Tag Archives: seattle

Local, National

Seattle Police Officer Daniel Auderer could be fired for unprofessional conduct

[WBHG News 24 – Seattle] – After a January 23 report from the Seattle Office of Police Accountability concluded Officer Daniel Auderer violated SPD’s professionalism and bias-based policing policies while discussing the death of Jaahnavi Kandula, including saying she had “limited value,” SPD leadership has recommended harsh discipline, up to termination.

On the night of January 23, 2023, Officer Kevin Dave was responding to a drug overdose call when he struck 23-year-old college student Jaahnavi Kandula in a marked crosswalk while driving 63 MPH, mortally wounding her. Dave stopped briefly, radioed he hit a pedestrian, and then continued to the cocaine overdose call.

Auderer, a drug recognition officer and vice-president of the Seattle Police Officers Guild, was deployed to evaluate Dave for potential impairment. After conducting his investigation, a two-minute phone conversation with SPOG President Mike Solan was accidentally recorded on Auderer’s bodycam. A whistleblower within SPD found the video and reported it to his chain of command. The video was released to the public on September 11, 2023, sparking international outrage.

The recording only captured Auderer’s side of the conversation. After telling Solan, “She is dead,” he guffawed, then continued to mock Kandula, saying, “She had limited value,” and the city should “Just write a check – $11,000.”

One year to the day after the accident, OPA recommended sustaining the findings that Auderer “violated SPD’s professionalism and bias-based policing policies by laughing about Kandula’s death, describing her as having “limited value,” and making other disparaging remarks.”

OPA Director Gino Betts Jr. called the officer’s words “derogatory, disturbing, and inhumane.”

According to the Seattle Times, a Seattle Police Department Disciplinary Action Report has recommended punishment ranging from a 30-day suspension without pay up to termination. In a commanders’ disciplinary memo sent to Auderer, SPD leadership wrote, “Even crediting your explanation as true, that does not excuse the callousness of your comments.”

Seattle Police Chief Adrian Diaz will meet with Auderer on March 4, where he will be given a final opportunity to explain his conduct.

Kandula was a graduate student from India studying for her master’s degree at Northeastern University’s Seattle campus. Two days after the video release, the Indian Consulate in San Francisco called the video “troubling,” writing on Twitter (also known as X), “Recent reports including in media of the handling of Ms Jaahnavi Kandula’s death in a road accident in Seattle in January are deeply troubling. We have taken up the matter strongly with local authorities in Seattle & Washington State as well as senior officials in Washington DC.”

The U.S. State Department also issued a statement, calling the incident “disturbing.”

At the time of the accident, Dave was driving through a construction zone at 74 MPH with no siren. Kandula attempted to run but had less than one second to react, and an investigation found that Dave had slowed to 63 MPH at the moment of impact. A report released in June 2023 concluded, “Had Ofc. Dave been travelling [sic] 50 MPH or less as he approached the intersection and encountered [sic] and Ofc. DAVE and responded in the same manner; this collision would not have occurred.”

In August, when Auderer learned about the bodycam video, he asked OPA Director Betts Jr. for rapid adjudication. The optional disciplinary review enables a police officer to admit to minor to moderate policy violations and accept “reasonable discipline” without appeal, bypassing a formal OPA investigation. Betts Jr. denied the request, which SPOG decried.

With public outrage growing and a September 21 appeal by Seattle’s Community Police Commission to suspend Auderer indefinitely without pay, SPD administratively re-assigned him to desk duty.

Other statements made by Auderer have raised additional questions about the integrity of SPD’s accident investigation. In the same phone conversation with Solan, he said that Dave was driving no more than 50 MPH, and Kandula was thrown less than 50 feet. A secondary investigation found she was thrown 138 feet. The King County Prosecuting Attorney is considering criminal charges for Dave and has hired an outside consultant to conduct an independent investigation. An announcement is expected in the coming weeks.

Auderer is a 14-year veteran with SPD and no stranger to professional conduct investigations. Since May 2014, he’s been investigated 30 times by the OPA, referred to supervisory reprimand or guidance 11 times, and had allegations of unprofessional conduct sustained three times. His prior actions have cost the City almost $2 million in settlement payments.

SPOG has maintained its defense of its vice president, repeatedly stating that Auderer and Solan were engaged in “gallows humor” and declared, “The video captures only one side of the conversation. There is much more detail and nuance that has not been made public yet… SPOG has full confidence that the civilian led [sic] police accountability system known as the Office of Police Accountability / OPA will conduct a thorough and fair investigation.”

During the civilian-led investigation, Solan was called as the only witness. He has since accused the OPA of “union discrimination,” “intimidation,” and conducting a “fishing expedition” after being asked to meet with investigators for a second time to clarify his earlier testimony.

In his first statement to OPA on September 12, Solan told investigators, “It’s how police are,” adding, “Sometimes officers use sarcasm and humor to overcome emotional hurdles, which can be very burdensome.”

Solan claimed that he only agreed to meet with the OPA a second time after being warned he could face dismissal.

Kandula’s family, who lives in India, has not filed a lawsuit against the city. Northeastern University announced they would issue an honorary master’s degree later this week.

Health and Lifestyle, Local, National

Polio detected in New York, London, and Jerusalem wastewater – King Co not Testing

[SEATTLE, Wash.] -MTN The poliomyelitis virus has been detected in the wastewater of the international travel hubs of New York, London, and Jerusalem, indicating that the disease is spreading through the community. King County tests wastewater for several diseases but polio, long eradicated in Washington state, isn’t one of them.

“At this time, we are not testing King County wastewater for poliovirus,” Kate Cole, communications representative for Public Health of Seattle and King County, said.

Polio once struck fear into the hearts of parents until the 1950s, when the first polio vaccine brought the disease, which has no cure, into check. Thanks to widespread vaccination campaigns, the disease, which can cause paralysis and death, was declared vanquished from the United States. By 2016, the complete eradication of polio appeared to be within grasp, with cases numbering in the hundreds appearing in two nations – Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The virus spreading in New York and London is a revertant Sabin type 2 virus, which originates from the Sabin orally administrated polio vaccine. The oral polio vaccine was discontinued in the United States in 2000 but is still used in other nations, mainly to contain polio outbreaks. When a person is vaccinated with the oral vaccine, which uses a weakened version of poliomyelitis, they can shed the virus in their feces for up to a month. If an unvaccinated person comes in contact with a contaminated surface, they can become infected. Eventually, if the weakened virus sickens enough people, it can revert to a more virulent version.

On July 21, the New York State Department of Health reported the first case of community transmission of polio in the United States since 1981. The infected Rockland County resident suffered from paralytic polio, which state officials identified as a “revertant polio Sabin type 2 virus.” In a fully vaccinated population with strong herd immunity, the story would have stopped there. But due to declining vaccination rates, it didn’t. In the following weeks, polio was detected in the wastewater of three New York regions, including New York City.

While polio appearing in the wastewater of two of the largest cities in the world and three travel hubs is alarming, most of the infected have no idea they are a carrier. Up to 75% of people who get infected are asymptomatic – they never experience a single symptom. While many will never know they had polio, they are contagious and quietly spread the disease for up to a month.

For those who get sick, symptomatic polio resembles the flu or a mild case of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. Fatigue, body and joint aches, weakness, stomach distress, and fever. That makes it even harder to spot because many physicians haven’t seen a case of polio in their lives, and mild symptoms mirror more common diseases that are active in the community.

In less than 2% of cases, polio crosses from the digestive tract to the nervous system. One out of two hundred who catch polio will develop paralytic polio, which can be fatal. The chances of experiencing paralysis increase the older a person is. Polio thrives in areas with warm water and populations with poor hygiene, especially children.

According to the National Library of Medicine, in 1981, over 90% of Americans were vaccinated for polio, creating so-called herd immunity. Vaccination rates peaked in 2008. The journal Nature published a study in 2019, reporting the rate had dropped to 80%. Preliminary data indicates that vaccine disinformation has dropped the rate even lower. In some conservative and religious counties, the rate is below 70%.

Travelers who took the oral vaccine, or in rarer cases, are infected with a vaccine acquired case of polio unwittingly spread the disease to the unvaccinated. In closed communities, the disease can spread quickly and silently.

Some epidemiologists believe because polio is spreading in New York City, it has likely spread to other major travel hubs in the United States. Americans have taken to the skies in near-record numbers after two years of COVID-related travel declines. Orlando. Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Chicago, Minneapolis, Denver, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle could have cases silently spreading without carriers even knowing.

BIPOC, Breaking News, Local, National

Lynnwood man indicted for hate crime and interstate threats

[SEATTLE, Wash.] – A 37-year-old Lynnwood, Washington man was indicted Wednesday by a federal grand jury for a hate crime and four counts of interstate threats, announced U.S. Attorney Nick Brown. Joey David George will be arraigned on the indictment on August 11, 2022, in Seattle Federal Court. George remains detained at the Federal Detention Center at SeaTac, Washington.

“By law, the decision to charge a hate crime is appropriately deliberate – with consultation and approval from DOJ’s Civil Rights Division in Washington DC,” said U.S. Attorney Nick Brown. “In this case, the hate-filled threats to kill, based on race, are fittingly being prosecuted as a hate crime.”

The probable cause court filing on July 21 outlined the alleged incidents. According to records filed in the case, on July 19 and 20, George allegedly telephoned a grocery store in Buffalo, New York, and threatened to shoot Black people in the store.

“On July 19, 2022, an individual called a Tops grocery store in Buffalo, New York. The caller, who identified himself as “Peter,” spoke with an employee at the store. The caller asked how many Black people were in the store. He said he would make the news if he shot and killed all of the Black people, including all of the women, children, and babies. He asked if the employee had cleared out the building. He said there was a chance he was already in the store or somewhere nearby. He said that if he did not see anyone at the store, he would travel to the Jefferson Tops store,” the court filing said.

The Tops Friendly Market store in Buffalo had reopened on July 14, two months after a racially motivated mass shooting left ten dead and three injured. In the second call, George allegedly ranted about a “race war.”  Law enforcement traced the phone number and identified George as the person who made the call. The second Tops location in Buffalo on Jefferson Avenue, had a grand reopening on July 16 after an extensive renovation.

In addition to the calls to Buffalo, George is charged in connection with a May 2022 call to a Shari’s Restaurant and Pies in San Bruno, California. In that call, George, using the pseudonym “Tony Sumorrah,” talked to a San Bruno, California police officer. George told the officer that he called Shari’s restaurant because “he wanted to attack Black people and strike fear into the Bay Area’s Black community. He stated Black people are not human but rather “sub-humans.” He said he was proud of his actions because he instilled fear in the employees and customers of the restaurant.”

The San Bruno police department obtained location data for the origination point of the call. The call was made from Lynnwood, Washington, using a T-Mobile-provided cellphone number with Joey George as the subscriber. T-Mobile confirmed the May 12 call to Shari’s came for George’s number and phone. In the eyes of the law, a restaurant is a place of public accommodation, which added the hate crime charge: Interference with a Federally Protected Activity.

Additionally, George is charged with making interstate threats to a business in Maryland, saying he intended to shoot Black people at the store.  The fourth count of the indictment charges him with making interstate threats to bomb a restaurant in Connecticut. 

On January 16, 2022, George threatened marijuana dispensaries in Seattle and Skyway. An employee answered the call, and the male caller asked if there were any Black employees at the business. The male caller stated that he carried a gun and would go to the business to shoot any Black people who were there at the time of his arrival. According to the dispensary, a similar threat was made to their Skyway location. T-Mobile records show the call to the Seattle business came from George’s cellphone. George is not facing charges for the January 2022 incident, and it is unclear if the Seattle Police Department was contacted about the threat and if they were if they initiated a case and performed an investigation.

George is facing up to 30 years in prison based on the five charges.

Breaking News, Local, National

WSF Cathlamet has ‘significant damage’ after hard landing at Fauntleroy ferry terminal

[WASHINGTON] – (MTN) The Washington State Ferry boat Cathlamet had a hard landing at the Fauntleroy ferry terminal in West Seattle, causing significant damage to the vessel and ferry terminal infrastructure.

The 7:55 a.m. sailing of the Cathlamet left Vashon Island and, on its approach to Fauntleroy around 8:15 a.m., it struck a group of pilings meant to protect the ferry dock and help stabilize the ferry while loading and unloading. The structure is called a dolphin. Photos from the terminal showed moderate damage to the structure, with at least two metal pilings buckled and the top structure badly damaged.

The impact caused significant damage to the superstructure, tearing the metal open like a can opener between the first and second car decks. One of the pickle forks, a favorite viewing point for ferry riders, was destroyed. Washington State Ferries reported that several cars were damaged due to the incident. There were no reports that the Cathlamet was in danger of sinking, and there were no reports of fuel leaks or other environmental impacts.

The Fauntleroy ferry terminal is closed until further notice while the United States Coast Guard conducts an investigation. Seattle police have blocked road access to the ferry terminal and are turning away traffic.

After the investigation into the incident is completed, the ship and ferry terminal infrastructure will be inspected. It is unclear when the ferry terminal will reopen. It is unlikely the Cathlamet can be quickly returned to service.

July 28, 2022 – Social media photo – photo credit – Timothy Couch

The WSF reported they were working with the Port of Seattle, King County Metro, and Kitsap Transit to find a solution to get commuters home this evening. Alternative service from the Seattle area to Vashon Island has not been established yet. The Chetzemoka will operate from Point Defiance in Tacoma at 12:35 p.m. daily in response to the incident. Normally, the route only operates Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

There were no reports of injuries.

BIPOC, Breaking News, Five Facts, Local

Family of 16-year-old shooting victim ready to sue City of Seattle

Five Fast Facts

  • Antonio Mays Jr. was shot and killed in the early morning hours of June 29, 2020
  • Mays Jr. had traveled to Seattle to be part of the new civil rights movement
  • The shooting occurred near the Capitol Hill Organized Protest (CHOP) zone
  • The family claims the City of Seattle abandoned CHOP, failing to provide basic services, and that the lack of oversight ultimately led to the death
  • First responders cannot enter the scene of a violent crime without it first being secured by SPD, who claimed they were unable to do so due to the protests; Mays Jr. was transported to Harborview Medical Center by private vehicle from the scene

SEATTLE, Wash. – It’s been more than two years since Antonio Mays Jr. was shot and killed in Seattle. 

His father, who lives in southern California, says he waited to get answers for months. Now he’s fed up with a lack of information and accountability for his son’s death. Which led to a tort claim – essentially an early warning of a pending lawsuit – being filed against the City of Seattle…

You can read more at Q13Fox

BIPOC, Breaking News, Local, National

Man Who Allegedly Threatened U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal Released without Charges

[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) Brett Allen Forsell, 48, was released from King County Jail late on Wednesday without being criminally charged or having to post bond after the Seattle Police Department failed to file their findings of fact with King County Prosecutors for any alleged crime within the Constitutionally required 72 hours.

King County Prosecutors were expecting to receive the required paperwork from the SPD, but the paperwork was never submitted.

Within the Bill of Rights, the Fifth Amendment states, “No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a grand jury.” Two Supreme Court of the United States rulings, McNabb v. United States (1943) and Mallory v. United States (1957), created what many call the “72 hours rule.”

Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure Rule 5(a) states that defendants must be brought before the court “without delay,” which is defined as 48 to 72 hours. No time on Saturday, Sunday, or holidays counts toward the requirement to file charing papers with the court, and exceptions can be made if a judge isn’t available. In Washington, Rule 3.2.1 states, “Unless an information or indictment is filed or the affected person consents in writing or on the record in open court, an accused shall not be detained in jail or subjected to conditions of release for more than 72 hours.”

Forsell denies he threatened Jayapal, brandished a weapon, or made racist comments. SPD claims that a follow-up investigation supports the man’s version of events, but the investigation continues. Seattle Police did not respond at press time on why there was a discrepancy in the arresting officer’s report and the follow-up investigation.

The Seattle Police Department requested an extreme risk protection order be filed against Forsell, which will require him to give up all firearms prior to a review, typically 14 days after the court authorizes the protection order. Forsell’s weapons will be returned if the court determines that he isn’t an extreme risk. If Forsell does not show up for the hearing or the court determines he is an extreme risk, the order is automatically extended to one year.

Forsell admitted to police that he had been driving past Jayapal’s house multiple times over the week before his arrest, yelling obscenities and taunts.

King County Prosecutor’s Office spokesperson Casey McNerthey released a statement.

“The recent incident outside Rep. Pramila Jayapal’s Seattle home is disturbing and unacceptable. In a time of increased political violence, security concerns against any elected official should be taken seriously.”

“The suspect’s alleged language and actions, coupled with his possession of a concealed weapon, deserve the full attention of the justice system. Presently, the investigation is ongoing, and our office is working with police investigators to make sure we understand the full extent of the suspect’s actions to build the strongest case possible.”

On July 9, Seattle police reported they were called to Jayapal’s home after multiple reports of a person driving by her home and yelling obscene and racist statements. A neighbor also called 911 reporting that someone may have fired a “pellet gun,” displaying a weapon.

Forsell was arrested in the middle of the street, possessing a handgun within his waistband. A witness told investigators they heard Forsell yelling, “Go back to India,” and “I’m going to kill you,” driving by the congressperson’s house three times.

Jayapal is the first Indian-American woman elected to the House of Representatives and heads the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

BIPOC, Breaking News, Local, National

Seattle Man Arrested for Racist Death Threats Against Rep. Pramila Jayapal

[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) Brett Allen Forsell, 48, is being held in King County Jail until he can make $500,000 bail, for brandishing a handgun and making racist death threats outside the home of United States Congressperson Pramila Jayapal (WA-D).

Rep. Jayapal’s office released a statement about the incident on her website.

“Congresswoman Jayapal confirms that incidents occurred at her Seattle home on Saturday night when she was present. The Congresswoman and her family are safe and appreciate the many calls and good wishes she is receiving from constituents. She is very grateful for the swift and professional response from the Seattle Police Department, the US Capitol Police, and the FBI investigators who are working together diligently on the investigation, and ensuring that she and her family stay safe. Because this is an ongoing investigation, she will not be commenting further at this time.”

Seattle police reported they were called to Jayapal’s home on Saturday reporting a person was driving by the home, and yelling obscene and racist statements. A neighbor also called 911 reporting that someone may have fired a “pellet gun,” displaying a weapon.

Forsell was arrested in the middle of the street, possessing a handgun with it in his waistband. A witness told investigators they heard Forsell yelling, “Go back to India,” and “I’m going to kill you,” driving by the congressperson’s house three times.

Prosecutors asked for an emergency restraining order, but the motion was denied. The judge overseeing the initial hearing said there was “probable cause” for additional hate crime charges.

Jayapal is the first Indian-American woman elected to the House of Representatives and heads the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

The FBI and the United States Secret Service are also investigating. Formal charges are expected to be filed on Wednesday.

BIPOC, Breaking News, Local

Wired 55-Gallon Barrel with ‘Thin Blue Line’ Flag Causes Bomb Scare in Seattle

[SEATTLE, Wash.] – MTN At approximately 12:45 PM, the Seattle Police Department’s bomb squad was called to the 6500 block of Martin Luther King Blvd. in Seattle to investigate a 55-gallon drum with a “thin blue line” flag that had multiple wires connected to it placed on the sidewalk. The bomb squad determined the device was not a threat.

Residents started to inquire about the display in the morning on social media, eventually leading to a police response. When officers arrived and saw the barrel had wires connected to it, they closed Martin Luther King Blvd. and deployed the bomb squad.

Sound Transit suspended train service between the Columbia City Station and Othello Station due to the police investigation. Link Shuttle busses were used between the stations and diverted around the area of police activity.

The Seattle Police Department is still investigating.

BIPOC, Local

Off-duty Seattle Police SWAT Officers’ Conduct During Charleena Lyles Inquest Raises Questions

[SEATTLE, Wash] – MTN Off-duty Seattle Police Department SWAT officers went to the Children’s and Family Justice Center in Seattle, where an inquest into the 2017 shooting death of Charleena Lyles is being held, for a “security check” after one of the officers told his sergeant he was “afraid” after a confrontation with Lyles’s family on June 22.

On Wednesday, after an emotional day of testimony that included graphic pictures and videos of Lyles after Seattle Police shot her, the officers walked through a hallway where Lyles’s family was seated. There was a verbal confrontation, and one of the officers was called a “coward.” The officer called his sergeant, saying he was afraid for his safety after the incident. On Friday, off-duty SWAT officers went to the courthouse where the inquest was being held unannounced. Seattle police do not have jurisdiction over the Children’s and Family Justice Center, which the King County Sheriff’s Department handles.

King County Sheriff Sgt. Jim Donner, responsible for the courthouse’s security, told the Seattle Times the security check was “surprising.” Surveillance cameras recorded the Wednesday incident. It did not show that any threats were issued to the officer or other actions that would have reasonably put him in fear.

After reviewing the surveillance video on Monday, Inquest Administrator Michael Spearman called the response “excessive” and chastised the Seattle Police Department. Spearmen told the department to “avoid” the Lyles family.

During an interview on KIRO 97.3, The Lyles family accused the Seattle police of using intimidation tactics by sending members of the SWAT team to the courthouse.

On June 18, 2017, Lyles, who was expecting her fifth child, called 911 to report a burglary at her apartment. Lyles was known by the Seatle Police Department and known to have mental health issues. She was in a mental health crisis when police arrived, and the two officers accused Lyles of lunging at them with a knife. They fired seven shots, with several striking Lyles.

In the line of fire were at least two of Lyles’s children, two toddlers. An infant was in a crib in a bedroom down the hallway. One of the children ran out to the body of their mother seconds after she was shot and laid her head on her body. In audio recordings, the two officers expressed shock there were others in the apartment, and that the children could have been in the line of fire.

The conduct of the Seattle Police and their description of events was called into question, but Washington state law at the time required proof that a law enforcement officer acted with “malice” or “evil intent” to bring charges for alleged excessive use of force incidents. Legal experts have called it an impossible standard for decades. Before a change in Washington law in 2019, the state was considered one of the most difficult places to charge law enforcement officers for criminal misconduct in the line of duty.

In 2019 the law in Washington state changed, removing the malice and evil intent standard, making it possible to prosecute officers for use of force misconduct. Four officers, one in Auburn and three in Tacoma, are awaiting trials on various charges. In the Auburn case, police officer Jeff Nelson is awaiting trial for second-degree murder and first-degree assault in the shooting death of Jesse Sarey, who was also having a mental health crisis. Tacoma Police officers Christopher Burbank and Matthew Collins face second-degree murder charges, and officer Timothy Rankine faces first-degree manslaughter charges for the 2020 in-custody death of Manny “Manuel” Ellis.

The Lyles sued the city of Seatle for wrongful death in 2020, and a civil trial was scheduled for February 2022. In November 2021, the city of Seattle reached a $3.5 million settlement with the family.

Legal experts say that the two Seattle Police officers that shot Lyles could face criminal charges, depending on the finding of facts from the ongoing inquest. However, because Lyles was shot and killed in 2017, charges would have to be weighed against the old standard of malice or evil intent.

Breaking News, Health and Lifestyle, Local

Washington hospitals will face an unprecedented capacity crisis in January

1 Comment

[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) The promises of the COVID Omicron variant being “very mild” and only a cold are crumbling in London and New York. The crush of COVID-related hospitalizations has United Kingdom officials considering additional restrictions while New York officials issued a warning about a shocking rise in pediatric hospitalizations. Hospitals in Washington are more than 90 percent occupied, leaving almost no capacity to deal with any kind of surge, COVID or otherwise.

Reports, studies, and data are pouring in at an incredible rate from around the world with confusing and conflicting headlines. In the United States, the politicization of the COVID epidemic has created a news cycle more aligned to opinion and speculation, than a cautious review and analysis of available data. If Washington follows the United Kingdom and New York, hospitals across the state will be overwhelmed by the end of January.

When Omicron was first announced by the World Health Organization on Nov. 26, many latched on to the words of Dr. Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association when she described the variant as “very mild.”

“Most of them are seeing very, very mild symptoms and none of them so far have admitted patients to surgeries. We have been able to treat these patients conservatively at home,” she said.

Within hours more details emerged that had many advising caution. Dr. Coetzee isn’t a hospitalist and runs a private practice in the South Africa capital of Pretoria. She based her statements on seeing 24 patients, mostly college students, and 50 percent were vaccinated.

The World Health Organization (WHO) addressed her statement in a press release on Nov. 28.

“There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants. Initial reported infections were among university students—younger individuals who tend to have more mild disease—but understanding the level of severity of the Omicron variant will take days to several weeks.”

A month has passed since the WHO announced Omicron was a Variant of Concern (VOC). Data from South Africa, the UK, and New York is providing critical information on what will happen next for other nations including the United States.

Malcontent News has analyzed multiple studies, COVID case rates, hospitalization information, and mortality data from South Africa, the United Kingdom, and New York City. Our conclusion is that without drastic action in the next seven to ten days, Washington hospitals will face an untenable crisis by the end of January.

Researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) estimated Omicron was doubling every 2.4 days in the UK and has an Rt or “R naught” of 4.4. Rt is a measure of how quickly a disease can spread. At 3.0, up to 50 percent of people can expect to become infected with the Omicron variant – at 4.0, the figure jumps to 90 percent.

On Dec. 23, Trevor Bedford, Ph.D. with Fred Hutch, estimated that Omicron was doubling every 2.4 days and had an Rt of 4.4 in King County.

Case information from South Africa’s hospitals has revealed that recent previous COVID Delta variant infections are not providing much protection from the Omicron variant. As hospitals in Gauteng Province became filled with COVID patients, reaching a peak days before Christmas, a pattern emerged. Over 80 percent were unvaccinated, and in the ICU, almost all the patients were unvaccinated.

Mortality rates in South Africa remained low through Dec. 10 and then started to climb. On Sunday, 66 were dying of COVID daily based on the 7 day moving average, 87 percent are unvaccinated and 466 total deaths have been recorded in the last week.

While it is factually correct that only 26 percent of all South Africans are vaccinated against COVID, in Gauteng the numbers more closely mirror some Eastern Washington counties. On Dec. 17 South African officials reported 44% of all eligible adults in Gauteng are fully vaccinated, including 66% of people over 50 years old. Even at 26 percent, Stevens County is only 33 percent vaccinated and already experiencing high transmission.

South African officials found that although the risk of hospitalization from Omicron was as much as 70% lower than Delta, once a person was hospitalized, the disease progression resembled Delta with similar patient outcomes. Scientists in Europe and North America worried that the younger, relatively healthy population was masking the true impact of Omicron. Hospitals also saw a surge of children under five being hospitalized.

Washington and King County have far fewer children under 18 and a much older population than South Africa. The single biggest factor that determines the outcome of a COVID infection is age, even among the vaccinated. Multiple studies have concluded that without a booster shot, neutralizing antibodies against COVID has faded away, leaving the T cells to respond in a secondary response. Boosters dramatically improve the body’s response to Omicron, but less than half of eligible residents of King County have been boosted.

In a damaging blow to reaching a better understanding of the Omicron variant, the South Africa Department of Health announced on Dec. 24 the nation would stop most contact tracing, reduce quarantine times for infected people, and significantly reduce COVID testing. Reducing the number of tests will lower the daily case count while inflating the percentage of hospitalization patients. Shortening of quarantine periods for positive tests while ending most contact tracing could drive a new surge of community transmission.

As Omicron started to spread around the world, the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK reported 131 Omicron variant cases on Dec. 8. The first Omicron variant death was reported on Dec. 14 and by Christmas Eve, the NHS reported 122,186 cases as hospitalizations started to surge.

Bedford predicted on Dec. 18 that King County would have 2,100 new COVID cases by Dec. 23, which would shatter previous records. King County Public Health reported 2,879 new cases, a 169 percent increase in a week. Hospitalizations are a trailing indicator and looking at London and the UK, an increase in King County is roughly a week away.

Today, UK COVID hospitalizations are doubling every ten days. For the unvaccinated, people from 50 to 79 have a 30-fold greater chance of being hospitalized. The Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre examined hospitalization data from May to November and found that the unvaccinated had a relative risk to be hospitalized 60-times higher than the vaccinated – that data was without boosters.

According to the most recent data available, the UK National Health Service reported 1,171 people were admitted to hospitals with COVID on Dec. 20 – the highest number since Feb. 19 and higher than during the Delta wave. On Dec. 22, the 7-day moving average for new hospitalizations in London had reached 386, just a handful of cases below a “trigger number” of 400. The figure is half of the previous record peak of 850. If cases double again in the next ten days, a new and awful record would be in reach.

The LSHTM released an updated pre-print study on Dec. 23 modeling four potential scenarios for the UK and the progression of Omicron. The report was adjusted to factor in newly available data from the Imperial College of London published on Dec. 22. Report 50 hypothesized previous Delta infections combined with high vaccination rates in the UK would reduce the risk of hospitalization from an Omicron infection by 50 percent.

“These results suggest that the introduction of the Omicron B.1.1.529 variant in England will lead to a substantial increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which, in the absence of strict control measures, has the potential for substantially higher case rates than those recorded during the Alpha B.1.1.7 winter wave in 2020–2021. This is due to Omicron’s apparent high transmissibility and ability to infect individuals with existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2 from prior infection or from vaccination.”

Only one scenario found that hospitalizations would be below the record the UK set in January 2020. The most likely scenario of high immune escape with high booster dose efficacy predicts hospitalizations could soar to 5,000 a day by the end of January 2021. The National Health Service would have no capability to care for that many patients, even if they only required a few days of care with hydration and oxygen support.

The study also found that this was not inevitable, and additional mitigation plans to slow the spread of COVID could protect the hospital system and UK residents alike. However, the steps required are very unlikely to be taken or tolerated.

“The introduction of control measures is projected to partially suppress Omicron transmission; however, in the most pessimistic scenario, we project that stringent control measures such as those implemented following the Alpha B.1.1.7 winter wave of transmission may be required to ensure that healthcare services are not overwhelmed.”

In the United States, federal officials have openly stated concern that restrictions such as those used in the spring of 2020 could bring a wave of domestic terrorism. On Nov. 11, the National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin stated, “Pandemic-related stressors have contributed to increased societal strains and tensions, driving several plots by DVEs, and they may contribute to more violence this and next year. If a new COVID-19 variant emerges and new public health restrictions are imposed as a result, anti-government violent extremists could potentially use the new restrictions as a rationale to target government or public health officials or facilities.”

In King County, there are very few remaining public health options. The county has had a mask mandate in place since July with varying levels of compliance. Proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test is required to go to restaurants, bars, theaters, sports events, movies, gyms, and entertainment venues. However, one doesn’t have to dig deep to find Facebook groups and online lists of hundreds of businesses ignoring these requirements.

On the other side of the country, New York City is seven to ten days ahead of Seattle. Tens of thousands of, “guess who has COVID,” social media posts morphed into, “this is much worse than I thought” updates over the Christmas holiday. The number of hospitalized COVID patients almost doubled in a week in the City – from 1,046 on Dec. 18 to 1,904 on Dec. 24. The number of coronavirus patients in the ICU went from 187 to 283 during the same period. On Christmas Eve, parts of Manhattan had the highest COVID transmission rates on the planet.

New York Health Commissioner Mary T. Bassett issued a statement on Christmas Day, with pediatric COVID hospitalizations quadrupling in three weeks. “We are alerting New Yorkers to this recent striking increase in pediatric COVID-19 admissions so that pediatricians, parents, and guardians can take urgent action to protect our youngest New Yorkers.”

Officials did not release a patient census but did offer some information. Half of the hospitalized children were under five. None of the children under 12 were vaccinated, and only one-third of adolescent patients from 12 to 17 were fully vaccinated. Booster shots are not available to children under 16, and only recently became available to 16 and 17-year-olds.

The Washington Post reported that pediatric hospitalizations for COVID had jumped 31 percent in ten days, with almost 2,000 children hospitalized – a grim and new national record.

Pediatrician Aaron Milstone with Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine urged parents who have children with “cold” symptoms to assume “it’s Omicron until proven otherwise,” in an interview with the Washington Post.

Unlike South Africa and the United Kingdom which released updated reports over the Christmas holiday, data hasn’t been available from the Washington State Depart of Health (WSDoH) since Thursday. With new cases doubling every 2.4 days in King County, it is almost certain Washingtonians will see a dramatic increase in new COVID cases and COVID hospitalization in the coming week.

When it comes to the state’s ability to cope with another surge, Washington State Hospital Association (WSHA) Vice President Taya Briley minced no words during a Dec. 23 press briefing.

“Even if most people don’t get really sick, there are a lot of people who are getting infected with omicron, and some portion of them will get severely ill and need hospital care. Even if it’s a small portion of the overall total, this could mean a huge number of people getting sick enough to need hospitalization.”

Mark Taylor of the Washington Medical Coordination Center at Harborview Medical Center in Seattle, echoed her perspective.

“We really do not currently have the capacity within our facilities to accommodate a large surge as we just came through with the Delta surge.”

The most recent data available from the WSDoH is from Dec. 22. On Wednesday, there were 702 COVID patients hospitalized in Washington, with 95 requiring ventilators. The number of hospitalized patients had increased 13 percent in 48 hours before the Christmas holiday data break.

Using the 7 day moving average data from the Healthcare Readiness tab from the WSDoH COVID dashboard, there are an estimated 652 staffed acute care and 145 staffed ICU beds available across the state. If COVID cases were to double over the next ten days regional hospitals will run out of all beds, unless other measures are taken.

Demoralized doctors and nurses are already in a physical, emotional, and mental health crisis as the Delta wave was coming to an end. Over the weekend, many expressed fury at new guidelines released by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on Christmas Eve.

The new guidelines reduced the amount of time medical personnel needs to isolate if they have close contact or are positive for COVID. If hospitals move to contingency care hospital workers could be made to return to work after five days, even if they are mildly symptomatic. Under crisis standards of care, employees could be made to continue to work even if they are experiencing mild or moderate symptoms.

The CDC defines moderate illness as, “individuals who have evidence of lower respiratory disease, by clinical assessment or imaging, and a saturation of oxygen (SpO2) ≥94% on room air at sea level.”

More troubling, The update has no specific requirements for N95 masks or N100 respirators, defining facemasks as, “OSHA defines facemasks as “a surgical, medical procedure, dental, or isolation mask that is FDA-cleared, authorized by an FDA EUA, or offered or distributed as described in an FDA enforcement policy. Facemasks may also be referred to as ‘medical procedure masks’.”

The medical community is concerned that COVID could be passed to patients hospitalized for other reasons, while spreading among other staff, limiting the ability to meet rising cases. In states where medical personnel isn’t required to be vaccinated, data from South Africa and the UK suggests the CDC guidelines could have a devastating impact on hospital readiness.

As a better understanding of Omicron has become available a grim picture for January is emerging. In King County, 81.3% of all residents five and older are fully vaccinated. That is almost ten percent lower than London and the vaccination rate for Washington state isn’t much higher than Florida.

Several studies have shown that the current vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer have significantly reduced effectiveness without a booster. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is even less effective. Boosters have been proven to provide additional projection, but breakthrough cases remain frequent. For most of the vaccinated that develop symptoms, their cases are mild to moderate.

The number of breakthrough cases had driven up anti-vaccination rhetoric at a national and even local level, with Jason Rantz criticizing the King County vaccine mandate.

“But if Omicron evades the vaccine and the best protection, according to the city, and the department is to abide by procedures used before a vaccine was even available, then what sense did it make to fire unvaccinated staff? They’re just as vulnerable to the dominant variant as the vaccinated.”

The statement is factually incorrect, given the evidence from South Africa, Israel, Denmark, and the UK showing that while breakthrough cases among the vaccinated are high, hospitalizations are extremely low.

Several case studies on the true number of breakthrough cases and vaccine effectiveness have emerged in an unlikely place. Multiple cruise ships have had their itineraries disrupted due to onboard COVID cases. The Royal Caribbean ship, Odyssey of the Seas, was denied entry to two ports of call after confirming 55 coronavirus cases onboard. The ship left port with 95 percent of passengers fully vaccinated. The ship has 3,587 guests and 1,599 crew onboard. If every confirmed case was among vaccinated individuals, the breakthrough rate is around one percent. Officials have stated the cases are asymptomatic or mild.

The new case rate in King County is growing as fast as London with a similar Rt, which indicates up to 90 percent of residents will become infected with COVID in the next 60 days. Most of those cases will be asymptomatic or mild, but for the elderly, children under five years old, the unvaccinated, and the immunocompromised the data strongly suggests outcomes are similar to Delta.

Considering all we have learned about Omicron since Nov. 27 and looking at the data through a clinical, not-politically motivated lens, an unprecedented crisis will arrive with the New Year. If cases continue to double every 2.4 days and the Rt stays above 4, up to 90% of King County residents will be infected over the next 60 days. If COVID hospitalizations double every ten days starting this week, the state will be out of resources by Jan. 15.

As the Omicron variant spreads through Eastern Washington, likely fueled by Christmas holiday travel, officials will look to Western Washington to take their patients. The issues experienced during the Delta surge of patient transfers by aircraft and ambulance will be even worse due to winter weather and an increasing number of sickened personnel.

With pandemic fatigue, politicization, Christmas and New Year’s travel and celebration, and no ability to add additional public health measures without risking a violent response, it seems unlikely that we will prevent what is coming.