Russian Forces Make Small Gains – July 13, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,057 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – Pro-Russian social media accounts shared a video of a TOS-1 thermobaric rocket attack against Ukrainian positions in Zolotarivka, which is in Luhansk. Based on the current combat video by Russian sources, the settlement of Zolotarivka is contested.

Ukraine hit a large ammunition depot in Luhansk city using the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). There was a major fire and multiple secondary explosions, including rockets. Pro-Russian unaffiliated journalist Starshe Eddy wrote, “Judging by the distant peals of explosions, something did fly to Lugansk. At first, the work of the air defense was…audible. Now the [booms] of detonation,” indicating that Russian air defense failed to intercept the rockets.

Northeast Donetsk – The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces captured the settlement of Hryhorivka. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not mention the town in their report. Neither did Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor. The advance on Hryhorivka would indicate that Bilohorivka [Luhansk] was captured.

Additionally, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported air strikes against Ukrainian positions in Serebryanka, west of Hryhorivka.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Sprine and Ivano-Daryivka with air support from the Russian air force. The advance was unsuccessful, and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the retreat was “chaotic.”

Bakhmut – Russian forces launched a massive Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and artillery attack on Bakhmut, beginning to systematically destroy the infrastructure in the city. There were unconfirmed reports of fighting near Soledar in the settlements of Nova Kamyanka and Stryapivka.

The death toll from the Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) strike on Chasiv Yar has climbed to 45. Nine people have been found alive in the rubble.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions in Vershyna and Novoluhanske, but there wasn’t ground fighting.

Slovyansk – Kramatrosk – Russian forces shelled Pryshyb, Mayaky, Kryva Luka, and Raihorodok, and are likely setting conditions for a future offensive on the cities turned fortresses.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – An ammunition depot in Petrovskyi District of Donetsk at the Donetsk Transport Equipment Plant was hit by artillery. There were multiple secondary explosions as black smoke rose across the city.

RIA-Melitopol reported explosions and gunfire at a new Russian base in Myrne, Zaporizhia, north of the city of Melitopol. Ukrainian partisans reported that Russian forces moved the surviving equipment to the region after the airbase at Melitopol was destroyed by HIMARS rockets last week.

Otherwise, fighting was limited to artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Kherson – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control or reports of significant fighting.

South Operational Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported an artillery strike destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Charivne. The settlement is on the Nova Kakhovka-Davydiv Brid T-2207 Highway GLOC.

Mykolaiv – Russian forces used S-300 antiaircraft missiles in the July 11 missile strike on Mykolaiv. Over 20 missiles struck the city, wounding 12. The use of antiaircraft missiles in a ground-to-ground role indicates that Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) into Kherson could be compromised. Alternatively, Russia may be unable to get the electronic parts required to build new S-300 missiles capable of providing antiaircraft capabilities.

Kharkiv – Northeast of Kharkiv, fighting was limited to Dementiivka, north of Kharkiv city. There was no change in territorial control.

Russian forces hit the Industrial District of Kharkiv city with rockets fired from MLRS, injuring four people.

Missiles hit the industrial cities of Khrestyshche and Kostyantynivka. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims they destroyed a warehouse full of recently delivered M777A2 155mm howitzers.

Izyum – Russian forces did not attempt offensive operations and relied on artillery, MLRS, and tank fire. The settlements of Dibrovne, Mazanivka, Barvinkove, Nikopol, Husarivka, Adamivka, Velyka Komyshuvakha, and Nova Dmytrivka were struck.

For the second day in a row, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that Ukrainian positions in Sulihivka were attacked. The settlement is believed to be under Russian control but is located on the line of conflict, which is very porous in this region. A video from July 9 shows Russian artillery and troops destroying four tanks and ground fighting east of Sulihivka.

Odesa – Black Sea – Ukraine reopened the Danube-Black Sea Canal and did an emergency restoration to an unused Soviet-era river port to restart grain exports. The first 16 cargo ships have made their way into the canal, with up to 90 additional bulk carriers waiting their turn in the Black Sea. The port at Sulin can only accommodate four ships a day, with officials working to double the capacity.

Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Yuriy Vaskov said that by mid-August, the port would be capable of exporting 500,000 tons of grain a month.

Beyond Ukraine – Self-proclaimed Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko fired Major General Alexander Shkirenko. He was the Head of the Main Organizational and Mobilization Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus. No reason was given for his termination, nor was a replacement officer announced.

Daily Assessment

1. The operational pause continues and likely will for weeks. Russia continues to suffer a serious disadvantage in the number of trained light infantry troops available.
2. Russian artillery methodically targets potential routes to advance on Bakhmut and Slovyansk but still lacks the combat power to launch significant operations.
3. We maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for major fighting in northeastern Donetsk.
4. We maintain that the risk of Belarus entering the war is extremely low.

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