[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) Washington state has set new records for COVID cases and hospitalizations, straining every aspect of life and leaving many to wonder, what is next?
Malcontent News has been tracking the Omicron wave in South Africa and the United Kingdom and using the data from these nations to build models for Washington. The path the current surge is taking aligns closely with the progression in South Africa.
New Cases
It took 28 days for the first SGTFs to show up in PCR tests in South Africa at a significant number, to the peak in cases. If Washington follows the same path, new cases in the state should peak on Jan. 17. The last update from the Washington State Department of Health (WSDOH) was supportive of an approaching statewide peak. An analysis of new case data indicated that the Olympic Peninsula, Central Puget Sound, the South Sound counties out to the Pacific Coast have already peaked. In Eastern Washington, many areas are still seven to ten days away.
In South Africa and Europe, cases declined rapidly. If Washington follows the same pattern, new daily cases will be 50 percent of peak by Feb. 2, and then drift to a plateau of 30 to 35 percent of the peak. The plateau will hold until Feb. 14, before starting to decline again.
Washington moved to test only symptomatic and close contacts on Jan. 4. Over the weekend Seattle Children’s Hospital reported they were incapable of testing most pediatric cases for COVID at urgent care clinics, reserving the dwindling supply to only the sickest of patients. The University Washington Medicine is struggling to test staff and immediate family, in compliance with the United States Centers for Disease Control CDC) guidelines.
Clark County residents have appealed to the state for additional testing resources and more access to booster shots. Among the eight locations receiving National Guard support by Jan. 24 for additional testing resources, Vancouver, Washington was not among the locations.
The University of Washington Virology lab is struggling to provide test results to Washington, and some Oregon healthcare providers, processing 12,000 to 14,000 a test a day. On Sunday, 31.9 percent were positive, creating some doubt that a peak in cases has arrived.
Hospitalizations
Hospitalizations are a trailing indicator. We predicted on Dec. 26. that Washington hospitals would run out of available resources by Jan 15. Governor Jay Inslee deployed the national guard and suspended all non-emergency surgeries on Jan. 13, to support overwhelmed hospitals.
In South Africa, seven percent of new Omicron cases resulted in hospitalizations. The unvaccinated made up 82 percent of all COVID hospitalizations. That rate was between 22 and 31 percent of the earlier Delta wave. The exact difference is hard to track after South Africa changed its testing criteria on Dec. 24, testing only people who were symptomatic or had close contacts. Adjusting for South Africa’s higher hospitalization rate versus the United States, and accounting for the lower hospitalization rate among Omicron patients, we initially estimated Washington would experience a 1.14 to 1.34 percent hospitalization rate. Currently, it is between 1.8 and 2.4 percent depending on the hospital region.
The single biggest factor that impacts the outcome of a COVID infection is age. In South Africa, only 5.7 percent of the population is over 60, while 34.1% is under 19. Although it is true that only 26% of the population is fully vaccinated, in Gauteng Province, which bore the brunt of the Omicron wave, 44 percent of the population is fully vaccinated.
In Washington, Stevens, Pend Oreille, Skamania, Asotin, Ferry, Whitman, Klickitat, and Columbia Counties have lower vaccination rates. According to the WSDOH on Thursday, 80 percent of all COVID hospitalizations statewide were unvaccinated – which mirrors the data released from South Africa on Sunday.
In South Africa, the surge of new hospitalizations peaked 10 to 14 days after the new cases reached a peak. If Washington follows that path, new hospitalizations will peak at the end of January.
Despite reports that many cases resulted in short hospitalizations, this was among vaccinated individuals. South Africa found that among unvaccinated individuals, the progress of illness was no different than prior strains of COVID.
The number of hospitalized COVID patients peaked in South Africa on Dec. 31 and remained almost unchanged through Jan. 6. Currently hospitalized coronavirus patients in the African nation are still at 83 percent of peak. The decline has been slow.
For Washington hospitals, this will be an insurmountable challenge. Although the governor announced a pause in elective surgeries statewide on Thursday, many hospitals had already voluntarily taken that step to expand resources. MultiCare reported ten days ago they were forced to implement CDC crisis staffing standards, having COVID positive workers who are experiencing mild to moderate symptoms continue to work.
An analysis of available hospital resources indicated that additional emergency staffing and converting PACUs to COVID wards added 60 to 75 acute care and 10 to 15 ICU beds statewide. With over 250 new COVID patient admissions a day, that added capacity was likely wiped out over the weekend.
If Washington follows the same hospitalization trend, by Jan. 26 the worst of the surge will be hitting our facilities. The number of COVID patients will peak on Feb. 4, and hold until Feb. 10. Although a decline will be accelerating by Feb. 20, a load of 83% of the peak would be unsustainable.
On Friday the WSDOH reported there were 2,135 COVID patients in Washington hospitals, an all-time record. Hospitalizations are increasing 50 percent every week. The IHME model projects almost 4,000 hospitalized coronavirus patients on Feb. 4, either in acute care or the ICU. If Washington follows South Africa, the number would reach 5,038 and then sustain at that level for two weeks before dropping to 4,000.
Last Monday patients were being transferred out of King County to Moses Lake, Richland, and Missoula, Montana. King County hospitals, University of Washington Medicine, and Harborview Medical Center are caring for a record number of COVID patients. In Spokane, Providence and MultiCare hospitals can’t take transfers. Doctors reported angry and desperate phone calls from rural hospitals trying to move patients to larger facilities.
MultiCare and Providence hospitals on both sides of the mountains have deployed tents again. In Everett, Providence Hospital was treating patients in the emergency department waiting room and the halls are lined with patients waiting for beds.
Deaths
Looking to South Africa, the number of deaths from Omicron was significantly lower compared to Delta. The age of the population, a 66% vaccination rate for those over 50, a historically lower COVID death rate compared to Europe and North America, and more available resources contributed to the better outcomes. Additionally, it is summer in South Africa.
COVID-related deaths started to increase on Dec. 11. It is unknown if deaths have reached a peak yet, but on Jan. 16, the 7-day moving average was 105 deaths a day. All signs in South Africa indicate the Omicron surge is reaching its finality.
In Washington, the population is older and in poorer health. Vaccination rates are higher, but almost one-third of the entire population is not only unvaccinated but politically indoctrinated into the status being part of their identity. They not only dismiss vaccination but all proven public health measures such as indoor mask wear.
Unlike prior waves in Washington, Omicron overwhelmed the larger and better equipped Puget Sound region facilities first. Idaho is starting to surge with new cases and Oregon is straining under its own tidal wave of cases. COVID patients in Eastern Washington will have fewer options than ever before.
If Washington follows the same as South Africa, COVID-related deaths will start to peak in mid-February.
Services and Infrastructure
It is estimated eight to ten percent of all American workers are sick, caring for a sick family member, or quarantining. The United States was already dealing with a worker shortage in 2021, which has been made worse by Omicron. By early February, up to 25 percent of all Washington workers could be sidelined with COVID.
Some of the impacts have already rippled through the region. Empty store shelves, recently restocked after the mountain passes reopened, will struggle to stay full. Pharmacists are warning people to refill their medications now, unsure of their ability to serve the community and have an adequate supply of pills.
Postal workers are driving routes for 12 to 16 hours to fulfill deliveries, and school districts are looking for parent volunteers or moving to virtual learning. In some cities such as Seattle, students have staged walkouts due to high infection rates. In Lakewood, the Walmart Super Center was forced to close for three days for a deep cleaning after 63 workers became sick with COVID.
The day-to-day impact for everyone will include school and daycare closures, spotty store shelves, delayed deliveries, and businesses forced into short-term closures due to a lack of staff. The economic fallout could last for much longer.
Without a dramatic increase in support, state healthcare workers and Washington residents will face a brutal five to six weeks where only the absolute sickest individuals will be able to get medical services, and basic goods and services will require patience to find.
Editor’s Note:An early version of this story reported that the first Omicron case detected in the United States has been changed from Dec. 15 to Nov. 15.
[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) The Washington State Department of Health (WSDOH) reported the 7 day moving average for new COVID cases had jumped to 1,047.9 over the weekend, obliterating previous records. There were 1,773 people hospitalized with COVID across Washington on Sunday, just shy of the previous record set on Sep. 6, 2021.
With an estimated 242 new COVID-related hospitalizations a day, hospitals in the Evergreen State are on the brink of running out of beds and staff. The I-5 corridor from the Canada border to the Columbia River has the highest case rates in Washington, sparked by several super spreader events in Thurston and Pierce Counties on Dec. 4.
COVID cases have exploded in Eastern Washington, including Spokane, Yakima, and Moses Lake. New cases are forecasted to peak in King County by the end of this week but are expected to continue to surge in Eastern Washington.
The updated IHME forecast model is catastrophic for Washington, projecting 3,189 acute care and 804 ICU patients hospitalized with COVID by Feb. 4. Malcontent News estimates there are 375 staffed acute care and 95 ICU beds available in Washington state, with a coming surge of 2,000 more patients in less than a month.
The Washington State Hospital Association made dire predictions last week. Dr. Francis Riedo, medical director for infection control and prevention at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland, told reporters that the state has “never been closer” to moving to crisis standards of care.
In the same briefing, Dr. John Lynch, medical director of Harborview Medical Center’s infection control program, said that UW Medicine and Harborview Medical Center had more COVID patients under care than at any previous point in the epidemic.
The situation is already dire for Puget Sound hospitals, will more than 97 percent of acute care beds occupied. King County Public Health reported 255 new COVID hospitalizations from Friday to Sunday – a rate of a new hospitalization once every 28 minutes. Hospitalizations in King County have surged 110 percent in a week as new cases skyrocket.
Earlier projections based on case data from South Africa and the United Kingdom estimated that King County hospitalization rates would be by 20% to 30% from the previous Delta wave. Projections reduced the percentage of COVID cases that resulted in hospitalization from 4.7% to 1.14%. Based on data from the first week of January, the rate is almost double – 2.13% – driving hospitalizations to a higher level than previously forecasted.
EvergreenHealth in Kirkland reported 44 hospitalized COVID patients, including one pediatric patient and another four in Monroe. A majority, 70 percent, were hospitalized due to COVID. The remainder is hospitalized for other reasons and co-infected with coronavirus. Five patients are fully vaccinated with boosters, including one in intensive care.
On Monday night, Seattle Children’s Hospital advised parents that its four walk-in urgent care clinics would not accept patients without an appointment due to the unprecedented patient load.
The Washington State Medical Association appealed to Gov. Jay Inslee to declare a crisis and deploy the national guard to support area hospitals. Previous options, including stopping elective surgeries, limiting day procedures, and “boarding” patients in emergency departments, are already being done.
“The time has come to admit that stopping electives and non-urgent care is not enough. We must declare the crisis that our health system is in,” the Jan. 6 letter stated. Cassie Sauer, the Washington State Hospital Association CEO, also signed the letter.
Unlike Idaho, Montana, and Alaska, which had to use crisis standards of care last fall, Washington state will not allow a single facility to move to the emergency protocols. The declaration would come from the state and only occur after all possible options to extend services were exhausted. Under crisis standards of care, patients could be denied care based on need, survival chances, and available resources. Washington developed computer software with Massachusetts and Wisconsin to determine who would receive care. Last week, Oregon announced it was adopting the same computer program.
The physical, mental, and emotional toll of two years of a COVID crisis has decimated the ranks of hospital workers across the country. Omicron is highly contagious and has significant vaccine escape, resulting in hospital workers being sickened. As hospitalizations have surged in the first ten days of January, the number of staffed beds available has slowly declined.
On Thursday, leadership at MultiCare, which runs 11 hospitals across Washington state, reported they had moved to crisis staffing standards in Western Washington. The standard, announced by the United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on Dec. 23, can require workers who are sick with COVID to continue to work if necessary to continue to provide patient care.
The Omicron variant arrived in the United States on Nov. 15 and has shattered all previous records for new cases, daily new hospital admissions, and total hospitalizations. One model projects that nation will face another 300,000 hospitalized with COVID by the middle of February, an impossible task for all existing hospital resources.
[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) The Washington State Department of Health reported that the rate of new COVID cases exploded to 541.9 per 100,000 residents on Monday. The same report showed that coronavirus-related hospitalizations increased 49 percent in a week, from 736 on Dec. 26 to 1,099 on Jan. 2.
Several factors impacted today’s report, which may not show the true impact of COVID in Washington. Most tests sites were closed on New Year’s Day across the state, and numerous Western Washington test locations were closed on Dec. 30, 31, and Jan. 2 due to weather, power issues at one location, and insufficient staff. The hospitalization data appeared incomplete to the Malcontent News research team and will likely be updated tomorrow with more data.
A staggering 26 counties have extreme transmission, with another eight experiencing high transmission. Pierce County has the highest case rate in Washington, 771.0 per 100,000 people.
In King County, 25 people on average are hospitalized a day with COVID, breaking the previous record set during the Delta wave in September. Through Dec. 30, hospitalizations are up 81 percent, and the new case rate of 685.1 has never been higher.
The IHME forecasts hospitalizations will peak in early February, and COVID-related deaths will peak in March.
It wasn’t all bad news in the report. The number of Washingtonians who have received booster shots increased significantly from last week. There is strong evidence from multiple studies and hospitalization data from Israel, Europe, and the United Kingdom, that a third booster dose provides robust protection from severe COVID.
In welcome news to many parents, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized booster shots for 12 to 15-year-olds today and shortened the waiting period for the age group from six months after the second dose to five.
On Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci indicated that the United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) was reconsidering new isolation and quarantine guidelines based on feedback. The CDC has faced withering criticism from healthcare providers and frontline workers for cutting quarantine time in half and relying on the honor system for those who are infected by asymptomatic.
Although Omicron has become the dominant strain in the United States, data out of Connecticut and Washington indicates it won’t squeeze Delta out. Complicating treatment and mitigation, ten percent of COVID cases continue to be Delta or so-called Delta Plus.
According to the New York Times, the United States recorded 1,003,043 new COVID cases on Monday, shattering all previous records. The 7 day moving average is approaching 500,000 new cases a day, which Malcontent News believes is a red line for United States hospitals.
There are now 102,479 people hospitalized with COVID, an increase of 41% from a week ago. Daily new hospital admissions now exceed all previous waves, except the first one, which peaked on Jan. 9, 2021. The United States will set a new all-time hospitalization record if the rate of increase remains unchanged during the coming week.
Testing resources in the United States are stretched to the breaking point, with laboratories processing a near-record number of tests daily. Monday night, the Georgia Department of Health tweeted they could not provide an updated COVID report because there is so much data.
University of Washington Medicine (UWM) officially takes over testing sites from King County on Tuesday. UWM announced that they would no longer provide prophylaxis COVID testing for work and travel, reserving resources only for people who are symptomatic or had close contact with someone infected with the coronavirus.
Speculation on how severe the Omicron variant is compared to Delta continues to run rampant. Disease acquired immunity, vaccinations, boosters, and demographic differences between nations have made reaching a concrete conclusion difficult. There is growing evidence that for the vaccinated, especially with boosters, the Omicron variant is mild to moderate for most.
For the unvaccinated, the data is less conclusive. In South Africa, hundreds have died in the last two weeks. While hospitalizations appear to have peaked, the number has remained almost unchanged for a week while the number of ICU patients and those requiring ventilators has grown. A study published by the United Kingdom Health Security Agency tracked 815 hospitalized Omicron patients with a median age of 45.5. The report found that 57 people had died in the group – seven percent. The ages of those who died ranged from 41 to 99.
Texas officials report the first Omicron related fatality in the United States
Editor’s Note: As a policy, Malcontent News does not quote or publish data from pre-print studies. The transmission rate of the Omicron SARS-CoV2 variant is so high it is spreading at a rate faster than the scientific review process. For this reason, we are using pre-print studies in our reporting and analysis for the Omicron variant. We will continue to backlink to all quoted sources to support transparency in reporting.
Updated: Story edited to report first Omicron death in the United States
[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) Washington state moved back to high transmission risk for COVID as new cases fueled by the Omicron variant grew 32 percent over the weekend. The highly contagious variant was discovered in South Africa, spreading to over 90 countries in six weeks.
The United States was reminded how serious Covid-19 is this evening, with Texas reporting the first Omicron-related death in the nation. Judge Lina Hidalgo of Harris County, Texas, tweeted that a man in his 50s had died of Omicron. He was unvaccinated and had health issues. It is reported he was treated with monoclonal antibodies, which have been rendered ineffective against the Omicron variant.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported 73% of new COVID cases across the United States are the Omicron variant, swamping Delta cases. The World Health Organization estimated cases are doubling every 1.5 to three days.
The CDC estimates that Omicron is 90% of new COVID cases in the New York City area, the Southeast, the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes states, and the Pacific Northwest. Omicron cases have been detected in 48 of 50 states, with Montana, Indiana, and Vermont confirming cases this afternoon.
On December 20, North Dakota, Montana, Indiana, and Vermont reported their first confirmed Omicron cases and Texas reported an Omicron-related death – Oklahoma and South Dakota lag the rest of the country in genomic sequencing of test samples
In Miami, lines of cars waited for hours to get COVID tests. Governor Ron DeSantis had boasted Florida had conquered coronavirus on Oct. 27, using data from the New York Times. On Monday evening, Florida reported more than 7,000 new cases a day, an increase of almost 300% in two weeks – second only to Hawaii.
The Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH) reported a sharp increase in COVID cases. The counties with the highest rates were distributed across Washington from the Olympic Pennisula to the Palouse. Only Wahikakum County reported low community spread on Monday.
Percent of Total Population Fully Vaccinated
Percentage of Vaccinated People with Booster Dose
Total Population in Group
Average 7-Day New Case Rate
70.00% or above
39.15%
2,343,250
170.1
60.00% to 69.99%
35.36%
1,669,300
136.0
50.00% to 59.99%
32.23%
3,339,300
111.6
40.00% to 49.99%
29.41%
268,975
77.6
32.70% to 39.99%
35.38%
151,850
85.5
7 Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate for Total Population, Adjusted for Population by County, Booster percentage is based on totally fully vaccinated, not eligible, Average 7-day New Case Rate <25 normal, =>25 to 99.9 moderate, => 100, high transmission
Federal officials believe the actual case count is much higher due to asymptomatic carriers and home testing, which isn’t reported to county and state health departments.
According to the University of Washington Virology Lab, the genomic sequencing of SGTF COVID test samples was 70% positive for Omicron on Dec. 16. Data provided by Pavitra Roychoudhury, MSc, Ph.D., of the University of Washington Virology Division, showed Omicron cases had been lab-confirmed in Benton, Franklin, King, Pierce, Snohomish, Thurston, Walla Walla, Whatcom, and Yakima Counties.
Researchers had looked at test samples as far back as Nov. 7 from Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.
Frustration was building on social media as Western Washington residents tried to find rapid COVID antigen tests, booster shots, and appointments for children 5 to 11 to get vaccinated. People waited for hours in long lines to get lab tested for Covid-19 and worried about travel plans as the time to get test results back grew past 72 hours.
Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan announced that the Rainier Beach and West Seattle vaccination clinics will remain open for boosters and vaccinations into January 2022. Tests sites across the city run in cooperation with the University of Washington are expanding hours to try and meet growing demand. There are fixed test sites at Aurora, SODO, Rainier Beach, and West Seattle, as well as seven Curative kiosks placed throughout the City. In partnership with the City of Seattle, UW Medicine has also opened a site at City Hall, which is available to the public. Appointments are encouraged at all locations, and sites will be closed on Christmas Day.
Area hospitals are at capacity even though COVID hospitalizations are low
The number of hospitalized COVID patients in Washington has slowly dropped through December. The WSDoH reported there were 640 hospitalized Covid-19 patients on Sunday, and 81 were on ventilators. The numbers are significantly higher than the end of the Fifth Wave in late May, and area hospitals are already filled with non-COVID patients.
Data from the U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) found regional hospitals have scant resources to manage another surge. Almost half of the regional hospital beds available are at Swedish on Broadway in Seattle and St. Joseph’s Medical Center in Tacoma. The report indicated there were 730 beds available, but that includes resources for pediatric patients and neonatal incubators. Available ICU beds include NICU incubators, PICU beds, and critical care resources for post-surgical, transplant, trauma, and burn patients.
Hospital
City
Acute Care Total
Acute Care Available
ICU Total
ICU Available
Overlake
Bellevue
264
17
34
4
Swedish – Cherry Hill
Seattle
170
2
42
16
Seattle Children’s
Seattle
308
29
96
12
U.W. Medical Center
Seattle
641
58
139
98
Swedish – Broadway
Seattle
568
90
79
55
Harborview
Seattle
400
9
97
10
Virginia Mason
Seattle
238
20
33
13
EvergreenHealth
Kirkland
251
8
37
2
Swedish – Issaquah
Issaquah
100
8
30
26
Valley Medical
Renton
292
36
50
27
St. Anne’s
Burien
161
44
31
23
Swedish – Edmonds
Edmonds
173
14
9
5
Harrison Memorial
Bremerton
281
36
49
6
MultiCare
Auburn
138
31
16
1
St. Francis
Federal Way
155
45
15
1
St. Anthony’s
Gig Harbor
108
0
16
3
Providence
Everett
611
47
77
8
Tacoma General
Tacoma
310
-9
46
2
Mary Bridge Children’s
Tacoma
83
34
11
4
St. Joseph’s
Tacoma
573
234
76
14
Data is through December 9, 2021, as reported to the U.S. Health and Human Services for all hospitals with more than 50 beds and ICU resources within 30 miles of downtown Bellevue – acute care beds include adult, pediatric, and neonatal, ICU beds include NICU, PICU, and specialized critical care units for post-surgical, trauma, and burns
In a worrying sign from New York, officials reported on Monday night that while many people are experiencing breakthrough cases and having mild symptoms, unvaccinated individuals were 11 times more likely to be hospitalized.
More data released on vaccine and monoclonal antibody effectiveness against Omicron
In an announcement early Monday, Moderna said preliminary data from lab testing found that a booster of the currently available vaccine increased antibody levels to an effective level. The drugmaker said its currently FDA-approved 50 microgram booster increased neutralizing antibody levels 37-fold against Omicron and 83-fold with a 100 microgram “full dose” booster.
An independent study released last week that evaluated the effectiveness of the Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines had similar results. Vaccine effectiveness appears to be significantly impacted by how long ago someone received their final dose or booster. Multiple studies have found the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is significantly less effective.
Results from a study that reviewed the effectiveness of the Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines after three months, more than six months, with the previous infection, and with a booster. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was evaluated using a Modern 50 microgram dose as a booster
A study from the U.K. found that relying on immunity from a previous COVID infection was only 19 percent effective against preventing symptomatic reinfection and 20 percent when relying on vaccination without a booster. The same study found that a booster dose increased protection by 50 to 85 percent. Overall the risk for reinfection was 5.4 times greater than Delta. The study done by the Imperial College of London used PCR test data from Nov. 29 to Dec. 11.
In New York, hospitalists at Mount Sinai Hospital were advised to stop administering monoclonal antibodies because they were ineffective against Omicron. The memo reported that most people seeking treatment had breakthrough infections with mild symptoms that didn’t warrant hospitalization.
Washington state is waiting for the first 552 doses of the monoclonal antibody sotrovimab. Granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in May, it is the only remaining effective early treatment for Omicron in the United States.
Concern grows as the hopes of Omicron being “only a cold” fade away
South Africa officials reported 105 COVID-related deaths across the nation on Monday. The number of ICU patients has increased 144 percent since Nov. 25. Omicron appears to have peaked in Gauteng Province but continues to spread rapidly across the nation of almost 60 million.
United Kingdom officials reported another five Omicron COVID-related deaths, bringing the total to 12. Hospitalizations of children under 5 increased 39% week over week, and thousands of healthcare workers have been stricken with Covid-19 infections, causing staffing issues.
A study by the University of Texas Austin for the CDC was made public on Dec. 16. It looked at 18 different scenarios for the spread of Omicron. In ten of those scenarios, the healthcare system in the United States is overrun by patients.
President Joe Biden will address the nation on Tuesday to outline the administration’s new steps to aid states and communities while trying to curb the spread of COVID.
Yesterday, former President Donald Trump addressing a crowd of admirers in Dallas told the audience he had received his booster. A smattering of jeers and boos rippled across American Airlines Center.
“Don’t, don’t, don’t, don’t …” he said.
“There’s a very tiny group over there,” the former President added.
[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) A forecast created by Trevor Bedford, Ph.D., an Associate Professor, Biostatistics, Bioinformatics and Epidemiology Program Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, projects that King County will reach record levels by Dec. 22.
In a press conference on Friday, Dr. Jeffrey Duchin, Health Officer, Public Health Seattle & King County said, “The Omicron outbreak we’ve been talking about is no longer theoretical. It is real and it’s here.”
Dr. Duchin shared the current situation in King County, adding that UW Medicine is finding 40% of tests are positive for Omicron and new COVID cases are up 50% since Thanksgiving.
Dr. Santiago Neme, MD, MPH of UW Medicine expressed concern over the number of patients already in Washington hospitals. “Our numbers for COVID infected patients have decreased,” Dr. Neme, said, “but we have been operating at a full or over full capacity for several months in many areas of the state.”
“Any increase in hospital rates or utilization will be pretty challenging for us and very concerning.”
Dr. Duchin added that In King County, hospitals are already caring for twice as many patients as before the start of the Delta wave in August.
Bedford told reporters that the Seattle-Bellevue area would be one of the first cities in the United States to experience widespread Omicron infections and the area was only “a few days” behind London. “New York City is ahead of Seattle and Rhode Island is as well,” he said. But he added this may be due to Seattle having “great S gene drop out data.” S Gene Target Failure (SGTF) is a faster way to identify a likely Omicron variant infection from a positive COVID test. Genomic sequencing is required to make an absolute determination.
Dr. Alexander L. Greninger M.D., Ph.D., M.S., M.Phil., assistant director of the UW Medicine Clinical Virology Laboratory told reporters that sequencing has a 5 to 7 day lag time.
“The number of samples coming into the labs are as high as we’ve seen during the pandemic, yesterday and the day before,” Dr. Greninger added. The UW Medicine Virology Lab has sequenced about 100 samples, and “98 or 99” were positive for Omicron.
The model was created using genomic sequencing data of positive COVID tests, and information on transmission rates from other countries such as the United Kingdom and South Africa. Bedford estimated Omicron cases were doubling in King County every 2.2 days, which is supported by reports from the University of Washington Department of Virology. If the forecast is accurate there could be 2,100 Omicron cases on top of 500 Delta cases in King County by Wednesday. That would far exceed the record number of daily new cases during the fifth wave, and the doubling would continue every one to three days into January.
“Omicron is an airborne disease like Delta and spreads easier indoors, and is a lot more contagious,” Dr. Duchin said, adding, “We do not yet have a clear picture on severity.”
To prepare for the coming wave the message was clear, “The single most important thing you can do is to get vaccinated and boosted even if you’ve had a prior infection,” said Dr. Duchin, “but vaccination alone won’t stop the spread of Omicron.”
King County Health said we need to take advantage of as many layers of protection as we can. That includes wearing tight-fitting N-95, KN-95, or KN-94 masks indoors. The public should avoid crowded indoor spaces, especially if people are unmasked and there is poor air circulation. If anyone feels sick, they should get tested for COVID and stay home to help blunt the spread.
“If you do gather please do safely as possible,” Dr. Duchin appealed. “Limit the number and size of gatherings. Avoid crowded indoor spaces. Do a rapid test on the day of the gathering. Gatherings will be better in large outdoor places or indoor with open windows and doors.”
Dr. Duchin also recommends avoiding travel, especially to areas with high COVID transmission rates. He added that King County has not closed the door on further public health safety measures, but does not plan to add additional measures beyond the guidelines already in place.
The panel stressed that the severity of illness caused by Omicron is still not known. “My read on severity is still difficult – a large portion of infections are both breakthrough and reinfections,” Bedford told reporters. “It may well be the case that Omicron is intrinsically less severe than Delta, but we don’t know. What matters is how many cases do we get and what fraction of those cases require hospitalizations. That is going to be a very large number of cases, severity is not clear enough to know if it will be very bad, bad, or not so bad.”
When asked about breakthrough cases among the vaccinated, Dr. Greninger said, “Moderna and Pfizer are significantly better than Johnson & Johnson.”
“Serious infection is the most important,” added Dr. Duchin. “Meaningful protection against serious infection, hospitalization, and death will protect many of us in vaccinated communities.”
In King County, 160,000 people 12 and older remain unvaccinated and 250,000 have only had a single dose. According to the Washington State Department of Health, about one-third of fully vaccinated King County residents have received a booster dose.
Public and private employers were urged to start contingency planning now to prepare for staffing shortages. “We need to prepare for a large wave of people becoming ill quickly together,” added Dr. Duchin. “We will try to get guidance so we can get people back to work as soon as possible but plan for ‘large scale’ absenteeism.
Public testing sites for COVID will remain open through the holiday season except on Christmas and New Year’s Day. When asked what to do if you need a test on Christmas or New Year’s, Dr. Duchin recommended using a home test versus going to a hospital emergency department.
When asked about the rest of the United States, Bedford didn’t provide an optimistic picture. “Expect things to light up across the United States shortly – first in the cities and then rural areas.”
Looking ahead to the future, Bedford shared that the models he created in the fall have changed significantly due to the Omicron variant.
“Omicron makes things ‘significantly worse.’ I’m quite worried in nine months we will have both Omicron and Delta circulating,” adding, “Omicron will not get us out of this.”
Editor’s Note: As a policy, Malcontent News does not quote or publish data from pre-print studies. The transmission rate of the Omicron SARS-CoV2 variant is so high it is spreading at a rate faster than the scientific review process. It is for this reason, we are using pre-print studies in our reporting and analysis for the Omicron variant. We will continue to backlink to all quoted sources to support transparency in reporting.
[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) Pavitra Roychoudhury, MSc, Ph.D., of the University of Washington Virology Division, reported 13% of tests samples submitted for genomic sequencing on Dec. 8 were positive for the Omicron variant. Tentative confirmation was made using an S Gene Target Failure (SGTF) test, with Dr. Roychoudhury indicating in a tweet that it will take a few days for genomic sequencing confirmation.
Using the data provided by the University of Washington, Omicron variant cases in Washington doubled every 24 hours from Dec. 6 to Dec. 8. The total number of new COVID cases being detected indicates that the Omicron variant is rapidly replacing Delta, not adding to confirmed cases at this time.
At @UWVirology, we continue to screen positive specimens using SGTF. Confirmation by sequencing usually lags by a few days, but we expect the majority of these SGTFs to be Omicron. If so, definitely seeing a rapid rise similar to reports from South Africa, UK, Denmark, etc. https://t.co/Qb1LrEdT6tpic.twitter.com/1d7Rheqoe6
If the rate of new case growth for Omicron continues at the current rate in Washington, it would be the fastest case growth rate observed to date. In South Africa and across the United States, Omicron cases have been doubling every three days. In the United Kingdom, cases have been doubling every two-and-a-half days and in Denmark, every two days.
Lancet Labs in South Africa started seeing an alarming number of PCR tests from the Gauteng Province missing the target S gene in mid-November. Lancet shared the findings with the Network for Genomics Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA), which called an urgent meeting on 23 November. “We were shocked by the number of mutations,” says Tulio de Oliveira in a report in Science, a virologist at the University of KwaZulu-Natal and NGS-SA’s principal investigator.
On Nov. 24, Dr. Alex Sigal of the Africa Health Institute received three test swabs with the Omicron variant and started growing the virus to test it against sera from vaccinated and recovered individuals.
On the same day, Lancet sequenced another 100 samples with the missing S gene, and all were positive for the newly discovered variant. The South Africa Department of Health sent their findings to the World Health Organization (WHO) on Nov. 24, and Omicron was labeled a Variant of Concern (VOC) on Nov. 26.
Nevada became the most recent state to report an Omicron variant COVID case on December 14
Preliminary data has emerged over the last week on transmissibility, treatment efficacy, and vaccine effectiveness for Omicron.
A study out of South Africa published on Dec. 2, found that Omicron was 2.5 to 3.5 times more transmissible than Delta. The study, which has not been peer-reviewed, indicated the Rt, a measure of how quickly a communicable disease can spread, is between R12 and R17, which is comparative to measles. On Dec. 8, Hiroshi Nishiura, professor at Kyoto University released a study that found Omicron is 4.2 times more transmissible than Delta with an Rt of R20. If additional research were to find this true, the Omicron COVID variant would be the most transmissible disease observed in the modern medicine era.
Eleven studies and reports, none of which have been peer-reviewed, have been published on vaccine effectiveness in the last 10 days. Studies have evaluated the Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson and Johnson, and AstraZeneca vaccines.
Studies that reviewed the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine found that the effectiveness of preventing symptomatic illness dropped from 80% to zero to 35%, depending on the study. Very limited real-world data out of South Africa from Discovery Health released today showed that the Pfizer vaccine was only 33% effective at preventing infection.
The same study found that the Pfizer vaccine was 70% effective at preventing “severe complications of Covid-19,” down from 93% with the Delta variant.
Dr. Peter English, Retired Consultant in Communicable Disease Control, Former Editor of Vaccines in Practice, past Chair of the BMA Public Health Medicine Committee had this to say about the findings.
“Two doses of vaccine are 70% effective at preventing hospitalization. They are not ineffective, but they are much less effective than the 90-95% protection that two doses provided against hospitalization. With a highly infectious variant, this still risks a catastrophic number of hospitalizations.”
Researchers evaluated the sera from 239 vaccinated healthcare workers in the Boston area. The study found that for the Moderna and Pfizer vaccine, more than 50% of individuals had no neutralizing antibodies three months after vaccination. The Moderna vaccine showed a 43-fold decrease in antibodies while the Pfizer vaccine had a 122-fold decrease. The Johnson and Johnson vaccine performed better against the Omicron variant versus Delta but had significantly reduced effectiveness versus the original COVID strain.
For individuals who had a prior Covid-19 infection and then got vaccinated more than six months ago, the Moderna vaccine had a 9-fold decrease in neutralizing antibodies, the Pfizer vaccine had a 12-fold decrease, and the Johnson & Johnson vaccine had a 17-fold decrease.
The study also found an mRNA booster within the last three months provided a significant increase in neutralizing antibodies but did not provide the same level of protection versus the Delta variant. The samples from the Johnson and Johnson test subjects were all boosted with a half-dose of the Moderna vaccine.
Two studies on disease acquired immunity found that protection declined significantly compared to previous variants. A study published on Dec. 2 out of South Africa, which has not been peer-reviewed, found that protection against Omicron dropped 240% for individuals who were previously infected by the original strain, Beta, or Delta, and had never been vaccinated. Another study released on Dec. 9 reached a similar conclusion, and in an alarming find, reported up to 40% of individuals who had a previous Delta infection were experiencing reinfection with Omicron. The Delta wave ended on Sep. 19 in South Africa, suggesting it took less than three months for protection to wane.
Scientists, public health officials, and policymakers have been attempting to determine if Omicron is less severe than the Delta variant. The study released from Discovery Health today reported that Omicron was 29% less severe than the original COVID strain.
“Without seeing a preprint or the report on which this press release is based it is difficult to get a clear understanding of the validity of these conclusions,” said Prof. Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine at the University of East Anglia and a member of the National Institute of Health Research in the U.K. “If these are valid conclusions then there are both reassuring and worrying findings. The report that reinfections are more common with Omicron has already been published and the evidence is strong that Omicron can increase the risk of infection in people who have already had a COVID infection.”
Other experts warned against reading too much into the Discovery Health report.
Dr. Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology, University of Reading, said, “This press release outlines preliminary observations of Covid-19 in South Africa during the first three weeks of the wave of infections caused by the Omicron. It shouldn’t be forgotten that in the UK, during the initial epidemic there was a 5-week gap between the first diagnosis and the first death. A situation report taken in those first few weeks would not have given us an accurate picture of what was about to happen, so we shouldn’t expect these preliminary indications to be a portent of how the Omicron epidemic will play out here.”
The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) provided detailed information on Dec. 10 about the first 43 Omicron variant cases detected in the United States. The report found that one person required hospitalization and was released after two days. Almost 60% were 39 years old or younger and 33% had recently traveled internationally. Forty of the 43 cases were vaccinated or had a previous COVID infection. Among the 34 who were vaccinated, 14 had received a booster.
Officials believe the high infection rate for vaccinated individuals has created a data fallacy. International travelers are more likely to be vaccinated, younger, and healthier and many were not eligible for a booster.
The Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH) reported 75.3% of all Washingtonians 12 and older are fully vaccinated and almost one in four children five to eleven have received their first dose of the Pfizer COVID vaccine. An estimated 3.5 million residents are eligible for boosters, but only 1.35 million have received one to date.
WSDoH reported the 7 day moving average for new cases is 1,333, and the statewide 7 day moving average new case rate is 83.5 per 100K residents – moderate transmission. The state has been averaging 650 to 700 hospitalized COVID patients a day, with roughly 100 requiring ventilators.
Statewide new admissions for COVID-related illness started increasing on Nov. 27, and through Dec 7. was averaging 92 new admissions a day. On Tuesday there were approximately 642 available staffed acute care and 144 staffed ICU beds throughout Washington.
[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) The Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH), in partnership with the UW Medicine Virology Laboratory, has confirmed a total of three cases of omicron variant in Thurston County, Pierce County, and King County. The patients range in age from 20 to 39, two men, one woman.
The patients are:
a man in his thirties from Thurston County,
a man in his twenties from Pierce County, and
a woman in her twenties from King County.
Confirmation came in midday Saturday, and officials were still in the process of notifying the patients.
The WSDoH did not have information on their condition, travel history, or vaccination status. The samples were collected using PCR tests between Nov. 29 and Dec. 1 and were submitted for genomic sequencing.
Sequencing has been prioritized for anyone with travel history or close contact with a confirmed case.
“We knew that it was a matter of time before omicron was sequenced in our state and so we were anticipating this very news,” said Umair A. Shah, MD, MPH, Secretary of Health. “We strongly urge people to get vaccinated and get their boosters as soon as possible to maximize their level of protection from any variant.”
“Even with a highly mutated virus-like omicron, we are not going back to square one of the pandemic,” said Dr. Jeff Duchin, Health Officer, Public Health – Seattle & King County. “Omicron may pose new challenges that we will need to respond to, but compared to the early days of the pandemic, we know much more about COVID-19, and we’re better prepared for it. We know layered protections work together to maximally reduce risk, and that will continue to be the case for delta and for omicron if that becomes a dominant strain circulating in our community.”
“We suspected that the omicron variant was circulating in our region, and now our laboratory has confirmed the first three cases in Washington state by viral genome sequencing in the last 24 hours. Throughout the pandemic, it’s been a huge team effort by the UW Medicine Virology Laboratory, requiring development and implementation of several diagnostic and sequencing assays to detect and confirm the variety of COVID-19 variants that have surfaced in Washington state,” said Dr. Geoffrey Baird, chair of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology at UW School of Medicine. To date, the laboratory has tested approximately 3.8 million COVID-19 samples.
A study about the transmissibility of the omicron variant was released from a multinational group of researchers on Friday. The study, which has not been peer-reviewed, indicated that omicron is two times to three times more transmissible than the prevalent delta variant. Researchers estimate that the Rt, called, “r-naught,” is R12 to R17, which is equivalent to measles. The Rt for delta is R6.0 and for the AY.4.2 delta variant is R6.6.
Another study released on Thursday indicated that people relying on disease acquired immunity are up to 240% more likely to be infected from the omicron variant versus the beta or delta variants.
The CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna stated their vaccines would remain highly effective at preventing severe COVID and hospitalizations. Researchers are still one to two weeks away from preliminary information on if there will be significant vaccine escape with the omicron variant.
Public health officials are recommended for the unvaccinated to get vaccinated and for the 2.2 million Washingtonians eligible for a booster to get one. Washington state continues to have an indoor mask mandate.
Individuals who are experiencing COVID-like symptoms or have a known close contact should get tested. If you have traveled or know you had close contact with a traveler and get a positive test result from a home test, you should follow up with a PCR test to aid in tracking the spread of the omicron COVID variant.
Knowledge is the best tool to fight against fear. A wise person chooses to be informed so they can make sound decisions. To join the fight against COVID misinformation, you can share this update through your social media platform of choice.
[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) Health officials and researchers are in a race against time to unlock the secrets of the Omicron COVID variant and its potential impact on public health as more nations report discovered cases.
Washington state is one of the leaders in genomic sequencing of COVID tests samples in the United States, led by the University of Washington Medicine. Standard PCR tests can detect a marker for a potential Omicron variant. Omicron shares a mutation with the Alpha variant that the current PCR tests look for, enabling researchers to see if a specific spike protein has a deletion. That would become a probable case that would be tagged for confirmational sequencing.
President Joe Biden addressed the nation on Monday saying, “there are three messages about the new variant that I want the American people to hear. First, this variant is a cause for concern, not a cause for panic.”
The President went on to praise South African officials and their scientific community for, “the kind of transparency that should be encouraged and applauded.”
Currently, in Washington, 99.6% of new COVID cases are the Delta variant, and 0.4% are Mu. The last cases of the Beta, Epsilon, Eta, and Kappa variants were detected in June and the last cases of Gamma and Iota were in August.
“Omicron has an unprecedented number of spike mutations, some of which are concerning for their potential impact on the trajectory of the pandemic,” the WHO said in a statement today.
“The overall global risk related to the new variant …is assessed as very high.”
On Sunday, Dr. Angelique Coetzee told South Africa Today, “Most of these cases are mild whether they are vaccinated or not. There is no increase in our hospital admissions currently.”
Hospital admission for COVID-19 by week, South Africa Gauteng Province, Public and Private Hopsital, through November 28, 2021
Less than 12 hours later, the hospital admission data from the South Africa Department of Health painted a very different picture. In the previous week, COVID hospitalizations had increased 66% nationwide and 210% in Gauteng Province, the epicenter for Omicron cases. Two weeks ago 135 Covid-19 patients were hospitalized in and around Johannesburg jumping to 580 on Monday morning. Hospitalizations at public and private hospitals increased almost equally and officials at Baragwanath Hospital reported moderate to severe symptoms with almost all patients unvaccinated or partially vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine.
Dr. Coetzee in her interview on Sunday went on to take a more cautionary position, “Two weeks from now we might say something different, but we urge…people out there please get vaccinated, listen, do the right thing, and stop going to big gatherings.”
She also added the unvaccinated should be worried, saying, “especially if you are above the age of 50, we have seen this many times.”
“There is a saying. You’re not safe until everyone is vaccinated.”
The 7 day rolling average for new COVID cases in South Africa grew to 2,275 on Monday, 90% of new cases are Omicron, and 10.8% of tests are coming back positive
The WHO appeared to address the reports from Dr. Coutzee and her reports on the severity of the new variant in a statement last night. “There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants.”
The statement added, “Initial reported infections were among university students—younger individuals who tend to have more mild disease—but understanding the level of severity of the Omicron variant will take days to several weeks.”
Dr. Coetzee saw her first suspected Omicron variant patient on November 18 and has based her statement of symptoms being mild on two-dozen patients who are mostly university students and younger, and about 50% vaccinated. In an interview with the BBC on Thursday, she stated all were in good health with no comorbidities.
Although she is credited and has self-proclaimed to have “discovered” Omicron, the first detection of the B.1.1.529 variant was collected on November 9 in Botswana and confirmed by South African scientists on November 11. South African officials notified WHO on November 24, a day before Dr. Coutzee stated she contacted South African authorities on her observations.
Despite a lot of unanswered questions, a clearer picture is slowly starting to emerge. The three riddles scientists need to solve are how contagious Omicron is compared to the Delta variant, can it escape public health measures, preventions, and treatments, and if the symptoms are the same, worse, or milder than previous variants.
Here is what is currently known about the Omicron COVID variant.
Symptoms
For children, adolescents, and young adults there is conflicting information. One doctor is reporting mostly mild symptoms that can be treated at home while hospital officials are reporting cases are similar to Delta.
The WHO stated on Sunday, “There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants.”
Transmissiblity
Concern is growing among the CDC, WHO, and a constellation of health officials that Omicron is highly transmissible. At least equal to Delta and possibly higher.
In less than two weeks, Omicron went from almost non-existent to 90% of new cases in South Africa. It appears it can effectively outcompete the Delta variant. However, this introduces bias in the data because the Delta wave had just ended in South Africa. Did Omicron become the dominant strain by outcompeting Delta or due to the absence of Delta? More research needs to be done to answer that question.
There are other variables that could explain the sharp increase in cases that go beyond the simple reproductive number, known as R0. Omicron has so many more mutations than previous strains, it could be benefiting from immune escape. Although the R0 is lower than Delta, its uniqueness compared to previous mutations enables it to reinfect people relying on natural immunity. So overall transmissibility may be lower than Delta, but its ability to escape immunity results in more infections.
Is it in the United States
Cassie Sauer, CEO of the Washington State Hospital Association said on Monday, “I think that there is almost no chance that it’s not [here.]”
The United States does not have a national standard or requirement to genetically sequence some or all COVID tests that come back positive. Those decisions are left up to individual states. It is likely that states with aggressive public health programs such as California, Washington, Colorado, New York, or Massachusetts will identify the first cases.
How long do researchers think Omicron has been circulating
Dr. Trevor Bedford from Fred Hutchinson in Houston, Texas successfully estimated the arrival of the original COVID strain in 2020, using data from the Washington State Department of Health. Using the same methodology, Dr. Bedford’s model indicates that Omicron likely started circulating between September 19 and October 21. There is no evidence to support that the variant originated in South Africa.
Credit – Dr. Trevor Bedford, Fred Hutchinson, Houston, Texas – probability of origin date for Omicron variant
Why are so many travelers testing positive
In total numbers, there aren’t many travelers testing positive. When you consider that in all but two cases the testing of 200 to 250 people on an aircraft has yielded one or two positives, the percentage of breakthrough cases is small. Headlines are blaring two positive cases detected, which is critical to know – they aren’t blaring 248 negative tests on 777 that landed tonight.
Because the people tested are 95% to 100% vaccinated, this creates a false data fallacy. You have an almost exclusive sample of vaccinated people.
In South Africa, the Department of Health has reported almost everyone hospitalized in the last two weeks is unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated. Dr. Coetzee reported 12 of 24 patients she cared for were unvaccinated.
Based on this early data, it appears the current vaccines remain at least moderately effective at preventing infection and remain very effective at stopping moderate to severe COVID.
Are the current vaccines ineffective
There isn’t enough data, and almost every public company making a vaccine announced over the weekend they were testing their current versions against Omicron. Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson announced over the holiday weekend they were testing to see if the current vaccines remained effective.
There is some data out of South Africa that is indicating that vaccines are helping prevent moderate to severe illness and the cases being detected among vaccinated travelers appear to be asymptomatic to mild. However, many of those cases were detected in the last 72 hours and more time is needed to see how these new cases will progress.
In Israel, the first three travel-related cases were fully vaccinated with boosters. One was Pfizer, one was J&J, and one was AstraZeneca. We know that the viral-vector vaccines haven’t performed as well against the Delta variant as the mRNA vaccines.
The evidence suggests that there is more vaccine escape with Omicron, but not outright vaccine ineffectiveness. It still appears to be preventing hospitalizations, which would indicate it would prevent deaths.
Pfizer said they could make a new version if required in 100 days and Moderna said it would take 60 to 90 days. Johnson & Johnson did not provide a timeline but made a statement today they could create an updated version if it was required.
There are some new COVID vaccines in development called subunit vaccinations. There has been no information about the impact Omicron will have on the research.
Is disease acquired immunity still effective
There is growing evidence that immunity gained from a previous COVID infection that isn’t supported by vaccination, is experiencing significant breakthrough numbers.
Researchers are working to determine if the sharp increase in the number of cases and the high positivity rate of tests is due to Omicron being equally or more transmissible than Delta, or if part of the increase is being driven by other factors.
The pattern of mutations found in Omicron is very distant from all previous strains.
Are monoclonal antibodies still effective
There is evidence that Omicron has a significant ability to resist monoclonal antibodies. Specific mutations may have the capability to not only bypass B cells but resist T cells (which isn’t the same as HIV which destroys your T cells).
UW Medicine is evaluating the performance of currently available antiviral treatments and we will know more information in the coming weeks.
Will the new antivirals that are pending approval still be effective
There was a report from Pfizer on Monday morning that Paxlovid is effective against the Omicron variant, which is very good news. This is easy to administer than monoclonal antibodies, easier to distribute, and cheaper.
Nothing has been stated about Monulpiravir from Merck. The FDA will be considering the EUA request this week but there are hints they will label Monulpiravir a Class C drug if the EUA is granted. A Class C drug can’t be used by pregnant women, women actively trying to get pregnant, and nursing mothers because the drug has not been tested to determine if it causes birth defects or pregnancy complications. The FDA has already requested data for Merck to understand the impact better.
What should I do
Health officials recommend you continue to do the same things you are doing now. Get vaccinated if you’re not already. Get a booster shot if you’re eligible, and over 2.4 million Washingtonians are currently eligible. Wear a mask, wash your hands, avoid crowded indoor spaces, and reconsider your short term travel plans if you were planning to fly.
[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) Public health officials are scrambling to understand the seriousness of the Omicron Covid-19 variant as a growing list of nations report probable and confirmed cases.
First confirmed on November 11 among four people from Botswana who had returned from traveling to neighboring South Africa, new cases in the nation of 59 million have leaped from 356 on the 11th to 3,220 on Saturday. Test positivity also increased dramatically in the last 16 days climbing from 1.1% to 9.2%. Test positivity over 5% is an indicator of under testing and over 7% is a signal there is growing community transmission.
Confirmed COVID cases in South Africa from November 11 to November 27, Data from South Africa Ministry of Health COVID Daily Report Dashboard
On Friday, the World Health Organization (WHO) named the variant formerly known at B.1.1.529, Omicron, and labeled it a Variant of Concern (VOC). The variant has more than 50 mutations from the original COVID strain and shares many mutations with other VOCs. There are 32 mutations on the spike proteins, which can potentially impact transmissibility and increase the level of vaccine escape the Delta variant has.
Before the WHO met on Friday, new cases were confirmed in Israel, Belgium, and Hong Kong. By Saturday, Italy, England, Germany, and the Czech Republic have reported confirmed cases. Netherlands officials stopped two flights arriving from Johannesburg and retested more than 650 people for Covid-19, finding 61 new cases. The people who tested positive have been placed in isolation and their cases are being genetically sequenced to determine which variant they have.
On Friday evening all but two confirmed cases of the Omicron variant outside of the African continent were travel-related. One case in Belgium appears to have been caused by community spread. In Hong Kong, a person in a quarantine hotel became infected by another COVID positive occupant “across the hall.” The case detected in Belgium involves an unvaccinated individual while the Hong Kong case involves a person vaccinated in May or June.
Disinformation is spreading that cases are only among the vaccinated. South Africa had some early success in rolling out the COVID vaccine, but today only 24.11% of the population is fully vaccinated. Further misinformation that vaccines created the mutation isn’t supported or factual. Vaccines prevent mutations by reducing the number of people who can be infected and only 6% of all Africans are vaccinated against COVID. Because most recreational international travel requires a person to be fully vaccinated, travel-related cases are creating a short-term data fallacy.
Many nations including the United States and Canada have announced travel restrictions or bans to a varying list of six to ten countries in the southern part of Africa. Starting Sunday, air travel from South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi will be restricted to US citizens and lawfully permanent residents. Delta and United Airlines have direct flights to South Africa from the United States.
A chorus of epidemiologists and health officials are calling the restrictions ineffective and politically motivated.
Based on the history of other variants it is likely Omicron was circulating before its November 9 detection. The United States relaxed air travel restrictions on November 8. There are no confirmed or suspected cases in North America, but infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci told reporters it is “possibly” already here.
One mutation is working in favor of public health and helping track the spread of the new variant. Omicron is missing a protein, and the absence can be detected by a PCR test. Genomic sequencing is still required for final confirmation, but the mutation makes probable cases easy to detect.
Pfizer and its Germany partner BioNTech as well as Moderna announced on Friday there were studying the efficacy of the currently available COVID vaccines and have plans to create an update if required. Both indicated research would take approximately two weeks and Pfizer stated a new vaccine could be available in 100 days, pending regulatory approval.
“From the beginning, we have said that as we seek to defeat the pandemic, it is imperative that we are proactive as the virus evolves,” said Moderna’s Chief Executive Officer Stéphane Bancel. “We have three lines of defense that we are advancing in parallel: we have already evaluated a higher dose booster of mRNA-1273, second, we are already studying two multi-valent booster candidates in the clinic that were designed to anticipate mutations such as those that have emerged in the Omicron variant and data is expected in the coming weeks, and third, we are rapidly advancing an Omicron-specific booster candidate.”
Doctors at UW Medicine in Seattle are studying the effectiveness of antiviral medications against the new strain. Dr. Deborah Fuller, speaking with local TV station KCPQ, did not specifically state if monoclonal antibodies such as Regeneron, molnupiravir by Merck, or Paxlovid by Pfizer were being studied.
Regeneron has been an effective early treatment for COVID and is credited with preventing as many as 10,000 hospitalizations in Florida. Some of the mutations indicate that Omicron may be able to resist or escape the drug. Molnupiravir is an antiviral developed in 2019 as a treatment for Influenza, Ebola, and other viral infections. Research showed the oral medication halved severe Covid-19 infections and deaths and is pending Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Paxlovid was developed as a therapeutic for Covid-19 and was 89% effective at preventing hospitalization. The antiviral is also an oral medication and is being reviewed by the FDA to receive a EUA.
Molnupiravir is an antiviral medication currently under evaluation by the FDA that has shown strong promise as a viable COVID treatment
New York Governor Kathy Hochul declared a state of emergency on Friday evening ahead of any new case spikes. The declaration goes into effect on December 3 and will enable the state to increase hospital capacity and release funds to hire additional staff and medical supplies. When the United States State Department eased travel restrictions on November 8, New York City was the number one chosen destination for European travelers. Orlando and Phoenix were number two and three.
A lot more will be known in the next two to four weeks about Omicron. The three questions epidemiologists will be working to answer include does Omicron spread faster than Delta, can Omicron escape some of our therapies and public health measures, and if those sickened by the new variant suffer from equal, more severe, or more mild symptoms.
Public health officials recommend that getting vaccinated and getting your booster if you’re eligible, wearing masks, avoiding crowded indoor spaces, and deferring travel are the best lines of defense until more is known. People who feel sick should not dismiss their symptoms as a cold or flu and should test for COVID. A positive result with a home test should be followed up with a PCR test to confirm the results and help public health track which variants are spreading.
The Washington State Department of Health is closed from Thursday to Sunday for the Thanksgiving holiday and has not made any statement.
As of Saturday afternoon, the number of confirmed cases globally can be counted in the dozens – caution and not panic should be the word of the day.
Knowledge is the best tool to fight against fear. A wise person chooses to be informed so they can make sound decisions. To join the fight against COVID misinformation, you can share this update through your social media platform of choice.
[KING COUNTY, Wash.] – (MTN) New Covid-19 cases are stuck on a plateau while hospitalizations increased 7% over the last week. An analysis of available data provides strong evidence the pandemic of the unvaccinated continues.
The FDA has authorized the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use in children 5 to 11 today. The Centers for Disease Control Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices is meeting on November 2 and 3. It is widely expected the panel will support the authorization. UW Medicine has announced a waitlist for parents who want to get their children immunized.
Washington Governor Jay Inslee expressed growing concern over the case rates and said the state is at a “fork in a road.” In what is likely the last broad challenge for the state vaccine mandate, a U.S. District Judge denied a last-ditch effort to block the public health rules on the grounds it was a violation of civil rights.
Data from August to September is supportive of following the Centers for Disease Control’s back-to-school guidelines, with Washington schools reporting 189 outbreaks statewide, with only a handful resulting in school closures.
A former naturopathic doctor on the Olympic Peninsula was convicted for misbranding drugs, reselling them, and making false claims of offering a COVID cure. Richard Marschall, 68, has been convicted for the third time since 2011. Washougal Physician Assistant Scott Miller will face the medical board on November 3, for allegedly spreading Covid-19 disinformation. Miller had his license suspended earlier this month after an investigation into his activities that started in August 2021.
Washington State University tried to counter the COVID misinformation former football coach Nick Rolovich believed as early as April 2021 to no avail.
Last week, Snohomish barber Bob Martin had two court hearings after a judge rejected his promissory note to cover $90,000 in fines he accumulated last year. Martin is tight-lipped about the hearings, and the court has yet to release the transcripts.
The Washington Medical Coordinator Center at Harborview, Virginia Mason Franciscan Health, and Swedish Health Services each received the Community Health Leadership Award from the Washington State Hospital Association for their 2021 Covid-19 related efforts.
Proud Boy Tusitala “Tiny” Toese is reported to be hospitalized and in “poor” condition. Toese was shot on September 4 in Olympia after the Proud Boys group he was with left an anti-mandate protest to go “hunting.”
COVID hospitalizations have increased 7% since October 22, reversing weeks of improvement. Unvaccinated people continue to hold up relief for the stressed medical system.
Malcontent News moved the Northshore School District to status red due to Bothell High School, and Lockwood Elementary reporting ten confirmed Covid-19 cases each on Friday.
Twelve states are suing the Biden Administration in an attempt to block a looming vaccination mandate.
The U.S. Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, refused to block Maine’s vaccination mandate for healthcare workers. The decision may have further strengthened Jacobson versus Massachusetts.
The Pentagon reported that 96.4% of active-duty U.S. Air Force personnel and 98% of special forces are vaccinated. For the Air Force it still leaves up to 12,000 members facing disciplinary action.
In disinformation, we take a critical look at a September 30 article entitled, Increase in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States. Daniel Horowitz has held this up as proof that vaccinations don’t work. Is it true?
The New case rate was almost unchanged from yesterday. The least vaccinated counties have 228% more new cases per 100,000 residents than the most vaccinated. San Juan County reported a 7 day moving average of 11.5, which is considered “normal.” Three of the five counties with the lowest new case rate have more than 70% of their total population fully vaccinated.
Percent of Total Population Fully Vaccinated
Total Population in Group
Average 14-Day New Case Rate
70% or above (3 counties)
2,343,250
214.3
60.00% to 69.99% (4 counties)
1,242,200
335.9 (down)
50.00% to 59.99% (14 counties)
3,172,600
389.7
40.00% to 49.99% (10 counties)
860,525
406.7
30.80% to 39.99% (8 counties)
158,300
467.8
14-Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate for Total Population, Adjusted for Population by County
Through October 28, Washington’s statewide 14-day rolling average is 335.5 Covid-19 cases per 100K – statistically unchanged from yesterday. Although new case rates are dropping in the eastern half of the state, they remain stubbornly high.
One county, Ferry, is between 800.0 and 999.9 with 859.7 new cases per 100K residents.
Four counties, Grant, Klickitat, Lincoln, and Skagit, have a new case rate between 600.0 to 799.9.
New cases by age were unchanged while the hospitalization rate declined for geriatric patients over 79 years old.
Age Group
7-Day Case Rate
7-Day Hospitalization Rate
Ages 0-11
150.8
0.5
Ages 12-19
146.4
0.8
Ages 20-34
146.4 (not a typo)
3.5
Ages 35-49
161.8
8.9
Ages 50-64
129.2
13.7
Ages 65-79
96.4
19.8
Ages 80+
90.2
35.9 (down)
7-day case rate and 7-day hospitalization rate is per 100K within the age group – the target for 7-day case rate is <25.0, but there are other factors such as vaccination rates within the age groups, how many total tests within the 7-day period, and the positivity rate within each age group
The USA Today COVID Tracker reported 31 Covid-19 related deaths in Washington state on Thursday. The Washington State Department of Health is reporting 8,628 Washingtonians have died since February 29, 2020. That is equal to every man, woman, and child in Hoquiam, Washington dying.
Governor Inslee express concern as Washington reaches a “fork in the road” with Covid-19
During a press briefing yesterday, Governor Jay Inslee (WA-D) expressed growing concern over plateauing cases and the potential for Washington state to move into a “sixth wave.”
“We still have an extremely dangerous pandemic on our hands,” Inslee told reporters, adding that the state is still seeing more than 2,000 new Covid-19 cases a day.
The plateau is concerning to public health officials because case rates and COVID hospitalization rates are still similar to last winter’s wave. Hospitals in Washington have limited capacity to care for a surge in patients over the winter if new case rates and hospitalizations don’t start to decrease again.
Inslee said the state has reached “a fork in the road.” Residents can either accept Covid-19 or continue to fight it, and the only way out is by getting vaccinated.
“Every day, I believe we should fight it,” he said.
New Covid-19 cases were declining from mid-September to mid-October, but are now stubbornly sitting at new normal that is well above what experts consider acceptable. Over the last week, COVID-related hospitalizations have increased 7%.
On October 20, Malcontent News predicted that another wave of Covid-19 will sweep across the United States starting in mid to late December and peak in February 2022.
Federal judge tosses civil rights based lawsuit attempting to block Washington state Covid-19 mandate
A federal judge in Eastern Washington on Monday denied a bid by firefighters, state troopers, and others to halt Washington’s Covid-19 vaccine mandate for state workers and emergency responders. The Associated Press reported U.S. District Court Judge Thomas Rice denied the motion.
Dozens of municipal, county, and state workers sued Governor Jay Inslee, Spokane Fire Chief Brian Schaeffer, Washington State Patrol Chief John Batiste, and others. The case was filed just days before the October 18 mandate deadline. The plaintiffs claimed their civil rights were being violated by the requirement they get vaccinated to continue in their jobs.
In his ruling, Rice wrote: “The Supreme Court has long endorsed state and local government authority to impose compulsory vaccines… Federal courts have routinely analyzed such cases using rational basis and regularly reject cases similar to this one that challenge vaccine mandates based on free exercise of religion.”
Rice was referring to the 1905 U.S. Supreme Court decision of Jacobson versus Massachusetts that decided the Tenth Amendment gave municipalities, counties, and states the power to make public health decisions that aim to protect the larger population. The decision has been challenged dozens of times in the last 116 years.
Judge Rice’s decision ended the last large-scale lawsuit attempting to block or pause the vaccine mandate. As of October 25, 94% of Washington state employees, 99.7% of Washington educators, and an estimated 97% of Washington healthcare workers, including firefighters, were fully vaccinated, completing vaccination, have an exemption review pending, or received an approved exemption with accommodation.
Following back to school guidelines by the CDC has had a positive impact in Washington
From August 1 to September 30, there have been 189 Covid-19 outbreaks in Washington schools involving 1,284 confirmed infections according to the Washington Department of Health.
State Epidemiologist Dr. Scott Lindquist, Deputy Secretary of Covid-19 Response Lacy Fehrenbach, and Acting Assistant Secretary for the DOH Michele Roberts shared the information on Wednesday during a press briefing.
Almost 88% of the confirmed Covid-19 cases involved students. Unlike other states such as in the southeast, where dozens of children were sickened in superspreader events that closed entire school districts, the average number of cases per event was five.
“That relatively small number of cases in each outbreak is an indication that schools are continuing to do a really good job on layered prevention measures and responding when they have cases and outbreaks,” Fehrenbach said.
A few districts were forced to move single schools to remote learning to manage outbreaks including in Medical Lake, Edmonds, and Eatonville.
Former naturopathic doctor convicted of selling fake Covid-19 cures
A former Port Angeles naturopathic physician who falsely claimed that two substances containing garlic extract and larch tree starch could treat and prevent Covid-19 has been found guilty of introducing misbranded drugs into interstate commerce. The conviction of Richard Marschall, 68, was first reported by the Peninsula Daily News.
The federal jury last week found that Richard Marschall, 68, misbranded the drugs and fraudulently marketed them, according to a press release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Seattle.
This is the third conviction for Marschall since 2011 for making false claims. On his Facebook page, he made claims that two supplements, allicin a garlic extract, and IAG a larch tree starch had antiviral properties that would cure Covid-19.
Both supplements are made in the United States and neither maker makes any claims that their products are antiviral. Marschall was charging $140 for the supplements plus shipping and handling. He added his own labels making false claims about the abilities of the combination.
A 60 count bottle of allicin is $21.95 and a 3.6 ounce bottle of IAG is $39.48 on Amazon with free Prime shipping. A 400 pack of ink jet-ready bottle labels is $9.99.
Washington physician assistant has November 3 medical board hearing after allegedly peddled Covid-19 disinformation
Washougal Physician Assistant Scott Miller is facing a medical board hearing on November 3 after state officials suspended his license on October 16 for allegedly creating and spreading Covid-19 disinformation.
Accusations against Miller included:
Starting a public camaign promoting ivermectin as a Covid-19 cure
Prescribing ivermectin to at least one patient without providing an adequate examination
Interfering with the care of hospitalized patients
Engaging in a hostile and threatening campaign against both hospitals and individual physicians regarding Covid-19 treatment
Lying on his licensing application and denying he was already under investigation by the state of California
Miller spoke at a Camas School Board Meeting in May of 2021 against mask mandates and promoted ivermectin as a “cure.”
“I don’t know anybody that’s died (from COVID-19),” Miller said. “I’ve treated 350 COVID patients. Do you know there’s treatment? … I treat people every day. I had 90 COVID patients come into my clinic last month.” Miller then went on to call the school board “pure evil.”
Miller runs Miller Family Pediatrics in Washougal, Washington. A GoFundMe for Miller was suspended on October 19. Organizers moved to the crowdfunding platform GiveSendGo. On October 29, $11,477 had been raised to support his defense, which is far short of the $50,000 goal set by organizers.
Washington State University infectious disease professor attempted to explain Covid-19 vaccines to Nick Rolovich
In April 2021 when officials at Washington State University learned that former football coach Nick Rolovich was falling down a disinformation hole, they arranged a meeting between Rolovich and Dr. Guy Palmer, a world-renowned WSU regents professor of pathology and infectious diseases.
According to a report by ESPN, Rolovich drove a conversation that focused on topics that were consistent with what Palmer said has been shared by the “anti-vax crowd on social media” over the past several years.
Questions included if Bill Gates was behind the vaccine or if SV40 was in the Covid-19 vaccines.
“I just tried to address those kind of more specific questions that have come up and I think many of those concerns were widely shared on social media, by individuals, and I just addressed them with the best data that I could and tried to give him clear answers,” Palmer said.
Palmer says that Rolovich’s primary concern was around side effects and he never brought up religious beliefs or questioned if fetal cells were used in the testing, development, or manufacturing of the vaccines.
Rolovich, through his lawyer, announced his plans to sue WSU after his religious exemption was declined and he was terminated on October 18. Rolovich served as head coach of the Cougars for less than two seasons with a 5 and 6 record. During his time as head coach of the UH Rainbow Warriors, they achieved a record of 28 and 27. At the time of his termination, Rolovich was the highest-paid public employee in Washington state.
Snohomish barber goes before two judges to answer questions about his anti-lockdown actions
Bob Martin because a cause celebre when he refused to close his Snohomish, Washington barbershop in 2020 when the state was under lockdown. Over the months that followed, the retired Marine Corps veteran racked up over $90,000 in fines for his continued refusal to close.
The barbershop became a rallying point for people against lockdowns and to a lesser extent, people desperate for a haircut.
“I’m not going to let the parasites in Olympia tell me that I cannot work,” Martin told KOMO News. “It’s my right to work.”
Martin insists the $90,000 in fines has been paid to the state of Washington through a promissory note. Last week a Snohomish County judge told Martin that the note does not satisfy his debt. Martin had two court hearings last week but the results of those hearings and transcripts have not been released.
Three Puget Sound area hospitals lauded by the Washington State Hospital Association for Covid-19 related efforts
Three Western Washington hospitals are receiving the Community Health Leadership Award for taking an innovative approach to addressing the pandemic in 2021 according to a report by Patch.
The Washington Medical Coordination Center at Harborview Medical Center was recognized for helping triage and placing Covid-19 patients across the state, and from across the region.
Virginia Mason Franciscan Health was lauded for its vaccination program that spanned across three counties. At its peak, the hospital system was vaccinated 3,100 people a day.
Swedish Health Services was commended for setting up 21 mobile vaccination clinics in under-served areas reaching out to rural, poor, and BIPOC communities. The hospital network partnered with the Ethiopian Community Center, and Pacific Islander Community Association.
Proud Boy shot after providing “security” at Olympia anti-vaccine mandate rally reportedly back in the hospital
Social media reports indicated Tusitala “Tiny” Toese, who was shot in the leg on September 4 shortly after providing “security” at an End the Mandate protest in Olympia, was back in the hospital and in “poor” condition.
On September 4 a group of 50 to 75 heavily armed Proud Boys roamed the streets of Olympia after leaving the End the Mandate protest to go “hunting,” as reported by independent journalists. The group assaulted several people who were not associated with any protest or counterprotest and attacked reporter Alissa Azar. Approximately 20 minutes after leaving the protest, they identified a small group of counterprotesters who were attempting to flee from the group.
Security camera video shows a man stopping, pulling out a handgun, and firing five shots. Toese was shot in the leg and required a short hospital stay in Olympia. A 36-year-old Olympia man was arrested on September 23 for the shooting and charged with first-degree assault.
Toese, who held more of an enforcer role, has been an acting regional leader for the Proud Boys since the January 6 Insurrection. Ethan Nordean of Washington is alleged to be the Proud Boy leader on January 6 after Enrique Tarrio was arrested on January 4. Nordean is currently in federal custody awaiting trial. Alan Swinney was arrested after multiple incidents in Portland, Oregon in August 2020 and was recently convicted on 11 of 12 charges, including one count of first-degree assault. Rufio Panman was also arrested for his involvement in the January 6 Insurrection and remains in federal custody.
Toese was seen at several anti-vaccination, anti-mask, and anti-mandate protests shortly after his shooting including an anti-mask protest on September 10.
No specific information on Toese’s condition was available beyond he is allegedly hospitalized and in “poor condition.” There was no information on if the hospitalization is related to the shooting or a different medical condition.
Travel Advisories
We are very encouraged by the hospital readiness data for the East Hospital Region and believe we can end the travel advisory in the next five to 12 days. For now, we’re maintaining our recreational travel advisory to the East Hospital Region, including Adams, Asotin, Ferry, Garfield, Lincoln, Pend Oreille, Spokane, Stevens, Wahkiakum, and Whitman counties. Acute care and ICU capacity remain limited.
Additionally, we are maintaining the travel advisory for the Northwest Hospital Region. The region includes Clallam, Jefferson, Kitsap, and Mason counties.
We continue to strongly advise against all nonessential travel to Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Alaska and the Idaho Panhandle are experiencing an extreme number of Covid-19 hospitalizations. Hospital resources in these regions are constrained, and you may receive inadequate care if you experience a serious medical emergency. Data out of Wyoming is encourage and we may drop our travel advisory in the next 14 to 21 days.
Thank you
Thank you to our new subscribers and those of you who have made one-time contributions. On behalf of the entire team, thank you for helping us keep the lights on!
The immune responses of children 5 through 11 were comparable to adolescents and young adults. In addition, the vaccine was found to be 90.7% effective in preventing COVID-19 in children 5 through 11. The vaccine’s safety was studied in approximately 3,100 children who received the vaccine and no serious side effects.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices will meet next week on November 2 and 3 to discuss further clinical recommendations.
“As a mother and a physician, I know that parents, caregivers, school staff, and children have been waiting for today’s authorization. Vaccinating younger children against COVID-19 will bring us closer to returning to a sense of normalcy,” said Acting FDA Commissioner Janet Woodcock, M.D. “Our comprehensive and rigorous evaluation of the data pertaining to the vaccine’s safety and effectiveness should help assure parents and guardians that this vaccine meets our high standards.”
The Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 Vaccine for children 5 through 11 is administered as a two-dose series, three weeks apart, as a 10 microgram dose. Individuals 12 years of age and older receive a 30 microgram dose. Full efficacy is reached two weeks after the final dose is administered.
Health and Human Services have purchased 28 million doses with regional distribution beginning next week.
King County, Washington is reporting over 88.1% of age eligible residents are vaccinated with at least one dose. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA has provided full approval of the Pfizer vaccine for anyone 16 and over and EUA approval for the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines.
COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.
According to the DoH COVID Dashboard, 91% of all staffed acute care beds are occupied, and 15.3% of patients have Covid-19. Statewide, hospitals have the staff to support approximately 607 additional acute care patients.
ICUs are at 88.3% of capacity statewide, with 25.0% of ICU patients fighting Covid-19 – an estimated 296 patients with 49.0% on ventilators. The state has the staff to support approximately 140 additional ICU patients.
On Thursday, the 7-day rolling average hospital admission rate for new COVID patients is 102. The Department of Health reported 1,096 Covid-19 patients statewide on October 28, with 144 requiring ventilators.
After declining for weeks Covid-19 hospitalizations increased 7% over the last 7 days. We analyzed the latest Covid-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths by Vaccination Status report by the DOH to determine if the growing hospitalization numbers are being driven by breakthrough cases.
From September 15 to October 12, unvaccinated individuals from 12 to 34 were 16 times more likely to be hospitalized, 35 to 64 were 18 times more likely, and 65 and over were 9 times more likely. The total number of vaccinated individuals. Statewide since vaccines have become available, 12.1% of hospitalizations have been breakthrough cases.
According to King County Health over the last 30 days, 3,248 unvaccinated people have been hospitalized with Covid-19, compared to 378 fully vaccinated individuals. The 10% rate aligns closely with the broader state average. No vaccine is 100% effective. Even if we make the bad assumption, statewide hospitalizations would still be close to 1,000. The growing hospitalization numbers continue to be fueled by the unvaccinated.
Hospital readiness gave back some improvements from earlier this week with the East Hospital Region going status red across all four metrics again.
Hospital status by region – ICU Occupancy should be below 80%, ICU COVID Patients should be below 20%, Acute Care Occupancy should be below 80%, and Acute Care COVID Patients should be below 10%
– Blackwell Elementary (4) – Carson Elementary (6) – Clara Barton (4) – Einstein (3) – Eastlake High (11) – Ella Baker (8) – Finn Hill Middle School (6 + 1 see notes) – ICS (4) – Juanita Elementary (3) – Kamiakin Middle School (20) – Kirk Elementary (2) – Lakeview Elementary (3) – Lake Washington High School (27) – Muir Elementary (1) – Redmond Elementary (9) – Redmond Middle School (64) – Redmond High School (46) – Timberline Middle School (45**) – Twain Elementary (27)
None
Northshore
RED
– Arrowhead Elementary (5) – Canyon Creek Elementary (5) – Canyon Park Middle School (2) – Crystal Springs Elementary (5) – East Ridge Elementary (7) – Fernwood Elementary (3) – Frank Love Elementary (24) – Hollywood Hills Elementary (2) – Inglemoor High School (13) – Kenmore Elementary (6) – Kenmore Middle School (17) – Kokanee Elementary (6) – Leota Middle School (1) – Maywood Hills Elementary (3) – Morelands Elementary (2) – North Creek High School (9**) – Northshore Middle School (16) – Ruby Bridge Elementary (68) – Shelton View Elementary (4) – Skyview Middle School (9) – Timbercrest Middle School (9) – Wellington Elementary (14**) – Westhill Elementary (11) – Woodin Elementary (50**) – Woodinville High School (7) – Woodmoor Elementary (5)
– Bothell High School (25**) – Lockwood Elementary (20**)
Local Districts Scorecard – * indicates positive cases only ** indicates 5 or more confirmed positive cases
We redefined the school district statuses. Information for classroom and building closures has been a challenge to obtain, both for closures and reopening. We are adopting moving any school with more than ten active COVID cases reported into the red, and we’ve adjusted the third column to reflect this change.
The Northshore School District moved to red status with two facilities reporting ten confirmed Covid-19 cases each today. Bothell High School and Lockwood Elementary doubled the number of cases this week. There are four additional schools that have five to nine confirmed COVID cases.
We received a parent confirmed report of an additional Covid-19 case at Finn Hill Middle School. The Lake Washington School District only updates data. We rely on confirmed parental reports to provide additional details.
We continued to encourage parents to request daily updates from the Lake Washington School District. We would also encourage parents to request the Bellevue School District include data on close contacts. These two changes would bring the three school districts we track into alignment.
Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville
UW Medicine opens up Covid-19 vaccine waitlist for children 5 to 11 years old
With the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granting emergency use authorization to the Pfizer vaccine for children 5 to 11 years old, UW Medicine has opened up a waitlist. Although the use of the vaccine has been authorized, federal supply rules require the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) to formally recommend the protocol.
To join the vaccine waitlist, parents or guardians can call 844-520-8700. Individuals who register will receive a text or phone call when it is time to schedule an appointment. Scheduling is done online through a single-use registration link. UW Medicine is not accepting walk-in appointments for vaccination.
A CDC panel is meeting on November 2 and 3. A formal recommendation to vaccinate children from 5 to 11 is widely expected next week and the Seattle Times reported Central Puget Sound is receiving an initial shipment of 316,000 doses.
Kirkland Health Fair and Community Vaccination Event on November 6
The Kirkland Health Fair and Community Vaccination Event will be held on Saturday, November 6, from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m at Juanita High School. Hosted by the City of Kirkland in partnership with Public Health – Seattle and King County, the event will provide Covid-19 vaccination, information, education, and more.
At this time we do not know if vaccination for 5 to 11-year-olds will be available.
Save the date! The Kirkland Health Fair and Community Vaccination Event takes place 10 am – 2 pm, Sat 11/6 at Juanita High School. We are partnering with @KCPubHealth to provide COVID-19 vaccinations, vaccine info & education, & much more! More information to come. pic.twitter.com/JJcFnqggrJ
Johns Hopkins University Cumulative Case Tracker reports 76,957 new cases and 2,141 deaths nationwide on Thursday.
12 states sue Biden administration over Covid-19 vaccine rule
Eleven states filed lawsuits Friday to stop President Joe Biden’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate for federal contractors, arguing that the requirement violates federal law.
Attorneys general from Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming signed on to the lawsuit, which was filed in a federal district court in Missouri.
The states asked a federal judge to block Biden’s requirement that all employees of federal contractors be vaccinated against the coronavirus, arguing that the mandate violates federal procurement law and is an overreach of federal power.
“If the federal government attempts to unconstitutionally exert its will and force federal contractors to mandate vaccinations, the workforce and businesses could be decimated, further exacerbating the supply chain and workforce crises,” Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, a Republican, said in a statement. “The federal government should not be mandating vaccinations, and that’s why we filed suit today – to halt this illegal, unconstitutional action.”
That lawsuit, along with one filed Friday by Texas and Thursday by Florida, brings to 12 the number of states challenging the Biden administration mandate in three federal courts.
Alaska, Montana, and Wyoming currently have hospitals operating at crisis standards of care due to a surge in COVID cases.
Supreme Court refuses to block Maine’s Covid-19 vaccine mandate
The U.S. Supreme Court has rejected an emergency appeal from Maine health care workers to halt a COVID-19 vaccine mandate that took effect Friday.
Health care workers at hospitals and nursing homes throughout the state risk losing their jobs if they are not vaccinated and religious exemptions are not being offered.
According to Fox News, three justices – Neil Gorsuch, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel Alito – signed on to a dissent written by Gorsuch, who suggested they would have adhered to the request from Maine health care workers.
“This case presents an important constitutional question, a serious error, and an irreparable injury,” Gorsuch wrote. “Where many other States have adopted religious exemptions, Maine has charted a different course. There, healthcare workers who have served on the front line of a pandemic for the last 18 months are now being fired and their practices shuttered. All for adhering to their constitutionally protected religious beliefs.”
The case could be significant for future challenges to municipal, county, state, and private employer public health-related mandate challenges. In 2021, no case brought before the Supreme Court has given relief to plaintiffs looking to modify or block vaccine mandates. The 6 to 3 decision could have closed the door for those seeking public health exemptions based on religious grounds.
96.4% of active duty US Air Force personnel are vaccinated
The U.S. Air Force is reporting up to 12,000 personnel could be facing disciplinary action for refusing to get vaccinated for Covid-19. The Air Force is the first military branch to approach a vaccine mandate deadline.
Air Force officials would not provide any information on the status of the estimated 12,000 hold-outs. When compared to other mandates across the United States, a 96.4% vaccination rate is high before factoring in medical or religious exemption requests and previously planned retirements.
According to the Pentagon, only one active-duty service member has received an exemption.
Different military branches have different vaccination deadlines ranging from the U.S. Air Force November 1 deadline to a June 30, 2022 deadline for the National Guard.
So far In 2021, 71 military personnel have died from Covid-19 – none were fully vaccinated.
SOCOM’s commander, Army Gen. Richard D. Clarke, shared the statistic during the annual Military Reporters and Editors Conference here and said that percentage includes special operators like SEALS and Green Berets, but also administrative and other troops that make up the joint force of roughly 70,000.
State Updates
Alaska
Multiple hospitals operate under crisis standards of care across Alaska with 232 Covid-19 patients hospitalized and a sky-high new case rate. Health officials are reporting 629 new COVID cases per 100,000 residents and a test positivity rate of 9.2%. Over 60% of new cases are among people under 40 years old. Although the transmission rate has plateaued, it has remained unchanged for more than six weeks as COVID rages through unvaccinated communities.
Earlier in the month, a series of contentious meetings at Anchorage City Hall debating a mask mandate for Alaska’s large city turned into a super spreader event. Several members of Mayor Dave Bronson’s administration became sick with Covid-19, including some breakthrough cases. William Topel, a well-known anti-vaccination activist was among the hundreds of mostly unmasked people in the packed room.
Topel, 68, had multiple health issues became ill with Covid-19 shortly after the meeting, and quickly declined in health. He was hospitalized in Anchorage and died of COVID-related illness on October 13. His supporters remained defiant at his funeral on October 25, according to Alaska Public Media.
“God’s going to use this as a fulcrum to propel us into victory,” friend and fellow activist Dustin Darden told the crowd after Topel’s burial. “We’re going to take every square inch of Anchorage, everything that Bill stood for every time he was out there, it’s just been amplified 1,000 times.”
After more than a week of theatrics that included Mayor Bronson supporting the use of Nazi symbols, and seven meetings that frequently devolved into screaming matches, the Anchorage Assembly voted to issue an emergency mask mandate. On October 13, the same day Topel died, Bronson vetoed the decision. A day later, the Assembly overrode the veto by vote, requiring masks on October 14.
On October 27, the Anchorage Assembly meeting scheduled to discuss routine city business devolved into an anti-mask debate again.
On Saturday, anti-vaccination activists are holding the “Alaska Early Treatment Summit” that includes Robert W. Malone, Ophthalmologist Richard Urso MD, and Ryan Cole, MD, head of Ada County Health in Idaho and currently under investigation by the state medical board.
Malone claims he had Covid-19 in February 2020 and suffers from long hauler syndrome. He states he got the Moderna vaccine in hopes it would “cure” his symptoms, but believes the vaccination made it worse.
Malone is also the originator of the disinformation claim that people who receive the Covid-19 vaccine will die within six months to three years. The first Phase 1 trials started in April 2020 and in the United States, four vaccine-related deaths have been reported due to an extremely rare but dangerous condition called VITT.
Idaho
Idaho is facing good news, bad news situations as new case rates and hospitalizations plateau and fall respectively, while Covid-19 continues to rage in Northern Idaho and the Panhandle. The apocalyptic forecasts of 30,000 new cases a week (that Malcontent News reported was likely too grim) have not materialized, however, new cases are still running between 8,000 and 10,000 a week. Test positivity dropped to 11.5% but remains well above the optimal rate of 3% to 5% which would indicate adequate testing.
The Panhandle District accounts for 22% of Idaho’s new cases and Kootenai Health in Coeur d’Alene has been operating in crisis standards of care for almost two months. State officials don’t see the hospital situation improving much with concerns over the approaching flu season and continued spread in the unvaccinated population.
Since Covid-19 first arrived in the Gem State, there have been 290,872 confirmed cases – 4.5% vaccination breakthroughs. The state has recorded 3,543 Covid-19 related deaths.
Dr. Kathryn Turner, the deputy state epidemiologist, said North Idahoans are also not very helpful when it comes to contact tracing for the coronavirus.
“People are not as cooperative as in other parts of the state,” Turner said.
Idaho does not provide daily hospitalization data. The most recent report stated 570 were hospitalized with Covid-19, 163 in the ICU, with more than half on ventilators. Under normal conditions, Idaho has 170 staffed ICU beds.
Only two “large” hospitals, Community Medical Center and Northern Montana Hospital had normal occupancy rates. The largest hospital, Billings Clinic, was caring for 277 patients, including 76 people infected with Covid-19.
To date, 5% of confirmed COVID cases require hospitalization. Currently, 1% of the entire Montana population is infected with Covid-19 every 14 days.
“It has been an exceptionally challenging week for us here, with record numbers of hospitalizations and very, very sick and very, very acutely ill patients hospitalized due to COVID,” said Katie Gallagher, Covid-19 public information officer for St. Peter’s Hospital.
St. Peter’s reports that, in October, 26 patients died due to complications from COVID – including five on a single day, the highest one-day total they’ve recorded. Gallagher said that was compared to nine COVID-related deaths in September.
More patients are also being hospitalized with COVID-related illnesses according to a report by KTVH. Gallagher says they have been averaging more than 30 over recent weeks, with the highest number being 44 – almost half of the available inpatient beds.
On Friday the Montana Nurses Association filed a motion to join a lawsuit by a coalition of medical providers and patients that seeks to invalidate Montana law that bars medical organizations from requiring employees to be vaccinated, saying it violates federal law and the U.S. and Montana constitution.
According to KTVQ, the original suit was filed in September in U.S. District Court in Missoula with the Montana Medical Association as the lead plaintiff. It challenges parts of HB 702 – passed by Republican majorities at the 2021 Legislature – saying it illegally prevents physicians, their offices, and hospitals from providing a safe environment for patients.
The nurses’ suit comes as Montana faces the worst rates for hospitalizations and death from COVID-19 in the United States, according to data from the Mayo Clinic.
New York
Six FDNY members of Ladder 113 have been suspended for allegedly driving their truck to a state senator’s New York City office and threatening his staff over the vaccine mandate for city workers according to a report by New York NBC 4.
The on-duty firefighters drove an in-service ladder truck to state Senator Zellnor Myrie’s office in Brooklyn on Friday and questioned staff as to where the politician lives, a department spokesperson confirmed. The crew is accused of telling his staffers they would have “blood on their hands” Monday when unvaccinated workers must go on unpaid leave.
The group of firefighters also allegedly told the staff that if a fire was reported at Myrie’s home they would not respond.
Commissioner Daniel Nigro says, “this is a highly inappropriate act by on duty members of this Department who should only be concerned with responding to emergencies and helping New Yorkers and not harassing an elected official and his staff."
New York City’s vaccine mandate deadline for municipal workers which includes fire, police, is November 1. Compared to other cities such as Seattle and San Francisco as well as the state of Hawaii, vaccination rates are alarming low.
As of 8 p.m. Thursday, 33,400 city workers remained unvaccinated. The city said it would provide updated vaccine rates on Saturday.
The fire department said it was prepared to close up to 20% of its fire companies and have 20% fewer ambulances in service while changing schedules, canceling vacations, and turning to outside EMS providers to make up for expected staffing shortages.
Wyoming
Data from Wyoming is more encouraging as new cases continue to drop while hospitalizations remain very high. Officials reported 193 hospitalized statewide while the number of new cases is averaging 557 per day. Wyoming has lost 178 residents to Covid-19 in October and crossed the 1,000 death threshold this month. Over 15% of COVID-related deaths occurred in the last 28 days. On October 21, Wyoming set a new hospitalization record peaking at 249 patients.
Elective surgeries have been delayed for weeks, creating additional health problems, according to a story by Wyoming Public Media. Jeffrey Chapman is the chief medical officer at Cheyenne Regional Medical Center – one of the many Wyoming hospitals that have had to limit what procedures they can perform.
“For almost five weeks we’ve only been doing urgent and emergent cases,” he said.
From Sheridan to Casper to Rock Springs, hospitals are monitoring their capacity on a day-to-day basis. In Campbell County, the hospital system canceled all elective surgeries earlier this week. And at Cheyenne Regional, Chapman said they have to make decisions about which surgeries can wait and which cannot.
The anti-vaccination community has seized upon the Harvard study as proof that vaccines are ineffective, and the momentum has been further fueled by Daniel Horowitz of The Blaze. So who is right?
First, we should look to the main author of the paper S.V. Subramanian, a Harvard professor of population health and geography who is saying the anti-vaccination community has it all wrong.
“That conclusion is misleading and inaccurate,” Subramanian wrote in an email to Ali Breland, a journalist. “This paper supports vaccination as an important strategy for reducing infection and transmission, along with hand-washing, mask-wearing, and physical distancing.”
Second and more important, there are serious data issues, inaccuracies, assumptions, and questions about the co-author of the paper.
The data analysis starts at January 1, before anyone was fully vaccinated. Additionally vaccination programs targeted the elderly and those most likely to get severe Covid-19, and the analysis did not take into account the base rate. The data only considered hospitalization data through May 2021, just weeks after multiple states permitted vaccination to all age groups over 16.
The second author of the study is a high school student in Canada
Errors within the paper aside, Subramanian has stated the paper is supportive of vaccination as part of a holistic approach to defeating the pandemic.
Journalists, activists, and researchers defending the First Amendment
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