreation program participants and community center visitors ages 12 and older must show proof of vaccination against COVID-19 upon entry to recreational facilities, including Peter Kirk and North Kirkland Community Centers, van trips, and any other indoor facilities where Kirkland recreation programs are held.
Valid forms of verification include a CDC vaccination card or photo of vaccination card, documented proof of vaccination from medical record or vaccine provider, printed certificate or QR code from MyIR Mobile, or a negative FDA-approved polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test administered within the last 72 hours. You do not need to show identification with proof of vaccination.
It is important to note that a home, physician, clinic, or pharmacy-provided rapid Covid-19 test is not an accepted form of validation.
National Round-Up
Johns Hopkins University Cumulative Case Tracker is reporting 116,202 new cases and 1,182 deaths nationwide on Tuesday. Many states didn’t update data on Monday due to the federal holiday, so these numbers are likely inflated.
Biden Administration prepared to buy 1.5 million doses of molunpiravir
Pharmaceutical companies Merck & Co. and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics announced Monday they had formally requested emergency use authorization.
Molnupiravir, an orally ingested antiviral pill, is used to treat mild to moderate adult cases of COVID-19 that are at risk of worsening to severe COVID-19 or hospitalization, according to the companies. It was created by researchers at Emory University in Atlanta and is given as four pills taken twice a day for five days.
Unlike monoclonal antibodies which require a series of injections or intravenous administration, the oral antiviral can be prescribed and taken at home. The drug is also significantly cheaper than monoclonal antibodies, but more expensive than the existing Covid-19 vaccinations.
Another poll indicates the anti-vaccination movement is shrinking to irrelevance
If you’ve spent time on social media or reading some of the – other – headlines, you probably have an understandable sense of doom over how politicized the Covid-19 response has become. Last week reported a U.S. Census Bureau survey indicated the ranks of never vaxxers had declined to 12%. Another survey out today provides similar data and more insights.
The wide-ranging poll covered a number of topics including lockdowns, masks, and vaccine mandates. Only 27% of Americans indicated they were against school mask mandates. Among people who self-identified as aligning with the Republican Party, 40% reported wearing masks and 70% reported they have been vaccinated for Covid-19 or plan to.
Remember the Mu variant
Dr. Katelyn Jetelina provided an update on the Mu variant today, indicating the variant of interest has disappeared from the United States.
In North America, Mu was introduced in April 2021 and started spreading quickly. However, Delta came along in June 2021 and quickly became the dominant variant by August. In the United States, specifically, the CDC is now reporting zero cases of Mu.
Hospitals are treating 186 Covid-19 patients, two more than yesterday. Resources remain very constrained – there were 26 ICU beds available statewide Tuesday morning.
Hospitals in Anchorage, Bethel, and Valdez continue to be the most impacted by the ongoing surge.
Alaska Public Radio reported an array of Republican state lawmakers and activists are pressing Governor Mike Dunleavy’s administration and the state pharmacy board to make it easier for Alaskans to get access to ivermectin, the unproven Covid-19 treatment that state and federal agencies caution against using.
In recent weeks, Palmer GOP Sen. Shelley Hughes has spoken with Dunleavy and his health commissioner to encourage them to consider supplying Alaskans with vitamins and drugs, including ivermectin, “that some Alaskan physicians are prescribing but pharmacies aren’t filling,” she said.
Three Republican representatives and a pair of Dunleavy’s appointees to the Alaska Commission on Aging, meanwhile, also testified about ivermectin at a recent pharmacy board meeting — where some asked board members to lean on pharmacists who are denying prescriptions for the drug.
There are two prominent peer-reviewed studies now that indicated Ivermectin was ineffective as a preventative or treatment. In one study, researchers found for the sickest patients the controversial anti-parasitic drug was contraindicated and made patients sicker.
Florida
The Florida Department of Health on Tuesday issued a $3.5 million fine to the Leon County government for violating the state’s ban on vaccine passports, according to a report in The Hill.
The Florida Department of Health called the requirement a “blatant violation of the law relating to the ban of vaccine passports in our state.”
“It is unacceptable that Leon County violated Florida law, infringed on current and former employees’ medical privacy, and fired loyal public servants because of their personal health decisions,” Florida Governor Ron DeSantissaid in the announcement of the fine.
For the first time in more than three months, the state is finally seeing a slight decline in community spread. However, this does not necessarily mean the state has peaked in terms of cases and hospitalizations, according to Dr. Steven Nemerson.
KTVB reported over the past several weeks, there has been a steady increase in the number of admissions to the intensive care unit (ICU). Despite the state operating under crisis standards of care, Saint Alphonsus continues to see record numbers of COVID-related and non-COVID-related patients.
Nemerson acknowledged that the hospital has shut down all but “medically necessary, time-sensitive” procedures at this time, and said patients are getting sicker due to the delays.
Amid all the challenges the hospital is facing, Nemerson said the biggest challenge is rehabilitating the staff, who have experienced trauma and mental and emotional fatigue from what they have witnessed for nearly two years.
Nemerson said his staff continues to be harassed and threatened by patients and their families on a daily basis.
“We’ve lost the war. COVID is here to stay,” Nemerson said. “Because we can’t vaccinate enough of the public to eradicate it.”
Idaho Dept. of Health and Welfare (IDHW) Director Dave Jeppesen echoed Nemerson’s sentiments about the toll the pandemic has taken on healthcare workers, asking the public to thank a healthcare worker for the work they have done for nearly two years.
Jeppesen also shared recent hospitalization data from the state. As of Oct. 9, 704 COVID-19 patients are in the hospital, 181 patients are in the ICU and 127 patients are on a ventilator statewide, according to Jeppesen. While these numbers are down slightly from previous records, they still exceed hospital resources.
The 181 ICU patients are an improvement, however, Idaho normally has 170 staffed ICU beds.
Montana
New case numbers and hospitalization numbers in Montana are alarming as the situation continues to deteriorate in Big Sky Country. Officials reported 2,227 new Covid-19 cases over the long weekend and 15 deaths. There are now 489 people hospitalized in a state with just 1.09 million people. In contrast, Washington state has 1,157 Covid-19 patients including out-of-state transfer patients, and a population of 7.76 million.
Vitalant is Montana’s largest supplier of blood to hospitals and communications manager Tori Robbins is asking for 1,000 more donations, according to a report in the Montana Standard.
Those recovering from COVID can donate 14 days after their last symptom presents, Robbins said.
As the relentless Delta variant pounds the state, more drives are being canceled and more people are working from home in order to social distance.
“COVID is making everything much more challenging. There are more difficulties to host blood drives, more difficulties to host school blood drives and more people working from home when their place of work holds a drive,” said Montana Red Cross Communications Director Matt Ochsner. “With the rise of Delta people are hunkering down.”
Nationwide, Red Cross usually keeps five days worth of type O blood on hand, but now, only a half-day’s supply is available.
“Why we’re so alarmed right now is because we usually see a dip in the summer, and then we see donations go back up in the fall, and we’re not seeing that right now,” Ochsner said. “Then the holidays are a busy time for families and that’s when we see another dip in donations, so this dip in the fall is alarming.”
It says he “knowingly and willingly transmitted in interstate commerce a threat to injure the person of another” on July 12. In a statement, the Justice Department alleged that Harris texted the threats to the victim, identified in the indictment only as “Dr. L.W., who had been a vocal proponent” of vaccination.
The victim was identified as Dr. Leana Wen, the former Baltimore health commissioner and onetime national president of Planned Parenthood. She didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment when contacted through the Brookings Institution, where she is a nonresident senior fellow.
Unlike Montana and Idaho, Wyoming officials have been working to be more transparent in the data they are providing the public and health officials. Since May 1, 284 residents have died of Covid-19 in the sparsely populated state – nine were vaccinated. Only 23 people of the 872 hospitalized for COVID since the start of May were fully vaccinated.
Hospitalization data had not been updated at the time we went to press, however, test positivity for Covid-19 jumped back up to 21.2%.
Knowledge is the best tool to fight against fear. A wise person chooses to be informed so they can make sound decisions. To join the fight against COVID misinformation, you can share this update through your social media platform of choice.
[KING COUNTY, Wash.] – (MTN) More than 8,000 Washingtonians have died from Covid-19 since February 29, 2020, as new cases and hospitalizations continue to slowly decline.
Vaccination rates increased across the state, although the gap between the most vaccinated and least vaccinated counties barely narrowed. Pediatric and adolescent hospitalizations increased over the weekend and we learned that Washington state is taking in 110 hospital patients from Idaho a week.
Almost 92% of Washington state employees are fully vaccinated or have an approved exemption and the Washington State Hospital Association reported over 88% of all medical workers are inoculated.
After multiple threats of a sickout, Washington State Ferry workers crippled operations over the weekend. Up to 170 WSF employees remain unvaccinated and years of system neglect amplified the staffing issues over the holiday.
Washington State University football coach Nick Rolovich announced he was opting for a special play when it comes to getting vaccinated and filed for a religious exemption. The day before the Seattle Kraken make their NHL debut, five players are under Covid-19 protocols.
Unvaccinated King County residents are 16 times more likely to die from Covid-19, and while vaccination rates in the Bellevue-Kirkland-Woodinville area continue to increase, Bothell and the northern half of Kirkland continue to lag behind the rest of the local area.
The Northshore School District moves to red status, with 12 confirmed Covid-19 cases at Lockwood Elementary. New cases were also reported in the Bellevue and Lake Washington school districts.
In local news, Amazon has announced it is indefinitely delaying the return of 50,000 officer workers due to the ongoing Covid-19 situation.
Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics formally applied for emergency use authorization for the anti-viral medication molnupiravir, which has shown promising results in helping minimize Covid-19 symptoms.
Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming remain Covid-19 hot spots we are watching closely due to the impact transfer patients have on our hospitals.
New cases were flat over the weekend which is significant. Historically, the data has shown an artificial bump on Mondays because it includes some data from the weekend. This is the first time since mid-August the data has shown a spike at the start of the week, providing a strong indicator that cases continue to decline.
Monday also provides updated countywide vaccination numbers. In Clallam County, 60.2% of all residents are fully vaccinated. The number of new cases in the least vaccinated counties is threefold higher than the most vaccinated.
Percent of Total Population Fully Vaccinated
Average 14-Day New Case Rate (unadjusted)
60.00% or above (5)
249.1
50.00% to 59.99% (14 counties)
482.9
40.00% to 49.99% (12 counties)
608.9
29.90% to 39.99% (8 counties)
749.1
14-Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate, Not Adjusted for Population
Through October 10, Washington’s statewide 14-day rolling average is 388.2. Covid-19 cases per 100K.
Ferry County continues to be the Washington state hot spot with 1,175.7 new cases per 100K residents.
Counties in the 800.0 to 999.9 per 100K range include Columbia, Garfield, Grant, Klickitat, and Stevens.
Counties in the 600.0 to 799.9 per 100K range include Chelan, Douglas, Franklin, Grays Harbor, Lincoln, Mason, Okanogan, and Pend Oreille.
New cases were unchanged or drifted upward with one exception – adolescent cases and hospitalizations for 12 to 19-year-olds increased significantly over the weekend. Pediatric hospitalizations also increased from birth to 11, while all other age groups were flat or drifted downward.
Age Group
7-Day Case Rate
7-Day Hospitalization Rate
Ages 0-11
168.6
1.1 (up)
Ages 12-19
208.8 (up)
1.6 (up)
Ages 20-34
174.1 (up)
3.6
Ages 35-49
180.4
7.8 (down)
Ages 50-64
128.1 (up)
13.9 (down)
Ages 65-79
94.3 (up)
15.5
Ages 80+
96.7
35.2 (down)
7-day case rate and 7-day hospitalization rate is per 100K within the age group – the target for 7-day case rate is <25.0, but there are other factors such as vaccination rates within the age groups, how many total tests within the 7-day period, and the positivity rate within each age group
The USA Today COVID Tracker reported 50 deaths on Friday. The state of Washington is not reporting the percentage of positive cases. More than 8,000 Washingtonians have died from Covid-19 since February 29, 2020. The state crossed the sad milestone over the weekend.
Washington state hospitals accepting an average of 110 Idaho patients a week in 2021
An analysis of RHINO data from the Washington State Department of Health indicated that hospitals have been admitting approximately 110 patients from Idaho a week during 2021. The number represents a fraction of total average hospital admissions, which hovers around 500,000 patients in a normal year.
The data does not provide information on how many hospital admissions were Covid-19 patients and the report did not provide a weekly analysis. Eastern Washington hospitals reported last week they were feeling increased strain due to Idahoans crossing the border looking for medical care.
With 7 days to go, almost 92% of all Washington state employees are fully vaccinated or have been granted an exemption
Data released by the Washington State Office of Financial Management provided the clearest picture yet on how many state employees are vaccinated. On October 4, 89.5% of all state employees had provided proof they are fully vaccinated. Another 2.4% had medical or religious exemptions approved.
The same report indicated the Washington State Patrol was 89.9% fully vaccinated on October 4. Last week, the Seattle Times reported the WSP was 93% vaccinated on October 7. Using that data point as a barometer, it is estimated 94% to 95% of Washington state employees are fully vaccinated or have an approved exemption, with 7 days ago.
Only two organizations with more than 500 workers have vaccination rates below 85% – Washington National Guard at 79.1% and DSHS – Rainier at 83%. It is worth noting the Pentagon has given Army National Guard servicemembers until June 30, 2022 to be fully vaccinated.
Almost 93% of the 6,608 Washington State Department of Transportation employees are vaccinated or have received an exemption. Almost a third of DOT employees work for Washington State Ferries. Three weeks ago there were 450 WSF workers who had not confirmed their vaccination status. The number dropped to 250 on Thursday and 170 on Friday. Despite a full vaccination rate approaching 93%, unvaccinated ferry workers made their presence known this weekend.
As of October 4, 1,228 state workers had requested medical exemptions, with 866 approved. Officials are still evaluating 75 requests and 258 exemption requests were withdrawn. Another 315 employees had requested some degree of accommodation, with 255 approvals.
The state also received 4,849 religious exemption requests and so far has approved 4,219 with 42 still under evaluation. Only 184 religious exemptions have been denied, while 404 requests were withdrawn.
Approximately one percent of all state employees have joined a lawsuit attempting to block the state mandate. It is unlikely the plaintiffs will get relief. Both federal courts and the Supreme Court have sided with municipalities, counties, states, businesses, and schools in a number of similar court cases filed across the country.
88% of all Washington hospital workers are fully vaccinated
From janitorial services, cooks, and med techs to nurses, surgeons, and administrators, 88% of Washington state’s hospital staff will be fully vaccinated by October 18, according to a survey by the Washington State Hospital Association.
Cassie Sauer, CEO reported in a briefing today the remaining 12% include people who don’t plan on getting vaccinated, are partially vaccinated, have an approved exemption, have an exemption under review, or are waiting to learn if an existing exemption has been approved.
“The 2-5%, I want to emphasize, is a statewide number. There are some places that are going to have less and some places that are going to have more. And the place that seems to have the likeliest, biggest impact is rural eastern Washington,” Sauer said.
In New York, the state saw similar numbers among hospital workers days before its mandate went into effect. Final vaccination rates ranged from 85% to 100% depending on the role, type of facility, and location. Vaccination rates among nursing homes and long-term care facilities lagged behind hospitals.
Officials believe 95% to 98% will be fully vaccinated, on a path to vaccination, or have an approved exemption by October 18. Hospitals and facilities in Eastern Washington, particularly in rural areas, are expected to see more workers quit or face termination.
In Western Washington, 97% of EvergreenHealth and 98% of University Washington Medicine employees are fully vaccinated.
More than 200 Washington State Ferry sailings canceled due to years of neglect and a weekend sickout
Passengers and businesses were frustrated when Washington State Ferries canceled over 150 sailings on Friday, 120 on Saturday, and 50 on Sunday. A sickout by WSF employees in protest of a looming vaccination mandate was the final blow, that contributed to the chaos this weekend. However, the sailing issues have been two decades in the making.
In 2000, a Tim Eyman led initiative slashed Washington state car tab fees, and with it, a significant portion of the Washington state ferry budget. Two decades later the state lacks the funds to replace several ferries that are far past their useful life. The outdated equipment suffers more frequent breakdowns, forcing route cancelations and smaller vessels into temporary service.
A lack of vessels, a graying staff, and unpredictable work schedules was already straining the system. Disruptions due to equipment and crew failures were becoming more common before Covid-19 arrived in the Evergreen state in January 2020.
The number of ferry workers has also declined for two decades, and the Department of Transportation has problems recruiting people who are interested in doing maritime work.
WSF workers have attempted several other sickouts with little to no impact, but this past weekend was different. Officials have indicated that even 170 employees leaving could have a devastating impact on operations – and required Coast Guard certifications will make hiring new staff challenging.
Washington State Ferries is the largest ferry system in the United States and second-largest in the world. The state operates 23 vessels that sail 10 routes to 20 destinations. The oldest ferry is the MV Tillikum built in 1959 and rebuilt in 1994. Over 70% of all funding comes from fares. In 2020 due to Covid-19 ridership was only a fraction of normal. By the end of summer in 2021, ridership was 80% of normal.
The ferry system is converting three Jumbo Mark-II class ferries to electrical propulsion between 2022 and 2024. The Puyallup, Tacoma, and Wenatchee are slated for update with the Wenatchee was supposed to already be back in service but had an engine room fire in April 2021.
Washington State University football coach Nick Rolovich applies for religious exemption
As many have suspected for quite some time, Washington State coach Nick Rolovich finally confirmed that he remains unvaccinated and is in fact seeking a religious exemption to the state’s Covid vaccination mandate, he said after the Cougars’ 31-24 victory over Oregon State on Saturday.
“I’ll confirm that,” he said. “I’m not terribly happy with the way it happened. I hope there’s no player that I coach that has to wake up and feel the way I felt today. I don’t share it (to be) malicious, but that wasn’t a great thing to wake up to, to be honest with you.”
Rolovich is the highest-paid state employee in Washington, making almost $3.3 million per year.
Several Seattle Kraken players under Covid protocols day before NHL debut
The Seattle Kraken are expected to be without five players for the season opener at Vegas due to COVID-19 protocols, coach Dave Hakstol said Monday, according to the Associated Press.
Forwards Jared McCann, Joonas Donskoi and Marcus Johansson, and defenseman Jamie Oleksiak were placed on the league’s COVID-19 protocol list on Monday. Forward Calle Jarnkrok has been in the protocol since late last week. McCann, Oleksiak, Donskoi and Johansson were all missing from Monday’s final practice before the team departed for Las Vegas.
Travel Advisories
Due to an increase in acute care hospitalizations, we’re adding a recreational travel advisory to the East Hospital Region. This includes Adams, Asotin, Ferry, Garfield, Lincoln, Pend Oreille, Spokane, Stevens, Wahkiakum, and Whitman counties. Acute care and ICU capacity have become limited, and the ratio of Covid-19 patients to other hospital patients is extremely high. Please reconsider non-essential travel plans to these counties.
We strongly advise against all nonessential travel to Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Hospital resources in these regions are constrained, and you may receive inadequate care if you experience a serious medical emergency.
We are also not adding a travel advisory for the Northwest Hospital Region which includes Clallam, Jefferson, Kitsap, and Mason counties but don’t recommend engaging in risky recreational behavior on the Olympic Peninsula. Although hospitals are very constrained, the region is adjacent to the Puget Sound and West Hospital Regions, which have adequate resources.
Thank you
Thank you to our new subscribers and those of you who have made one-time contributions. On behalf of the entire team, thank you for helping us keep the lights on!
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Vaccination
Unvaccinated King County residents are 16 times more likely to die from Covid-19
The first doses of the Covid-19 vaccine became available in Washington state on January 17. Since that time 82% of all Covid-19 cases were among the unvaccinated, 90% of hospitalizations, and 90% of deaths.
Booster shots for eligible individuals are now available statewide. Individuals who received both doses of the Pfizer vaccine more than six months ago, are 65 or older, or are immunocompromised can receive their third dose immediately.
In the Kirland-Bellevue-Woodinville area, Walgreens, Rite-Aid, Bartell’s, and QFC are offering booster shots. Additionally, the third dose is available at the CVS located within the Target store at 17,700 NE 76th Street in Redmond.
Most locations require an appointment, which can be scheduled online.
King County, Washington is reporting over 87.1% of age eligible residents are vaccinated with at least one dose. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA has provided full approval of the Pfizer vaccine for anyone 16 and over and EUA approval for the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines.
COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.
According to the DoH COVID Dashboard, 91% of all staffed acute care beds are occupied, and 16.9% of patients have Covid-19. Statewide, hospitals have the staff to support approximately 649 additional acute care patients. ICUs are at 86.7% of capacity statewide, with 28.0% of ICU patients fighting Covid-19 – an estimated 335 patients with 50% on ventilators. The state has the staff to support approximately 144 additional ICU patients.
The 7-day rolling average hospital admission rate for new COVID patients dipped to 103. The Department of Health reported 1,193 Covid-19 patients statewide on October 7, with 166 requiring ventilators.
Hospital status by region – ICU Occupancy should be below 80%, ICU COVID Patients should be below 20%, Acute Care Occupancy should be below 80%, and Acute Care COVID Patients should be below 10%
The East and Northwest Hospital Regions remain highly stressed.
– Bell Elementary (4*) – Blackwell Elementary (1*) – Carson Elementary (2*) – Dickinson/Explorer Elementary (1*) – Eastlake High (3*) – Finn Hill Middle School (4*) – Franklin Elementary (1*) – Frost Elementary (2*) – ICS (1*) – Inglewood Middle School (2*) – Juanita Elementary (3*) – Juanita High School (4*) – Kamiakin Middle School (2*) – Keller Elementary (1*) – Kirkland Middle School (1*) – Lakeview Elementary (4*) – Lake Washington High School (2*) – Mead Elementary (2*) – Muir Elementary (1*) – Northstar Middle (1*) – Redmond Elementary (2*) – Redmond Middle School (1*) – Redmond High School (2*) – Rosa Parks Elementary (3*) – Rose Hill Middle School (1*) – Timberline Middle School (2*)
None
Northshore
RED
– Arrowhead Elementary (4) – Bothell High School (30**) – Canyon Creek Elementary (15) – Canyon Park Middle School (11) – Cottage Lake Elementary (3) – Crystal Springs Elementary (17) – East Ridge Elementary (2) – Fernwood Elementary (1) – Frank Love Elementary (19) – Hollywood Hills Elementary (35) – Inglemoor High School (1) – Innovation Lab High School (2) – Kenmore Elementary (4) – Kenmore Middle School (21) – Kokanee Elementary (14) – Leota Middle School (3) – Maywood Hills Elementary (7**) – Moorlands Elementary (1) – North Creek High School (13**) – Northshore Middle School (1) – Secondary Academy for Success (4) – Shelton View Elementary (5) – Skyview Middle School (12) – Sunrise Elementary (8) – Timbercrest Middle School (4) – Wellington Elementary (26**) – Westhill Elementary (58) – Woodin Elementary (15) – Woodinville High School (10) – Woodmoor Elementary (19**)
– Lockwood Elementary (12**/22)
Local Districts Scorecard – * indicates positive cases only ** indicates 5 or more confirmed positive cases
We redefined the school district statuses. Information for classroom and building closures has been a challenge to obtain, both for closures and reopening. We are adopting moving any school with more than 10 active COVID cases reported into the red, and we’ve adjusted the third column to reflect this change.
Monday provides the best snapshot of the three school districts we track. The Northshore School District moved to status red again with 12 confirmed Covid-19 cases at Lockwood Elementary. Five other schools have 5 to 9 confirmed cases.
Highland Middle School in the Bellevue School District has 9 confirmed cases between students and faculty, and several other schools with more than 5 cases.
The Lake Washington School District updated its dashboard adding six schools with confirmed cases.
We continued to encourage parents to request improved daily data reporting from the Lake Washington School District.
Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville
Amazon delays return to office indefinitely – leaves final decision to business directors
“For our corporate roles, instead of specifying that people work a baseline of three days a week in the office, we’re going to leave this decision up to individual teams,” Jassey wrote in his memo.
“This decision will be made team by team at the Director level. We expect that there will be teams that continue working mostly remotely, others that will work some combination of remotely and in the office, and still others that will decide customers are best served having the teamwork mostly in the office. We’re intentionally not prescribing how many days or which days—this is for Directors to determine with their senior leaders and teams. The decisions should be guided by what will be most effective for our customers; and not surprisingly, we will all continue to be evaluated by how we deliver for customers, regardless of where the work is performed.”
Microsoft and Facebook previously announced delaying their return to office and have mandated their employees, contractors, and vendors to get vaccinated.
King County releases updated vaccination data
King County Public Health updated the vaccination rates by zip code, with the numbers improving throughout the region. The northern half of Kirkland and parts of Bothell continue to lag behind the rest of the eastside.
King County residents age 12+ who have received at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine through October 11, 2021
Zip Code
Percent vaccinated, at least one dose, 12 and older
98155
93.7%
98028
90.2%
98011
86.7%
98034
85.3%
98033
93.1%
98072
91.2%
98052
>95.0%
98004
>95.0%
98039
94.0%
98005
>95.0%
98007
90.0%
Vaccination rates for those 12 and older by zip code – at least one dose
National Round-Up
Johns Hopkins University Cumulative Case Tracker is reporting 22,194 new cases and 255 deaths nationwide on Monday. Most states do not report data over the weekend, and Monday is a bank holiday so the numbers do not indicate the current national trend.
Merck and Ridgeback Biotheraputics official apply for emergency use authorization for molnupiravir
Pharmaceutical companies Merck & Co. and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics announced Monday they requested emergency use authorization to the Food and Drug Administration for molnupiravir, an antiviral drug that offers the promise that COVID-19 could soon be treated by a pill. USA Today reported the two drugmakers have officially applied for the authorization.
Molnupiravir, an orally ingested antiviral pill, is used to treat mild to moderate adult cases of COVID-19 that are at risk of worsening to severe COVID-19 or hospitalization, according to the companies. It was created by researchers at Emory University in Atlanta and is given as four pills taken twice a day for five days.
An interim analysis from a clinical trial found the antiviral medicine reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by approximately 50%.
Alaska
Alaska reported an increase in new cases and the number of Covid-19 tests with positive results this weekend. After progress last week, the new case rate increased to 836 per 100K people and test positivity jumped to 10.7%. Officials also reported more than 2,750 new cases, mostly among people under 50 years old.
Hospitals are treating 184 Covid-19 patients, down slightly from last week. Resources remain very constrained – there were 18 ICU beds available statewide Monday morning. New
Hospitals in Anchorage, Bethel, and Valdez continue to be the most impacted by the ongoing surge.
Idaho Medical Association CEO Susie Keller says while the association is disturbed by Cole’s spreading of misinformation, including dissuading people from getting the COVID-19 vaccine, the complaint is narrowly focused on the claim Cole prescribed an unproven drug.
“We believe that he has violated sections of the Idaho Medical Practice Act by providing care that fails to meet the community standard of care by promoting the sale of drugs that are not medically indicated and by engaging in conduct that constitutes an abuse or exploitation of a patient arising out of the trust and competence placed in a physician by a patient,” Keller said.
Cole as referred to the vaccination as “needle rape,” is opposed to mask mandates, and has spoken at right-wing anti-vaccination events that have included speakers calling for violence and making Nazi comparisons. He is one of the key policymakers in Ada County, which includes Boise, in managing the Covid-19 response in the Gem State.
Covid-19 test positivity increased to 19.42% – a negative trend.
Just days after Wyoming hospitals asked state officials to draft plans for statewide implementation of crisis standards of care, state Representative Chuck Gray has called for a special session to block vaccine mandates.
“I wanted to update everyone about the special session vote,” Gray said on Wednesday. “We have received notification that we have successfully received over 35% of the votes in the first round of balloting. Next week, we will now proceed to the second round, where we need a majority.”
Legislators are being asked to consider convening the special session from October 26-28 according to the report in Oil City News. Gray said he would like to see the special session move forward in order to have a bill banning vaccine mandates pass prior to Banner Health’s (which operates the Wyoming Medical Center) deadline requiring employees get fully vaccinated by November 1 takes effect.
Knowledge is the best tool to fight against fear. A wise person chooses to be informed so they can make sound decisions. To join the fight against COVID misinformation, you can share this update through your social media platform of choice.
[KING COUNTY, Wash.] – (MTN) The big news today is about a little brown capsule called molnupiravir. The Phase 3 trial of the oral medication cut COVID hospitalizations and deaths by 50%, and Merck has applied for Emergency Use Authorization with the FDA. The impact of this new medication could go far beyond COVID with researchers at Emory University claiming it could be useful against other viral diseases.
New COVID cases and hospitalizations held steady statewide. A report in the Seattle Times indicated more than half of rural Washington transfer patients ended up in King County hospitals.
The Bellevue School District updated its COVID dashboard and revealed there are 37 confirmed COVID cases. In the Northshore School District, cases continued to grow at Bothell High School and Crystal Springs Elementary School reported 11 confirmed cases.
There are an estimated 604 adult acute care and 132 ICU beds available statewide, and approximately 56% of COVID patients in the ICU are on a ventilator.
The Nisqually Nation was forced to evacuate a COVID quarantine site in Roy, Washington after multiple threats were made. A post on Facebook falsely claimed it was a newly built government quarantine site for rounding up the unvaccinated.
Amazon continues to promote dangerous COVID treatments on its website.
Alaska Air Group announced they will require all employees to get vaccinated, but a hard deadline was not set.
Alaska, Idaho, and Montana continue to struggle with surging COVID cases.
Supreme Court Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor denied an emergency request by New York educators to block the state’s vaccine mandate. That’s a bigger deal than you think, and it wasn’t unexpected.
In the misinformation section, we tackle “it’s just the flu” very graphically.
New cases held steady statewide with no statistical difference from yesterday. In the South Central Hospital Region, which includes Benton, Franklin, Klickitat, Walla Walla, and Yakima counties, the 14 day moving average for new cases increased to 727.9 per 100K. The Puget Sound (Central) Hospital Region, which represents King County, was statistically unchanged at 244.5.
Percent of Total Population Fully Vaccinated
Average 14-Day New Case Rate (unadjusted)
60.00% or above (3)
171.9
50.00% to 59.99% (12 counties)
506.9
40.00% to 49.99% (15 counties)
653.9
28.40% to 39.99% (9 counties)
734.4
14-Day New COVID Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate, Not Adjusted for Population
Through September 30, Washington’s statewide 14-day rolling average is 426.6 COVID cases per 100K, statistically unchanged from yesterday.
For the first time in over a month, no counties reported a new case rate over 1,000 per 100K residents. Based on this change we are updating how we report county performance.
Counties in the 800.0 to 999.9 per 100K range include Ferry, Frankin, Grant, Grays Harbor, Lincoln, Okanogan, Pend Oreille, and Stevens. Ferry County is a new hot spot, while cases in southeast Washington are on the decline. Stevens County is just under 1,000.
Counties in the 600.0 to 799.9 per 100K range include Adams, Asotin, Columbia, Klickitat, Cowlitz, Benton, Walla Walla, Garfield, Douglas, Lewis, Chelan, and Spokane. Adams County is just under 800 and Yakima County is just under 600.0.
We will keep descending these brackets until most counties fall below 450 per 100K residents. Currently, 28 counties still have widespread transmission of COVID.
New cases were up for 12 to 19-year-olds while hospitalizations were down for the same age group.
Age Group
7-Day Case Rate
7-Day Hospitalization Rate
Ages 0-11
195.0
0.6
Ages 12-19
220.6 (up)
1.3 (down)
Ages 20-34
191.7
5.2
Ages 35-49
189.8
8.8
Ages 50-64
137.6
15.2
Ages 65-79
104.3
20.0
Ages 80+
108.3
32.6
7-day case rate and 7-day hospitalization rate is per 100K within the age group – the target for 7-day case rate is <25.0, but there are other factors such as vaccination rates within the age groups, how many total tests within the 7-day period, and the positivity rate within each age group
The USA Today COVID Tracker reported 72 deaths on Thursday. The state of Washington is not reporting the percentage of positive cases.
Nisqually Nation forced to evacuate COVID quarantine site after threats
Because three or four generations can be living under the same roof, a COVID-positive person can have a significant impact on the entire household. The Nisqually Nation started using a 26-acre property in Roy, Washington last year enabling tribal members to quarantine away from family members. The tribe was forced to evacuate the site after an online misinformation campaign labeled the location a concentration camp.
The Facebook group Americans Against 2nd Class Treatment posted on September 28, 2021, about the site, claiming it was a “new COVID quarantine site” and they were “just getting to work on it.” In reality, the site has existed for more than a decade, and the Nisqually Nation bought the 26-acre parcel in 2014. Earlier this month, they cleared some timber between the buildings and Highway 702, making the location more visible from the road.
Comments quickly developed with people calling it a “concentration camp” and a “gulag.” The group went on to post that the Nisqually Nation was forced to hire security and block the access road with boulders due to ongoing threats at the property.
“Who does that,” said Nisqually Tribal Councilmember Hanford McCloud, “It’s beyond ridiculous.”
McCloud said about 30 people have stayed on the property in the last 18 months, giving them a safe place to recover and prevent the spread of COVID-19.
A caretaker and his family, along with two COVID-19 patients, were placed in a hotel, said Tribal Health Officer Mary Szafranski.
Amazon continues to recommend dangerous COVID treatments on its website
A surge of social media videos in the last two weeks on YouTube and Tik Tok has advocated nebulizing hydrogen peroxide as a preventative and home treatment for COVID. Content creators have danced around guidance medical guidance to spread the misinformation.
For the third time in 60 days, Amazon is at the center of controversy with the AI designed to drive more sales, recommending medical saline and hydrogen peroxide with nebulizer purchases.
Amazon recommendation for hydrogen peroxide and medical saline when purchasing a nebulizer – October 1, 2021
In August the online behemoth was called out for promoting Ivermectin, and publishing reviews with veiled dosing instructions for humans. A couple of weeks later, Amazon was dinged again for recommending books that spread COVID misinformation.
Multiple medical groups have appealed for people not to drink or nebulize hydrogen peroxide. The human body does not have a finite capacity to process hydrogen peroxide and the solution hasn’t been recommended for wound care in years.
The Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America wrote, “A concerning and dangerous trend is circulating on social media channels like Facebook, Twitter, and TikTok. People are breathing in hydrogen peroxide through nebulizers to try to prevent or treat COVID-19.”
“DO NOT put hydrogen peroxide into your nebulizer and breathe it in. This is dangerous!”
Alaska Air Group mandates vaccination for all employees
Alaska Air Group joined Delta and Hawaiian Airlines, mandating all employees of Alaska Airlines, Horizon Air, and McGee get vaccinated against COVID. The airline stopped short of setting a hard deadline, but employees who prove they are fully vaccinated by December 1 will receive a $200 bonus. The mandate impacts certain vendors and contractors also.
“Since our company does significant work for the federal government, we have determined that Alaska Airlines, Horizon Air, and McGee employees – all part of Alaska Air Group – do fall under this federal vaccine mandate, along with other major U.S.airlines,” Alaska Air Group said in a statement.
The airline reported on September 1, that 75% of its workforce was already fully vaccinated.
United Airlines reported yesterday that 320 of 67,000 employees decided to quit over the vaccine mandate they implemented earlier this year. Nationally compliance for vaccine mandates has ranged from 89% to virtually 100% across cities, counties, states, schools, hospitals, and private employers.
More than half of rural Washington COVID transfer patients ended up in King County
A Seattle Times analysis found that from July 1 to September 23, 229 of 414 COVID transfer patients in Washington state ended up in King County hospitals. The Seattle Times story is behind a paywall and The Slog written by The Stranger is more politically charged on this topic for our COVID coverage specifically. You can see this summary by the author Joseph O’Sullivan on Twitter.
NEW: Slammed by #covid19, rural WA hospitals have transferred hundreds of patients to metro areas since July 1.
We recommend avoiding recreational travel to Spokane, Yakima, Klickitat, Benton, Franklin, and Walla Walla counties. If the number of new cases in the South Central Hospital Region continues to decline, we will likely lift our advisory for this region in the next 3 to 10 days. We strongly advise against all nonessential travel to Alaska, Idaho, and Montana. Hospital resources in these regions are constrained, and you may receive inadequate care if you experience a medical emergency.
We may implement a travel advisory for Eastern Washington, based upon renewed hospitalization data now available from the Department of Health.
Thank you
Thank you to our new subscribers and those of you who have made one-time contributions. On behalf of the entire team, thank you for helping us keep the lights on!
No promotional consideration has been given, or requested from the n95 project or any manufacturer of masks
Vaccination
Deadline for single dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine and second dose for Pfizer and Moderna vaccine looms for state workers
Thousands of state workers have until Sunday to receive their second Pfizer or Moderna dose or the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Over 68% of state workers reported last week they were fully vaccinated. Data from companies, schools, and other states such as Hawaii and New York, indicates final acceptance would likely exceed 95%.
Multiple unions have reached agreements at a municipal, county, or state level, to extend the deadline past October 18 for individuals who received at least their first dose. Additionally, workers with denied exemptions requests will be given extra time.
Pfizer vaccine booster shots are now available
Booster shots for eligible individuals are now available statewide. Individuals who received both doses of the Pfizer vaccine more than 6 months ago, are 65 or older, or are immunocompromised can receive their third dose immediately.
In the Kirland-Bellevue-Woodinville area, Walgreens, Rite-Aid, Bartell’s, and QFC are offering booster shots. Additionally, the third dose is available at the CVS located within the Target store at 17,700 NE 76th Street in Redmond.
Most locations require an appointment, which can be scheduled online.
King County, Washington is reporting over 86.2% of age eligible residents are vaccinated with at least one dose. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA has provided full approval of the Pfizer vaccine for anyone 16 and over and EUA approval for the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines.
COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.
According to the DoH COVID Dashboard, 18.7% of all acute care patients hospitalized in Washington have COVID. Currently, 91% of all staffed acute care beds are occupied statewide with approximately 604 available. ICUs are at 89.0% of capacity statewide, with 30.0% of ICU patients fighting COVID – an estimated 354 patients with 56% on ventilators. The state has approximately 132 ICU beds available.
The 7-day rolling average hospital admission rate for new COVID patients dropped to 105 – finally below the January 7, 2021 peak of 113. The Department of Health reported 1,274 COVID patients statewide on September 30 with 197 on ventilators. Hospitalizations dropped slightly while the number of patients on ventilators is unchanged.
Hospital Region
ICU Occupancy
ICU COVID Patients
Acute Care Occupancy
Acute Care COVID Patients
East
88.6%
44.6%
89.6%
26.7%
North
80.8%
28.5%
88.0%
13.1%
North Central
96.4%
58.9%
75.7%
26.3%
Northwest
92.3%
38.3%
95.4%
24.6%
Puget Sound
91.8%
23.4%
94.6%
14.4%
South Central
85.7%
34.9%
83.2%
25.4%
Southwest
74.3%
37.3%
88.3%
24.9%
West
89.1%
31.4%
87.6%
21.8%
Hospital status by region – September 30, 2021 – ICU Occupancy should be below 80%, ICU COVID Patients should be below 20%, Acute Care Occupancy should be below 80%, and Acute Care COVID Patients should be below 10%
There was very little change in the status of Hospital Regions.
– Alcott Elementary (1*) – Barton Elementary (1*) – Dickinson/Explorer Elementary (2*) – Ella Baker Elementary (3*) – Eastlake High (1*) – Evergreen Middle School (1*) – Franklin Elementary (2*) – Finn Hill Middle School (1* – see below) – ICS (1*) – Inglewood Middle School (2*) – Juanita Elementary (1*) – Kamiakin Middle School (3* – see notes below) – Keller Elementary (2*) – Kirkland Middle School (1*) – Lake Washington High (1*) – Lakeview Elementary (3*) – Muir Elementary (1*) – Redmond Middle School (1*) – Redmond High School (1*) – Renaissance Middle School (1*) – Rush Elementary (2*)
See notes below
None
Northshore
RED
– Arrowhead Elementary (14) – Canyon Creek Elementary (31**) – Canyon Park Middle School (12**) – Cottage Lake Elementary (17) – East Ridge Elementary (16) – Fernwood Elementary (13**) – Frank Love Elementary (30) – Hollywood Hills Elementary (29) – Inglemoor High School (8) – Innovation Lab High School (11) – Kenmore Elementary (13) – Kenmore Middle School (49**) – Kokanee Elementary (60) – Leota Middle School (6) – Lockwood Elementary (32) – Maywood Hills Elementary (21**) – Moorlands Elementary (48) – North Creek High School (27) – Northshore Middle School (17**) – Ruby Bridges Elementary (9) – Secondary Academy for Success (16) – Shelton View Elementary (20**) – Skyview Middle School (63**) – Sunrise Elementary (23) – Timbercrest Middle School (44) – Wellington Elementary (74) – Westhill Elementary (38) – Woodin Elementary (17**) – Woodinville High School (23) – Woodmoor Elementary (23**)
– Bothell High School (14*/137) – Crystal Springs Elementary 11*/45)
Local Districts Scorecard – * indicates positive cases only ** indicates 5 or more confirmed positive cases
We redefined the school district statuses. Information for classroom and building closures has been a challenge to obtain, both for closures and reopening. We are adopting moving any school with more than 10 active COVID cases reported into the red, and we’ve adjusted the third column to reflect this change.
in the Northshore School District, Bothell High School currently has 14 confirmed COVID cases between students and faculty and Crystal Springs Elementary has 11. The number of quarantined students at Bothell High school swelled to 137.
The Bellevue School District updated its COVID dashboard overnight. The district will be providing updated data daily, but no longer reports on the number of students and faculty quarantining.
We received a confirmed parent report on Wednesday of one new COVID case at Finn Hill Middle School with 52 students moved to quarantine.
We received a confirmed parent report on Thursday of two new COVID cases at Kamiakin Middle School with 27 additional close contacts.
We received a parent report on Thursday of one new COVID case at Old Redmond Schoolhouse (preschool) with an unknown number of close contacts.
Because Lake Washington doesn’t update its dashboard daily, we are adding these as footnotes. We have not added the Old Redmond Schoolhouse to the scorecard above because it is not officially listed on the Lake Washington School District dashboard.
Karen James, who taught 4th Grade at Barnes Elementary, died on Monday, September 27, according to the Kelso School District.
A district spokesperson said they could not comment on the cause of death, however, they later said, “Late yesterday [Thursday, Sept. 30] afternoon we learned of one additional positive COVID-19 case in Miss James’ classroom.”
We continued to encourage parents to request improved daily data reporting from the Lake Washington School District.
Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville
No update
National Round-Up
Johns Hopkins University Cumulative Case Tracker is reporting 110,010 new cases, 2,718 deaths nationwide, and 699,000 COVID-related deaths since February 29, 2020. Based on the Johns Hopkins University data, the United States will reach 700,000 confirmed COVID-related deaths tomorrow morning (other dashboards reported 700,000 deaths last night and earlier today).
Merck seeking FDA Emergency Use Authorization for pill that treats mild and moderate COVID
Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics have been studying an oral antiviral medicine called molnupiravir which, during Phase 3 testing, reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by 50%. Phase 3 testing has been so successful Merck is submitting an application for Emergency Use Authorization in the United States and plans to submit marketing applications to other regulatory agencies worldwide.
The test program was a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind, multi-site study done in 23 countries across 5 continents. There were 1,550 patients enrolled and to date, they have data from 775 people. Molnupiravir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by almost 50% compared to the placebo group. Through Day 29, no deaths were reported in patients who received molnupiravir, as compared to 8 deaths in patients who received a placebo.
“More tools and treatments are urgently needed to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, which has become a leading cause of death and continues to profoundly affect patients, families, and societies and strain health care systems all around the world. With these compelling results, we are optimistic that molnupiravir can become an important medicine as part of the global effort to fight the pandemic,” said Robert M. Davis, chief executive officer and president, Merck.
Unlike monoclonal antibodies which must be administered in a clinical setting by injection or IV, molnupiravir is a pill that can be prescribed by a doctor and taken at home.
“With the virus continuing to circulate widely, and because therapeutic options currently available are infused and/or require access to a healthcare facility, antiviral treatments that can be taken at home to keep people with COVID-19 out of the hospital are critically needed,” said Wendy Holman, chief executive officer of Ridgeback Biotherapeutics. “We are very encouraged by the results from the interim analysis and hope molnupiravir, if authorized for use, can make a profound impact in controlling the pandemic.”
An Axios report this evening states that in the fall of 2019, an Emory University professor presented the drug to the Trump Administration. The professor reported the school had developed a new powerful antiviral medication that could treat influenza, Ebola, and many other viruses. In February 2020, as COVID arrived in the United States, the professor came forward again, asking for funding for Phase 2 and Phase 3 testing to evaluate the effectiveness of the medication against COVID. The Trump administration declined to fund the research.
The drug could be a game-changer in the battle against COVID worldwide. Pills are easier to transport and store, don’t need preparation, and don’t need to be administered at a hospital or clinic. The medication is also being tested as an emergency preventative for individuals exposed to COVID but who have not tested COVID positive. The impact for the immunocompromised and elderly could be dramatic.
Approval by the FDA and ramping up distribution is likely months away. If molnupiravir can deliver these results globally, it has the potential to end the ongoing public health crisis. If Emory University has successfully created a broad-spectrum oral antiviral, this discovery has the potential to rival penicillin.
JetBlue requiring employees to get COVID vaccination
Kavanaugh, who is fully vaccinated, tested positive on Thursday night, the court said in a statement. The justice’s immediate family tested negative and he has no symptoms.
His positive diagnosis for coronavirus means he won’t be on the bench Monday, the start of the new term, and what would be the first in-person session with all nine justices.
Alaska
Alaska reported 1,044 new COVID cases today and a new case rate of 1,066 per 100,000 residents, indicating that the state may have hit a peak. The remote state continues to have the highest new case rate on the planet. Hospitals in Anchorage Bethel, and Valdez continue to operate under crisis standards of care protocols.
The 202 hospitalized COVID patients are essentially unchanged from yesterday. The number of available ICU beds jumped to 23 and the number of ICU patients dropped to 107. There are 83 ICU patients on ventilators, 35 with COVID.
Amanda Frey, a nurse at Fairbanks Memorial Hospital, sat down after a long day at work recently and made a brief video describing what it’s like to die with COVID-19: gasping for breath, terrified and beyond comfort.
“COVID-19 patients that die transition from being OK to actively dying very suddenly, and often without warning. They start to experience a state of panic and air hunger that is very difficult to manage and causes severe anxiety,” Frey says. “The medications that we usually use for patients at the end of life don’t help as much with COVID-19 patients when they’re dying. So what we’re seeing are deaths that are not only isolated but they’re also very traumatic.”
Newsom’s latest order, the first of its kind nationwide, will roll out in two phases for students learning in person. The mandate will first take effect for students ages 12 and over after the FDA grants full approval to that entire age group.
California is the first in the nation with a statewide vaccination mandate for primary school students. Implementation depends upon fully FDA approval of at least one of the COVID vaccines for children 12 to 15. Although no date has been set, full approval is expected during the first half of 2022.
Earlier this week, we blasted Jordan Herget, the CEO of Portneuf Medical Center, for reporting that the hospital in Pocatello was operating normally and they didn’t expect to have to move to crisis standards of care. From ambulance bays to emergency departments, any medical professional can tell you the worst thing you can say aloud is, “gee, it sure is quiet tonight.”
“Our situation hasn’t improved. A week later we’re very much in an emergency just like we were a week ago and our staff are being pushed to our limits,” Hergett said.
“In our adult ICUs, our youngest patient today is 22 years old,” St. Luke’s Chief Medical Officer Dr. Jim Souza said. “About 70% of our patients are 55 years or younger in the intensive care unit. And in the intensive care unit, 25% are younger than 40. They’re sicker. They’re staying longer. The average length of stay in the ICU is up by two whole days, and their mortality rate is significantly higher than it was in the December surge.”
The VA Hospital in Boise requested a mobile morgue to support the hospital facility which is at capacity. Idaho has struggled with the influx of corpses in the last two weeks. Officials have been forced to stack bodies, store them in railroad cars, and store embalmed bodies in non-refrigerated areas.
Typically, ivermectin is rarely used on humans, Edge said, and he filled only three legitimate prescriptions for the drug in the past year. The most recent prescriptions he’s received came from out-of-state doctors, he said, “which is always a little bit of a red flag anyway.”
When he looked up one prescriber online, Edge found a list of doctors that people can call and, for a fee, get a consultation over the phone and then a prescription for ivermectin.
Asked later if she felt that speaking at an event where the tone seemed overwhelmingly against school boards that have voted to install mask mandates, Arntzen said, “I don’t believe this disrespects anyone in the educational community.”
“My role is here,” she continued. “My role is, number one, in the healing process in the discord we have between the school board room, where they might be in Montana, and to parents, whoever they might be, and putting the emphasis on children.”
Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor denied the emergency request without comment. A federal appeals court earlier in the week permitted New York’s mandate.
The Supreme Court ruled in 1905 in Jacobson vs Massachusetts, that municipalities, counties, and states had the power to mandate vaccines as part of public health efforts. The decision has been litigated dozens of times over the last 116 years, as recently as August.
When an emergency filing is made with the court, the Justice that is assigned to that region can render a decision or request that the entire court to hear the case. In August, Associate Justice May Comey-Barrett ruled independently on a challenge filed by students at the University of Indiana. Justice Comey-Barrett also denied the appeal without comment.
In the landmark 1905 case, the Supreme Court ruled that the 10th Amendment gave states the power to make public health decisions.
It’s just a cold. It’s just the flu.Content warning, some viewers may find this disturbing.
Tik Tok user Mae Mae documented her hospital journey in August and September after she caught COVID. She was partially vaccinated when she became ill and ended up hospitalized. In her videos, her condition continued to deteriorate, and the cannula she is wearing indicates she was on high flow oxygen.
You read stories from respiratory therapists, nurses, and doctors of COVID patients who become exhausted as they struggle to breathe – but we don’t see it. Mae Mae went to the line of needing to go on a ventilator before she bounced back.
This is COVID – this is what it looks like. It is not a cold, it is not the flu. Mae Mae survived and is still dealing with lingering symptoms.
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