Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 10, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,053 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

There was no change in territorial control across Ukraine, with fighting limited to reconnaissance, spoiling attacks, and ad hoc offensives with groups of soldiers from squad to company-sized.

Lysychansk – Severodonetsk – Fighting continued on the Luhansk-Donetsk oblast border. However, the operational tempo slowed significantly. Fighting for control of Bilohorivka continued, with Russian forces making incremental gains. Russian forces also attempted to advance on Hryhorivka but were unsuccessful.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces tried to advance into Zolotarivka and Verkhnokamyanske from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and were unsuccessful. Pro-Russian social media account Rybar reported, “The Russian Federation Armed Forces are fighting on the eastern outskirts of Verkhnokamyanske,” aligning with the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and local reports.

There was no additional noteworthy combat activity south of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery to the Svitlodarsk bulge.

Russian forces fired artillery and rockets at Berestove, Ivano-Darivka, Novoselivka Verknokamianske, Siversk, Bilohorivka [Donetsk], Soledar, Fedorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Kurdiumivka. The Russian air force fired unguided rockets at the settlement of Spirne.

Ukrainian forces shelled Russian-occupied Yampil, Dibrova, Kreminna, Pshenychne, Vovchoyarivka, Mykolaivka, Oleksandropillia, and Komyshuvakha.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – There were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) attacked Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka and Marinka. Neither attack was successful.

NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) rockets hit eleven high-value targets in the Donetsk region overnight. An ammunition depot in Russia-controlled Chystiakove, 75 kilometers behind the known line of conflict, was destroyed.

Ukrainian forces also destroyed an ammunition depot in Shakhtarsk, 65 kilometers behind the known line of conflict. There are massive secondary explosions, including surface-to-air missiles, and local officials are evacuating the city.

An ammunition depot in Russian-controlled Zuhres, east of Donetsk, was also destroyed in a rocket attack.

An ammunition depot in Ilovaisk, southeast of Donetsk, was also destroyed. There was a massive explosion after four rockets hit the ammunition stockpile. The blast shattered windows up to 7 kilometers away.

A Russian ammunition depot was also destroyed at the Kalinin Mine in Horlivka. The Kalinin Mine is the largest coal mine in Ukraine.

NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) indicated the Kirovs’kyi fuel depot, hit by artillery or HIMARS-delivered rockets three days ago, continued to burn.

In Mariupol, at least three Russian Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) engineers were killed in the area of the Azovstal Metallurgical Plant. Efforts to demine Azovstal and the Illich Iron and Steelworks caused an accident setting off a large explosion and secondary fires from ammunition cooking off.

Adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Anton Gerashchenko, reported that the Almaz-Antey Company in Russia had drawn the ire of the Russian Ministry of Defense over the inability of Russian S-400 air defense systems to intercept High Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems munitions. It is reported that the head of the company, former Russian prime minister Mykhailo Fradkov, assured the Kremlin the S-400 antiaircraft system would be capable of intercepting rockets launched from the NATO M-142 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS). We cannot verify the report’s veracity, but we can verify that the Pantsir-1, S-300, and S-400 air defense systems have been very ineffective against the HIMARS launched rockets.

Kherson – Russian forces sent squad-sized reconnaissance units toward Olhyne and Knyazivka. Both groups were discovered and eliminated. Russian forces continue to struggle to hold defensive positions across Kherson with the volume of artillery, rocket, and missile strikes slowing.

Russian forces fired six S-300 surface-to-air antiaircraft missiles, using them in a surface-to-surface capacity. The S300 has limited capabilities as a surface-to-surface weapon, but the fragmentation warhead and inertial guidance systems are not suited for this role.

Dnipropetrovsk – Three missiles struck the settlement of Radushne.

Kharkiv – Northwest and north of Kharkiv, Russian forces conducted reconnaissance in force and spoiling attacks on Dementiivka and Male Vesele. Neither attack was successful. There were reports of Ukrainian forces advancing toward the Russian stronghold of Kozacha Lopan. We cannot confirm the veracity of the report.

Izyum – Russian forces made piecemeal attacks on the settlements of Krasnopillia and Dolyna. Neither attack was successful. Russian forces shelled Chepil, Bohorodychne, Dibrovne, Adamivka, and Slovyansk.

Sumy – Russia and Ukraine continue to exchange cross-border shelling in the Sumy oblast. The settlements of Shalyhyne, Khotin, Esman, and Myropillia were attacked, with five civilians injured.

Odesa – Black Sea – Ukraine has reopened the Danube-Black Sea Canal after emergency restoration work to abandoned Soviet-era river ports and infrastructure. The canal’s opening will permit grain to be loaded at one newly restored river port. Bulk carriers could sail south from Ukraine to the Bosphorus Strait and beyond.

Beyond Ukraine – Ukrainian ground forces started building minefields on the border with Belarus and installing engineered barriers. Belarus has ongoing military exercises planned to end on July 8 but were extended through July 15 – 16.

Daily Assessment

1. Russian forces do not have a short-term answer to the NATO-provided M142 HIMARS rocket attacks, devastating ammunition depots, command and control, and critical transit hubs in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Kharkiv.
2. After the operational pause concludes, we maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for major fighting in northeastern Donetsk.
3. Supply interdiction by Ukrainian forces is impacting Russian military operations in Kherson.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

Become a Patreon today!

Please Support Malcontent News

When you become a subscriber, you help us stay independent and paid advertiser free. A free press is a Constitutional right, but it doesn’t come free. Our core missions are showing you an unfiltered view of the before, during, and after, defend the First Amendment, and amplify BIPOC and LGBTQIA+ voices in an advertisement free experience.
	For as little as $5 a month, you can support Malcontent News. Becoming a Patreon will help cover technology, data, bandwidth, and travel costs. Patreons get early access to content and a Discord server, virtual meetings with the staff, and private Zoom meetings. Subscribe NOW!
	A one-time Venmo donation can help with safety gear, equipment, or a small thank you to show your appreciation for what Malcontent News provides. No amount is too small, even $5 goes a long way. Venmo NOW!