The United States is Abandoning Europe and with it, Ukraine

Signals from Russian and U.S. officials after the first round of meetings to discuss a “peace deal” in the Russia-Ukraine War indicate that the Trump administration is setting conditions to lift some or all sanctions and end all aid to Kyiv.

Our team agrees with the assessment by four “Western intelligence officials and two “U.S. Congressional officials” that Russia is negotiating in bad faith and has no interest in ending its war of aggression against Ukraine.

Responding to an inquiry by U.S. news agency NBC News, Brian Hughes, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said, “President Trump’s leadership has created the first opening for talks in years, and he did this after only four weeks in office. The Trump Administration will continue to pursue a deal that advances American interests and brings this conflict to a permanent resolution.”

Fact Check – The Truth Matters

That statement is, at best, a half-truth. In March 2022, there was the Istanbul Communique. In May 2022, then-Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu (who has since been removed from his position), calling for a ceasefire.

In December 2022, then-Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called for a February 2023 peace summit mediated by U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, with the requirement that Russia answer to the International Criminal Court. The Kremlin rejected the offer, once again demanding sovereignty over the illegally annexed Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

In June 2023, a multinational peace delegation from Africa visited Kyiv and Moscow, meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and autocrat Vladimir Putin. During the 17 June visit to Moscow, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa told Putin the war must end. Moscow rejected the African delegation’s peace plan.

In November 2023, President Zelenskyy rejected negotiating with Russia, declaring Moscow was not interested in good-faith discussions. A month later, autocrat Putin rejected talks, saying, “There will only be peace in Ukraine when we achieve our aims…denazification, demilitarization, and its neutral status.”

Over 100 nations, territories, and organizations attended the Ukraine Peace Summit in June 2024. While Russia was not invited, Moscow declared that even if they were, they would not participate.

Russia Isn’t Negotiating in Good Faith

Moments after the first meeting ended, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov openly demonstrated that Moscow has no interest in good-faith negotiations. Speaking with reporters, he said, “The U.S. proposed a moratorium on attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during negotiations. We explained that it has never endangered civilian energy supply systems.”

On the same day Lavrov made the claim, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported, “Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups have damaged military airfield and energy infrastructure facilities in Ukraine [emphasis – Ed.], storage and launch sites for unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and equipment in 144 areas.”

Despite the obvious deception, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that America needs to “take advantage of the incredible opportunity to partner with the Russians geopolitically, on issues of common interest and economically.” Rubio went further, declaring the West would “have to cancel sanctions” if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could be established.

After both parties held their respective press conferences, President Donald Trump went on a tirade on his Truth Social social media network and a press conference at Mar-a-Lago. The president falsely claimed that Ukraine has received $350 billion in aid from the U.S. compared to $100 billion from Europe, suggesting Zelenskyy is an illegitimate president with only 4% support and that he is “a completely incompetent president, makes absurd statements, and his leadership has allowed the war to continue.”

Fact Check – The Truth Matters

Donald Trump started his first term as President in January 2017. Eight months later, the U.N. Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner reported that fighting never stopped in Ukraine. “August 2017 bucked the trend of the past three years of the conflict in eastern Ukraine with a decrease in the number of civilian casualties, according to a report by the UN Human Rights Office published today. The ‘harvest ceasefire,’ which began at the end of June, may have contributed to this. However, the ceasefire never fully took hold, with hostilities suddenly flaring and then easing.”

When Zelenskyy was elected president on 19 April 2019, fighting between Ukraine and Russian troops backed by the 1st and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic was happening every day along a 400-kilometer contact line. In 2021, the United Nations Human Rights Commission reported hundreds of casualties from 2018 to 2020. The lowest number of war casualties recorded in Ukraine since 2014 was in 2021, during the first year of the Biden Administration.

Further, on 25 November 2018, the Federal Security Service of Russia (FSB) fired on three Ukrianian Navy vessels transiting the Kerch Strait to the Sea of Azov, capturing three ships and the crews in international waters. The first Trump administration went beyond acknowledging the incident, with the Treasury Department sanctioning the Russians involved in the incident on 19 March 2019.

“Five years after its invasion of Ukraine…Russia continues to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity while failing to implement its obligations under the Minsk agreements. On November 25, 2018, Russian authorities opened fire on and rammed three Ukrainian ships off the coast of Crimea, seizing the ships and capturing 24 Ukrainian crew members, who remain illegally detained in Russia.”

Even Russian Bankers See No Economic Upside from the Ongoing Talks

On Tuesday, Dmitry Pyanov, First Deputy Chairman of VTB Bank Management, told reporters, “All the statements that Visa, Mastercard, Bershka, Zara, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s – may return to the Russian market – are increasingly a reflection of what is missing from the speakers – those who publicly predict the imminent return of certain companies and brands – rather than reality. Now is the very beginning stage – only bilateral negotiations without the involvement of other parties. Months, if not quarters, will pass before the agreements crystallize.”

Additionally, Western companies have lost billions since February 2022, when Moscow seized their assets, increased taxes, and the courts issued ridiculously large fines. Many corporations will be reluctant to reinvest in the Russian economy immediately. Further, Moscow has hammered the message to the Russian people that trade with the West and the United States is not required, and many internal brands have been established.

Multiple reports indicated that Russia was pushing for the lifting of energy sanctions and was willing to open Arctic regions to oil exploration by U.S. companies. Just like in Trump’s first term, he still believes that oil at $45 a barrel is possible and sustainable.

Fact Check – The Truth Matters

The idea that we’re entering a new era of “drill, baby, drill” is false. Due to global overproduction, the world is facing an oil glut. In 2017, as part of his promise that his tax reform package would result in more revenue, not less, President Trump directed the Department of Interior to take bids for oil drilling leases in the North Slope region of Alaska. The last day for new leases was 6 January 2025, and not a single oil producer submitted a bid.

According to data published by the Energy Information Administration through November 2024, the U.S. is the largest oil-producing nation on the planet. In 2023, the most recent year data is available. The U.S. produced 22% of the world’s crude oil while consuming 20%. In the fall of 2018, the last time oil prices crashed because of market conditions versus the COVID-19 pandemic, hundreds of U.S. oil producers went bankrupt because, at $50 a barrel, fracking operations are unprofitable.

If U.S. producers are uninterested in signing leases in Alaska’s North Slope under the Trump and Biden administrations, it seems even more unlikely that they’ll rush back to Russia’s oil fields.

Sound and Fury with no Tangible Results

The only concrete outcome, beyond millions of social media views and clicks, was Lavrov’s claim that Russia and the U.S. agreed to “ensure the appointment of ambassadors of Russia to the United States and the United States to Russia as soon as possible.” The U.S. Ambassador to Russia is still Lynne Tracy, while autocrat Putin relieved the Russian Ambassador to the U.S., Anatoly Antonov, in October 2024 without naming a successor.

As the world reacted to the fallout from Riyadh, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wanted Zelenskyy to attend yesterday’s negotiations. However, the American and Russian delegations rejected the idea. An unnamed source in the Saudi government claimed that bin Salman would brief Zelenskyy on the discussions.

U.S. news agency Fox News reporter Jacqui Heinrich shared Ukraine’s assessment that Putin’s medium-term plan is to undermine Zelenskyy’s credibility inside and outside of Ukraine and force premature elections to install a puppet government. “Multiple foreign diplomatic sources provided this readout from the Ukrainian side: ‘Putin assesses the probability of electing a puppet president as quite high and is also convinced that any candidate other than the current President of Ukraine will be more flexible and ready for negotiations and concessions. In turn, D. Trump is ready to accept any election result, including the possibility of [the] election of a pro-Russian puppet…Trump and…Putin consider the chances of the current President of Ukraine being re-elected as low.’”

All of yesterday’s theatrics were probably moot, as the Kremlin declared again that it opposes “any peacekeeping force” from NATO Alliance countries in Ukraine. This has been, or way, a key condition in Trump’s “peace plan.”

The Rift Between the U.S. and Europe Becoming Irreparable

Then, it got worse. On Wednesday morning, Trump launched a series of attacks on his personal social media platform, Truth Social. He repeated the false claim that the U.S. has spent “$350 billion dollars to go into a war that couldn’t be won” and that the U.S. has “spent $200 billion dollars more than Europe.” He made a half-truth statement, claiming that “Zelenskyy admits that half of that money we sent him is ‘missing.’” He then called the Ukrianian a leader, a “dictator” while praising his own efforts to “end…the war with Russia.”

Fact Check – The Truth Matters

Speaking with U.S. news agency Newsmax on 6 February, Trump’s special envoy to Russia and Ukraine, Lieutenant General (retired) Keith Kellogg, said that the story that $174 billion in U.S. aid has been sent to Ukraine is “a myth.” Kellogg accurately stated that only $65.9 billion in military aid had been sent to Ukraine, of which $51.2 billion was spent by the U.S. defense industry to replenish America’s stockpiles. “We have a pretty good idea where the money is going,” Kellogg added, accurately stating that there are inspector generals on the ground in Ukraine “to track that money.”

A 15 November 2023 report by then Congressional Foreign Affairs Committee Co-chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX), Co-chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL), and Co-chairman Mike Turner (R-OH) wrote that oversight of aid to Ukraine was a priority of Republican leadership and no malfeasance had been found.

“To date, the Inspectors General of DoD [Department of Defense], State, and USAID have not identified any significant diversion, theft, or misuse of U.S. assistance to Ukraine. There are 96 ongoing or planned audits and reports by the IGs [Inspector Generals] of more than 20 different agencies, as well as the Government Accountability Office (GAO), to monitor, audit, and evaluate activities related to the Ukraine response. Thirty-nine have been completed.”

The report also concluded that Europe was providing more in military and humanitarian aid while “purchasing U.S. systems to replace them, providing an opportunity for the U.S. defense industry and American workers.”

Since that report was published, Congress approved another $61 billion of aid to Ukraine in April 2024. Between $3 and $5 billion of USAID funds have been frozen, and $3.8 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority went unused. Congress has not approved any additional funds for Ukraine since the FY2024 budget was passed last year.

Additionally, while the Trump administration has focused on only European aid, as of December 2024, only 42.7% of all delivered aid, both military and humanitarian, has come from the United States.

Both claims that Zelenskyy is a dictator with 4% support are untrue. The Ukrainian Constitution, ratified in 1996, forbids holding elections during martial law. Additionally, if martial law was lifted, the constitution bars continued military mobilization.

The new demand by Vice President J.D. Vance that for continued support, Ukraine must hold elections goes against the nation’s constitution and plays into Russia’s hands. If Ukraine holds elections but not in the occupied territories, it becomes a defacto admission of Russian control of occupied Ukraine. If elections are held in the occupied territories, they won’t be free and fair. The most recent polls from Ukraine show that Zelenskyy has between 52% and 57% support, which aligns with wartime U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944.

Assessment

Almost three years ago, we warned that Ukraine’s allies must provide support not for “as long as it takes” but as fast as possible to restore the 1991 borders. Our warning was stark and now appears prophetic. Russia can be defeated in Kyiv today or Berlin in five years. As long as sanctions against Russia are not lifted, we maintain that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are well equipped through the rest of 2025.

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As far back as 2011, Autocrat Putin has made it clear that his maximalist goal is the restoration of the Russian Imperial Empire’s borders. The Kremlin needs Ukraine’s population, defense production, and resources to institute the second phase of its plan: the invasions of Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Given the current political climate in Europe, it is unclear whether the NATO Alliance will respond to an Article V request from the three Baltic nations.

And after all of the positioning and statements from Russian and U.S. leaders, the most coherent assessment came from Zelenskyy, 3,275 kilometers away in Ankara.

“It seems clear to me that neither side will win this war with weapons on the battlefield. Russia wanted that but couldn’t achieve it, and no one believed in Ukraine, but it has proved itself and defended its independence. It hasn’t been easy, and we have paid a high price in the lives of our people and our soldiers. This means that a transition to diplomacy must happen, but it must lead to a just peace.”

There is always the possibility that on Thursday, President Trump will wake up in the morning, be furious with Putin, and vow to provide nuclear weapons to Ukraine, to change his mind 48 hours later. The one constant with the American leader is his complete unpredictability.