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Washington hospitals will face an unprecedented capacity crisis in January

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[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) The promises of the COVID Omicron variant being “very mild” and only a cold are crumbling in London and New York. The crush of COVID-related hospitalizations has United Kingdom officials considering additional restrictions while New York officials issued a warning about a shocking rise in pediatric hospitalizations. Hospitals in Washington are more than 90 percent occupied, leaving almost no capacity to deal with any kind of surge, COVID or otherwise.

Reports, studies, and data are pouring in at an incredible rate from around the world with confusing and conflicting headlines. In the United States, the politicization of the COVID epidemic has created a news cycle more aligned to opinion and speculation, than a cautious review and analysis of available data. If Washington follows the United Kingdom and New York, hospitals across the state will be overwhelmed by the end of January.

When Omicron was first announced by the World Health Organization on Nov. 26, many latched on to the words of Dr. Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association when she described the variant as “very mild.”

“Most of them are seeing very, very mild symptoms and none of them so far have admitted patients to surgeries. We have been able to treat these patients conservatively at home,” she said.

Within hours more details emerged that had many advising caution. Dr. Coetzee isn’t a hospitalist and runs a private practice in the South Africa capital of Pretoria. She based her statements on seeing 24 patients, mostly college students, and 50 percent were vaccinated.

The World Health Organization (WHO) addressed her statement in a press release on Nov. 28.

“There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants. Initial reported infections were among university students—younger individuals who tend to have more mild disease—but understanding the level of severity of the Omicron variant will take days to several weeks.”

A month has passed since the WHO announced Omicron was a Variant of Concern (VOC). Data from South Africa, the UK, and New York is providing critical information on what will happen next for other nations including the United States.

Malcontent News has analyzed multiple studies, COVID case rates, hospitalization information, and mortality data from South Africa, the United Kingdom, and New York City. Our conclusion is that without drastic action in the next seven to ten days, Washington hospitals will face an untenable crisis by the end of January.

Researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) estimated Omicron was doubling every 2.4 days in the UK and has an Rt or “R naught” of 4.4. Rt is a measure of how quickly a disease can spread. At 3.0, up to 50 percent of people can expect to become infected with the Omicron variant – at 4.0, the figure jumps to 90 percent.

On Dec. 23, Trevor Bedford, Ph.D. with Fred Hutch, estimated that Omicron was doubling every 2.4 days and had an Rt of 4.4 in King County.

Case information from South Africa’s hospitals has revealed that recent previous COVID Delta variant infections are not providing much protection from the Omicron variant. As hospitals in Gauteng Province became filled with COVID patients, reaching a peak days before Christmas, a pattern emerged. Over 80 percent were unvaccinated, and in the ICU, almost all the patients were unvaccinated.

Mortality rates in South Africa remained low through Dec. 10 and then started to climb. On Sunday, 66 were dying of COVID daily based on the 7 day moving average, 87 percent are unvaccinated and 466 total deaths have been recorded in the last week.

While it is factually correct that only 26 percent of all South Africans are vaccinated against COVID, in Gauteng the numbers more closely mirror some Eastern Washington counties. On Dec. 17 South African officials reported 44% of all eligible adults in Gauteng are fully vaccinated, including 66% of people over 50 years old. Even at 26 percent, Stevens County is only 33 percent vaccinated and already experiencing high transmission.

South African officials found that although the risk of hospitalization from Omicron was as much as 70% lower than Delta, once a person was hospitalized, the disease progression resembled Delta with similar patient outcomes. Scientists in Europe and North America worried that the younger, relatively healthy population was masking the true impact of Omicron. Hospitals also saw a surge of children under five being hospitalized.

Washington and King County have far fewer children under 18 and a much older population than South Africa. The single biggest factor that determines the outcome of a COVID infection is age, even among the vaccinated. Multiple studies have concluded that without a booster shot, neutralizing antibodies against COVID has faded away, leaving the T cells to respond in a secondary response. Boosters dramatically improve the body’s response to Omicron, but less than half of eligible residents of King County have been boosted.

In a damaging blow to reaching a better understanding of the Omicron variant, the South Africa Department of Health announced on Dec. 24 the nation would stop most contact tracing, reduce quarantine times for infected people, and significantly reduce COVID testing. Reducing the number of tests will lower the daily case count while inflating the percentage of hospitalization patients. Shortening of quarantine periods for positive tests while ending most contact tracing could drive a new surge of community transmission.

As Omicron started to spread around the world, the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK reported 131 Omicron variant cases on Dec. 8. The first Omicron variant death was reported on Dec. 14 and by Christmas Eve, the NHS reported 122,186 cases as hospitalizations started to surge.

Bedford predicted on Dec. 18 that King County would have 2,100 new COVID cases by Dec. 23, which would shatter previous records. King County Public Health reported 2,879 new cases, a 169 percent increase in a week. Hospitalizations are a trailing indicator and looking at London and the UK, an increase in King County is roughly a week away.

Today, UK COVID hospitalizations are doubling every ten days. For the unvaccinated, people from 50 to 79 have a 30-fold greater chance of being hospitalized. The Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre examined hospitalization data from May to November and found that the unvaccinated had a relative risk to be hospitalized 60-times higher than the vaccinated – that data was without boosters.

According to the most recent data available, the UK National Health Service reported 1,171 people were admitted to hospitals with COVID on Dec. 20 – the highest number since Feb. 19 and higher than during the Delta wave. On Dec. 22, the 7-day moving average for new hospitalizations in London had reached 386, just a handful of cases below a “trigger number” of 400. The figure is half of the previous record peak of 850. If cases double again in the next ten days, a new and awful record would be in reach.

The LSHTM released an updated pre-print study on Dec. 23 modeling four potential scenarios for the UK and the progression of Omicron. The report was adjusted to factor in newly available data from the Imperial College of London published on Dec. 22. Report 50 hypothesized previous Delta infections combined with high vaccination rates in the UK would reduce the risk of hospitalization from an Omicron infection by 50 percent.

“These results suggest that the introduction of the Omicron B.1.1.529 variant in England will lead to a substantial increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which, in the absence of strict control measures, has the potential for substantially higher case rates than those recorded during the Alpha B.1.1.7 winter wave in 2020–2021. This is due to Omicron’s apparent high transmissibility and ability to infect individuals with existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2 from prior infection or from vaccination.”

Only one scenario found that hospitalizations would be below the record the UK set in January 2020. The most likely scenario of high immune escape with high booster dose efficacy predicts hospitalizations could soar to 5,000 a day by the end of January 2021. The National Health Service would have no capability to care for that many patients, even if they only required a few days of care with hydration and oxygen support.

The study also found that this was not inevitable, and additional mitigation plans to slow the spread of COVID could protect the hospital system and UK residents alike. However, the steps required are very unlikely to be taken or tolerated.

“The introduction of control measures is projected to partially suppress Omicron transmission; however, in the most pessimistic scenario, we project that stringent control measures such as those implemented following the Alpha B.1.1.7 winter wave of transmission may be required to ensure that healthcare services are not overwhelmed.”

In the United States, federal officials have openly stated concern that restrictions such as those used in the spring of 2020 could bring a wave of domestic terrorism. On Nov. 11, the National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin stated, “Pandemic-related stressors have contributed to increased societal strains and tensions, driving several plots by DVEs, and they may contribute to more violence this and next year. If a new COVID-19 variant emerges and new public health restrictions are imposed as a result, anti-government violent extremists could potentially use the new restrictions as a rationale to target government or public health officials or facilities.”

In King County, there are very few remaining public health options. The county has had a mask mandate in place since July with varying levels of compliance. Proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test is required to go to restaurants, bars, theaters, sports events, movies, gyms, and entertainment venues. However, one doesn’t have to dig deep to find Facebook groups and online lists of hundreds of businesses ignoring these requirements.

On the other side of the country, New York City is seven to ten days ahead of Seattle. Tens of thousands of, “guess who has COVID,” social media posts morphed into, “this is much worse than I thought” updates over the Christmas holiday. The number of hospitalized COVID patients almost doubled in a week in the City – from 1,046 on Dec. 18 to 1,904 on Dec. 24. The number of coronavirus patients in the ICU went from 187 to 283 during the same period. On Christmas Eve, parts of Manhattan had the highest COVID transmission rates on the planet.

New York Health Commissioner Mary T. Bassett issued a statement on Christmas Day, with pediatric COVID hospitalizations quadrupling in three weeks. “We are alerting New Yorkers to this recent striking increase in pediatric COVID-19 admissions so that pediatricians, parents, and guardians can take urgent action to protect our youngest New Yorkers.”

Officials did not release a patient census but did offer some information. Half of the hospitalized children were under five. None of the children under 12 were vaccinated, and only one-third of adolescent patients from 12 to 17 were fully vaccinated. Booster shots are not available to children under 16, and only recently became available to 16 and 17-year-olds.

The Washington Post reported that pediatric hospitalizations for COVID had jumped 31 percent in ten days, with almost 2,000 children hospitalized – a grim and new national record.

Pediatrician Aaron Milstone with Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine urged parents who have children with “cold” symptoms to assume “it’s Omicron until proven otherwise,” in an interview with the Washington Post.

Unlike South Africa and the United Kingdom which released updated reports over the Christmas holiday, data hasn’t been available from the Washington State Depart of Health (WSDoH) since Thursday. With new cases doubling every 2.4 days in King County, it is almost certain Washingtonians will see a dramatic increase in new COVID cases and COVID hospitalization in the coming week.

When it comes to the state’s ability to cope with another surge, Washington State Hospital Association (WSHA) Vice President Taya Briley minced no words during a Dec. 23 press briefing.

“Even if most people don’t get really sick, there are a lot of people who are getting infected with omicron, and some portion of them will get severely ill and need hospital care. Even if it’s a small portion of the overall total, this could mean a huge number of people getting sick enough to need hospitalization.”

Mark Taylor of the Washington Medical Coordination Center at Harborview Medical Center in Seattle, echoed her perspective.

“We really do not currently have the capacity within our facilities to accommodate a large surge as we just came through with the Delta surge.”

The most recent data available from the WSDoH is from Dec. 22. On Wednesday, there were 702 COVID patients hospitalized in Washington, with 95 requiring ventilators. The number of hospitalized patients had increased 13 percent in 48 hours before the Christmas holiday data break.

Using the 7 day moving average data from the Healthcare Readiness tab from the WSDoH COVID dashboard, there are an estimated 652 staffed acute care and 145 staffed ICU beds available across the state. If COVID cases were to double over the next ten days regional hospitals will run out of all beds, unless other measures are taken.

Demoralized doctors and nurses are already in a physical, emotional, and mental health crisis as the Delta wave was coming to an end. Over the weekend, many expressed fury at new guidelines released by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on Christmas Eve.

The new guidelines reduced the amount of time medical personnel needs to isolate if they have close contact or are positive for COVID. If hospitals move to contingency care hospital workers could be made to return to work after five days, even if they are mildly symptomatic. Under crisis standards of care, employees could be made to continue to work even if they are experiencing mild or moderate symptoms.

The CDC defines moderate illness as, “individuals who have evidence of lower respiratory disease, by clinical assessment or imaging, and a saturation of oxygen (SpO2) ≥94% on room air at sea level.”

More troubling, The update has no specific requirements for N95 masks or N100 respirators, defining facemasks as, “OSHA defines facemasks as “a surgical, medical procedure, dental, or isolation mask that is FDA-cleared, authorized by an FDA EUA, or offered or distributed as described in an FDA enforcement policy. Facemasks may also be referred to as ‘medical procedure masks’.”

The medical community is concerned that COVID could be passed to patients hospitalized for other reasons, while spreading among other staff, limiting the ability to meet rising cases. In states where medical personnel isn’t required to be vaccinated, data from South Africa and the UK suggests the CDC guidelines could have a devastating impact on hospital readiness.

As a better understanding of Omicron has become available a grim picture for January is emerging. In King County, 81.3% of all residents five and older are fully vaccinated. That is almost ten percent lower than London and the vaccination rate for Washington state isn’t much higher than Florida.

Several studies have shown that the current vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer have significantly reduced effectiveness without a booster. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is even less effective. Boosters have been proven to provide additional projection, but breakthrough cases remain frequent. For most of the vaccinated that develop symptoms, their cases are mild to moderate.

The number of breakthrough cases had driven up anti-vaccination rhetoric at a national and even local level, with Jason Rantz criticizing the King County vaccine mandate.

“But if Omicron evades the vaccine and the best protection, according to the city, and the department is to abide by procedures used before a vaccine was even available, then what sense did it make to fire unvaccinated staff? They’re just as vulnerable to the dominant variant as the vaccinated.”

The statement is factually incorrect, given the evidence from South Africa, Israel, Denmark, and the UK showing that while breakthrough cases among the vaccinated are high, hospitalizations are extremely low.

Several case studies on the true number of breakthrough cases and vaccine effectiveness have emerged in an unlikely place. Multiple cruise ships have had their itineraries disrupted due to onboard COVID cases. The Royal Caribbean ship, Odyssey of the Seas, was denied entry to two ports of call after confirming 55 coronavirus cases onboard. The ship left port with 95 percent of passengers fully vaccinated. The ship has 3,587 guests and 1,599 crew onboard. If every confirmed case was among vaccinated individuals, the breakthrough rate is around one percent. Officials have stated the cases are asymptomatic or mild.

The new case rate in King County is growing as fast as London with a similar Rt, which indicates up to 90 percent of residents will become infected with COVID in the next 60 days. Most of those cases will be asymptomatic or mild, but for the elderly, children under five years old, the unvaccinated, and the immunocompromised the data strongly suggests outcomes are similar to Delta.

Considering all we have learned about Omicron since Nov. 27 and looking at the data through a clinical, not-politically motivated lens, an unprecedented crisis will arrive with the New Year. If cases continue to double every 2.4 days and the Rt stays above 4, up to 90% of King County residents will be infected over the next 60 days. If COVID hospitalizations double every ten days starting this week, the state will be out of resources by Jan. 15.

As the Omicron variant spreads through Eastern Washington, likely fueled by Christmas holiday travel, officials will look to Western Washington to take their patients. The issues experienced during the Delta surge of patient transfers by aircraft and ambulance will be even worse due to winter weather and an increasing number of sickened personnel.

With pandemic fatigue, politicization, Christmas and New Year’s travel and celebration, and no ability to add additional public health measures without risking a violent response, it seems unlikely that we will prevent what is coming.

Health and Lifestyle, Local, National

In 48 hours, COVID hospitalizations increased 13% in Washington

[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) Washington hospitals added 92 more COVID patients between Monday and Wednesday, eliminating two weeks of improvement in 48 hours as new COVID cases rose to early November levels.

According to the Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH), there were 610 hospitalized COVID patients on Dec 20. That number rose to 702 on Wednesday. The number of patients on ventilators had dropped as low as 79 on Dec, 16, and had increased to 95 on Wednesday. Statewide 91% of staffed acute care, and 88% of staffed ICU beds were filled.

The Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH) also reported a sharp increase in new COVID cases. In a week the 7 day moving average increased 86% from 84.1 to 156.3 per 100K residents. Nine of the ten counties with the highest case rates are west of the Cascades, fueled in part by multiple super spreader events at schools in Pierce and Thurston Counties in early December.

Percent of Total Population Fully VaccinatedPercentage of Vaccinated People with Booster DoseTotal Population in GroupAverage 7-Day New Case Rate
70.00% or above39.15%2,343,250210.7
60.00% to 69.99%35.36%1,669,300162.6
50.00% to 59.99%32.23%3,339,300124.5
40.00% to 49.99%29.41%268,97577.9
32.70% to 39.99%35.38%151,85080.6
7 Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate for Total Population, Adjusted for Population by County, Booster percentage is based on totally fully vaccinated, not eligible, Average 7-day New Case Rate <25 normal, =>25 to 99.9 moderate to significant, => 100, high transmission

The Puget Sound region had some of the highest new case rates in the state. Pierce County was in second place with 225.6 per 100K, King County was in fourth place with 213.6 per 100K, and Snohomish County was in eighth place reporting 144.6 cases per 100K residents. Twenty-four Washington counties have substantial or high transmission.

The University of Washington Virology Lab and Trevor Bedford, Ph.D. of Fred Hutch, estimate the Rt in King County is 4.4. Rt, or “r naught,” is a measurement for how quickly a disease is spreading within a population. The figure is an estimation of how many people an infected person will pass a disease to. In King County, a person infected with the Omicron variant is passing it to 4.4 people. In comparison, the highest rate experienced after March 2020 was 2.1 during the Delta wave.

In a series of tweets today, Bedford estimated that the time it takes to become symptomatic is shorter than the original strain and Delta, about three days, which may be contributing to the meteoric rise in cases and what may be a near equally fast decline.

Understanding how much Omicron can spread and how sick it is making people remains somewhat of a mystery. When COVID first struck in December 2019, it was moving through a population with no prior exposure, without vaccines, and no understanding of what an effective treatment plan looks like. Two years later hundreds of millions globally who have had prior infections, 25 different vaccinations, different boosters shot protocols, and varying treatments have clouded the impact of the new variant.

Several studies out of South Africa and the UK indicated people have a 30% to 90% lower chance of being hospitalized due to Omicron versus Delta. However, data out of both nations have shown once a patient is hospitalized, the progression of an Omicron infection is the same as the Delta variant. Researchers aren’t sure if the lower rate is caused by Omicron being milder or if prior infections and vaccinations are blunting the severity among those who get sick.

Researchers in the UK are watching the United States closely to better understand the severity of Omicron. Due to the strength of the antivaccination movement fueled by COVID disinformation, the United States has a statistically significant population that is not only unvaccinated but who will not seek out hospital treatment until they are critically ill.

In Gauteng Province in South Africa, Omicron has peaked in alignment with a forecast prepared by the South Africa Department of Health at the start of the month. South African officials have reported almost 400 deaths in the last week, and Gauteng is still caring for over 3,500 COVID patients.

Another factor that will make tracking the progress harder is the holiday break between Dec 24. and Jan 3. There are fewer tests that happen over weekends and many testing centers will be closed on Christmas and New Year’s Day. The WSDoH won’t report data from Dec. 24 through Dec. 26, and it will take a couple of days for test results to catch up. The same phenomenon will occur from Dec. 31 through Jan. 2. Some may misinterpret the lower number of tests as proof that Omicron won’t have a major impact.

Doctors lost a critical tool in reducing hospitalizations during the Delta wave today, as the FDA paused the distribution of monoclonal antibodies from Regeneron and Lilly. The cocktail that was administered intravenously, was up to 70% effective in preventing hospitalizations but has been rendered useless by the Omicron variant. Sotromivab is the remaining effective monoclonal antibody but is not manufactured in the United States so supplies are tight. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services distributed 55,000 doses this week nationally, with Washington getting 552. Another 300,000 doses will be ready in January.

On Wednesday the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to the antiviral drug Paxlovid, made by Pfizer. Paxlovid was shown to reduce hospitalizations and death by as much as 89% in phase three testing. The medical is a pill that can be taken at home, eliminating the need for injection clinics and putting high-risk COVID patients together for treatment. The first 265,000 doses will be distributed nationally in January. HHS has not released information on state allocations. With national COVID cases forecasted to be as high as 2.8 million per day by the end of next month, it will be a drop in a bucket filled with COVID.

The FDA also granted EUA for the Merck antiviral, molnupiravir. Developed to treat diseases a range of viruses such as influenza and Ebola, Merck reported phase three testing found the oral medical was 50% effective at preventing COVID hospitalizations. Millions of doses of the drug have already been staged across the United States in anticipation of its approval.

In November the FDA reluctantly voted to approve the drug in a 13-10 vote. After reviewing the data provided by Merck, effectiveness was projected to be 30%. Ultimately, despite the lower success rate, the advisory committee decided that the benefits outweighed the risks.

All three medications are meant to be administered to people who are at high risk for severe disease due to comorbidities such as having a compromised immune system. Some states such as Florida have stated they will ignore FDA guidelines despite the short supplies and will distribute the medications on a first-come, first-served basis.

The UK and France reported a record number of new cases today while in the United States, new COVID case counts exceed the peak set during the Delta wave. The IHME in Seattle predicts that between Jan. 1 and Mar. 1 there will be 140 million COVID cases in the United States. The same forecast estimates that Washington could experience 28,000 to 40,000 new cases a day toward the end of January.

On Dec. 22, Dr. Anthony Fauci said that large gatherings over the holiday would not be safe, even with booster shots and masks.

“There are many of these parties that have 30, 40, 50 people in which you do not know the vaccination status of individuals. Those are the kind of functions in the context of Omicron that you do not want to go to,” Fauci said during a White House briefing.

On the same day Fauci recommended skipping large gatherings, the TSA screened 2.1 million airline passengers. That was almost double the number of people from 2020 and 150,000 more people than 2019 B.C. – Before COVID.

Health and Lifestyle, Local, National

COVID cases fueled by Omicron skyrocket globally, nationally, and in Washington

Texas officials report the first Omicron related fatality in the United States

Editor’s Note: As a policy, Malcontent News does not quote or publish data from pre-print studies. The transmission rate of the Omicron SARS-CoV2 variant is so high it is spreading at a rate faster than the scientific review process. For this reason, we are using pre-print studies in our reporting and analysis for the Omicron variant. We will continue to backlink to all quoted sources to support transparency in reporting.

Updated: Story edited to report first Omicron death in the United States

[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) Washington state moved back to high transmission risk for COVID as new cases fueled by the Omicron variant grew 32 percent over the weekend. The highly contagious variant was discovered in South Africa, spreading to over 90 countries in six weeks.

The United States was reminded how serious Covid-19 is this evening, with Texas reporting the first Omicron-related death in the nation. Judge Lina Hidalgo of Harris County, Texas, tweeted that a man in his 50s had died of Omicron. He was unvaccinated and had health issues. It is reported he was treated with monoclonal antibodies, which have been rendered ineffective against the Omicron variant.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported 73% of new COVID cases across the United States are the Omicron variant, swamping Delta cases. The World Health Organization estimated cases are doubling every 1.5 to three days.

The CDC estimates that Omicron is 90% of new COVID cases in the New York City area, the Southeast, the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes states, and the Pacific Northwest. Omicron cases have been detected in 48 of 50 states, with Montana, Indiana, and Vermont confirming cases this afternoon.

On December 20, North Dakota, Montana, Indiana, and Vermont reported their first confirmed Omicron cases and Texas reported an Omicron-related death – Oklahoma and South Dakota lag the rest of the country in genomic sequencing of test samples

In Miami, lines of cars waited for hours to get COVID tests. Governor Ron DeSantis had boasted Florida had conquered coronavirus on Oct. 27, using data from the New York Times. On Monday evening, Florida reported more than 7,000 new cases a day, an increase of almost 300% in two weeks – second only to Hawaii.

The Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH) reported a sharp increase in COVID cases. The counties with the highest rates were distributed across Washington from the Olympic Pennisula to the Palouse. Only Wahikakum County reported low community spread on Monday.

Percent of Total Population Fully VaccinatedPercentage of Vaccinated People with Booster DoseTotal Population in GroupAverage 7-Day New Case Rate
70.00% or above39.15%2,343,250170.1
60.00% to 69.99%35.36%1,669,300136.0
50.00% to 59.99%32.23%3,339,300111.6
40.00% to 49.99%29.41%268,97577.6
32.70% to 39.99%35.38%151,85085.5
7 Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate for Total Population, Adjusted for Population by County, Booster percentage is based on totally fully vaccinated, not eligible, Average 7-day New Case Rate <25 normal, =>25 to 99.9 moderate, => 100, high transmission

Federal officials believe the actual case count is much higher due to asymptomatic carriers and home testing, which isn’t reported to county and state health departments.

According to the University of Washington Virology Lab, the genomic sequencing of SGTF COVID test samples was 70% positive for Omicron on Dec. 16. Data provided by Pavitra Roychoudhury, MSc, Ph.D., of the University of Washington Virology Division, showed Omicron cases had been lab-confirmed in Benton, Franklin, King, Pierce, Snohomish, Thurston, Walla Walla, Whatcom, and Yakima Counties.

Researchers had looked at test samples as far back as Nov. 7 from Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.

Frustration was building on social media as Western Washington residents tried to find rapid COVID antigen tests, booster shots, and appointments for children 5 to 11 to get vaccinated. People waited for hours in long lines to get lab tested for Covid-19 and worried about travel plans as the time to get test results back grew past 72 hours.

Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan announced that the Rainier Beach and West Seattle vaccination clinics will remain open for boosters and vaccinations into January 2022. Tests sites across the city run in cooperation with the University of Washington are expanding hours to try and meet growing demand. There are fixed test sites at Aurora, SODO, Rainier Beach, and West Seattle, as well as seven Curative kiosks placed throughout the City. In partnership with the City of Seattle, UW Medicine has also opened a site at City Hall, which is available to the public. Appointments are encouraged at all locations, and sites will be closed on Christmas Day.   

Area hospitals are at capacity even though COVID hospitalizations are low

The number of hospitalized COVID patients in Washington has slowly dropped through December. The WSDoH reported there were 640 hospitalized Covid-19 patients on Sunday, and 81 were on ventilators. The numbers are significantly higher than the end of the Fifth Wave in late May, and area hospitals are already filled with non-COVID patients.

Data from the U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) found regional hospitals have scant resources to manage another surge. Almost half of the regional hospital beds available are at Swedish on Broadway in Seattle and St. Joseph’s Medical Center in Tacoma. The report indicated there were 730 beds available, but that includes resources for pediatric patients and neonatal incubators. Available ICU beds include NICU incubators, PICU beds, and critical care resources for post-surgical, transplant, trauma, and burn patients.

HospitalCityAcute Care TotalAcute Care AvailableICU TotalICU Available
OverlakeBellevue26417344
Swedish – Cherry HillSeattle17024216
Seattle Children’sSeattle308299612
U.W. Medical CenterSeattle6415813998
Swedish – BroadwaySeattle568907955
HarborviewSeattle40099710
Virginia MasonSeattle238203313
EvergreenHealthKirkland2518372
Swedish – IssaquahIssaquah10083026
Valley MedicalRenton292365027
St. Anne’sBurien161443123
Swedish – EdmondsEdmonds1731495
Harrison MemorialBremerton28136496
MultiCareAuburn13831161
St. FrancisFederal Way15545151
St. Anthony’sGig Harbor1080163
ProvidenceEverett61147778
Tacoma GeneralTacoma310-9462
Mary Bridge Children’sTacoma8334114
St. Joseph’sTacoma5732347614
Data is through December 9, 2021, as reported to the U.S. Health and Human Services for all hospitals with more than 50 beds and ICU resources within 30 miles of downtown Bellevue – acute care beds include adult, pediatric, and neonatal, ICU beds include NICU, PICU, and specialized critical care units for post-surgical, trauma, and burns

In a worrying sign from New York, officials reported on Monday night that while many people are experiencing breakthrough cases and having mild symptoms, unvaccinated individuals were 11 times more likely to be hospitalized.

More data released on vaccine and monoclonal antibody effectiveness against Omicron

In an announcement early Monday, Moderna said preliminary data from lab testing found that a booster of the currently available vaccine increased antibody levels to an effective level. The drugmaker said its currently FDA-approved 50 microgram booster increased neutralizing antibody levels 37-fold against Omicron and 83-fold with a 100 microgram “full dose” booster.

An independent study released last week that evaluated the effectiveness of the Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines had similar results. Vaccine effectiveness appears to be significantly impacted by how long ago someone received their final dose or booster. Multiple studies have found the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is significantly less effective.

Results from a study that reviewed the effectiveness of the Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines after three months, more than six months, with the previous infection, and with a booster. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was evaluated using a Modern 50 microgram dose as a booster

A study from the U.K. found that relying on immunity from a previous COVID infection was only 19 percent effective against preventing symptomatic reinfection and 20 percent when relying on vaccination without a booster. The same study found that a booster dose increased protection by 50 to 85 percent. Overall the risk for reinfection was 5.4 times greater than Delta. The study done by the Imperial College of London used PCR test data from Nov. 29 to Dec. 11.

In New York, hospitalists at Mount Sinai Hospital were advised to stop administering monoclonal antibodies because they were ineffective against Omicron. The memo reported that most people seeking treatment had breakthrough infections with mild symptoms that didn’t warrant hospitalization.

Washington state is waiting for the first 552 doses of the monoclonal antibody sotrovimab. Granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in May, it is the only remaining effective early treatment for Omicron in the United States.

Concern grows as the hopes of Omicron being “only a cold” fade away

South Africa officials reported 105 COVID-related deaths across the nation on Monday. The number of ICU patients has increased 144 percent since Nov. 25. Omicron appears to have peaked in Gauteng Province but continues to spread rapidly across the nation of almost 60 million.

United Kingdom officials reported another five Omicron COVID-related deaths, bringing the total to 12. Hospitalizations of children under 5 increased 39% week over week, and thousands of healthcare workers have been stricken with Covid-19 infections, causing staffing issues.

A study by the University of Texas Austin for the CDC was made public on Dec. 16. It looked at 18 different scenarios for the spread of Omicron. In ten of those scenarios, the healthcare system in the United States is overrun by patients.

President Joe Biden will address the nation on Tuesday to outline the administration’s new steps to aid states and communities while trying to curb the spread of COVID.

Yesterday, former President Donald Trump addressing a crowd of admirers in Dallas told the audience he had received his booster. A smattering of jeers and boos rippled across American Airlines Center.

“Don’t, don’t, don’t, don’t …” he said.

“There’s a very tiny group over there,” the former President added.

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Where London goes with Omicron Seattle will follow, with the rest of the US close behind

[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) A record 93,000 new COVID cases were reported in the United Kingdom by the National Health Service just hours after Trevor Bedford, Ph.D., an Associate Professor, Biostatistics, Bioinformatics and Epidemiology Program Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research indicated that where London goes, Seattle will follow five days later.

France closed its borders to the UK on Friday evening and on Saturday, London Mayor Sadiq Khan declared a “major incident” as Covid-19 hospital admissions rose 30% in a week. The National Health Service reported seven people have died from the Omicron variant and believe that “hundreds of thousands” of cases are going unreported. Cases are expected to grow at a dizzying rate well into January.

On Friday, Bedford told reporters that 50 percent of new Covid-19 cases in King County, were likely Omicron and doubling every 2.4 days. The next day, Pavitra Roychoudhury, MSc, Ph.D., of the University of Washington Virology Division tweeted that Omicron was 50 percent of all cases in Washington.

In an interview published on Saturday in the New York Intelligencer, Bedford shared his prediction on what is to come. “I can expect caseloads that are huge. I can easily expect a 50 percent attack rate from Omicron. I can easily expect that.”

“Attack rate,” is how much of the population will be infected – and Bedford predicts that half of the United States population will catch the Omicron variant. Because the United States does not take a national approach to genomic sequencing, and not all hospitals test patients for COVID at admission, the number of people already hospitalized is murky. From the earliest reports, the hospitalization rate was between 2% to 5%.

There was little good news to be found over the weekend on the impact the new wave is going to have on the United States. In the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes Region hospitals are already at or over capacity and receiving additional aid from FEMA. Many states are struggling with dwindling testing funds and a lack of data because tracking systems were dismantled over the summer.

A cascade of drug makers indicated late in the week that the current version of monoclonal antibodies in distribution aren’t effective against the Omicron variant. Unlike vaccines, which target all antibodies, monoclonal antibodies only target one. The antibody that was “cloned” in the process was effective against previous variants but doesn’t produce a significant immune response with Omicron.

In a series of studies, only Sotrovimab, produced by GlaxoSmithKline, showed promise against the fast-spreading variant. The monoclonal antibody received Emergency Use Authorization ( EUA) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on May 26. Health and Human Services (HHS) reported they would be distributing 55,000 doses across the United States this week, with Washington receiving 552.

Back in the UK, the National Health Service reported that on any given day, about one percent of the national health force would be absent from work due to illness. In London, the number of workers calling out sick surged 40 percent. In the United States, healthcare workers have been fleeing the profession for years, while nurses have complained about short staffing for over a decade. Area hospitals will be impacted dramatically if Omicron starts to infect their workforces.

HHS reported over 68,000 people were hospitalized with COVID across the United States. Statewide on Friday, only eight percent of acute care and 12 percent of ICU beds were available. In King County many hospitals are already at or above capacity, but not due to COVID patients. A shortage of staffed skilled nursing and rehabilitation beds has left patients ready for discharge nowhere to go.

Over the summer when patient loads were lower, the Delta wave brought Oregon and Washington hospitals to the brink of crisis standards of care while collapsing the healthcare systems in Idaho and Alaska. Hospitalization rates for COVID and non-COVID patients are already much higher as the region prepares to face the biggest challenge yet.

According to HHS, EvergreenHealth Kirkland had 19 acute care beds available while Overlake had 17. Both hospitals were reporting ICUs near capacity with 3 beds at Evergreen and 4 at Overlake.

During the Delta surge, states learned that activating the National Guard for nurses and doctors was a poor option. Trained hospital staff who are “weekend warriors” were frequently already supporting surging hospital admissions. The activation in some cases made staffing situations worse.

King County residents vented their frustration on social media about the inability to get a booster shot, find home COVID antigen tests, and PCR test results being delayed. In other circles, Seahawks fans raged against the scheduling change against the Rams due to coronavirus.

Officials in the UK pleaded with government officials to implement further public health restrictions to stem the tide of new cases, as models indicate that by January, the island nation could see 3,000 to 4,000 new hospitalizations a day. Londoners were already starting to deal with closed shops and restaurants, and delays in services because so many people have been sickened.

It is unlikely any additional restrictions will be implemented across the United States, where COVID has been turned into a political weapon. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) indicated in a Nov. 10 memo, “If a new COVID-19 variant emerges and new public health restrictions are imposed as a result, anti-government violent extremists could potentially use the new restrictions as a rationale to target government or public health officials or facilities.“

Numerous studies and growing real-world data from Africa and Europe indicate that immunity from prior COVID infections or vaccination without a booster provides enough protection to prevent severe COVID symptoms that result in hospitalization and death. Booster shots ideally received within the previous 12 weeks, boost immunity for more.

For people relying on viral vector vaccines such as Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca, or Russia’s GNCEM, there appears to be even less protection without a booster. On Thursday, The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) endorsed the recommendation from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) to recommend the mRNA Pfizer and Moderna vaccines over Johnson and Johnson. The decision was made due to the waning effectiveness of the J&J vax and nine confirmed fatalities, seven women including one from Seattle, and two men, from vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT).

A study published on Dec. 14 found that Moderna with a booster provided the best protection from Omicron, followed by Pfizer with a booster, and then Johnson & Johnson with a Moderna booster. The study also evaluated individuals who had a previous COVID infection and then got vaccinated. They found that immunity was better than vaccination without a booster, but not as robust.

Real-world data from Europe and Africa indicate that relying on immunity from a previous COVID infection is offering little protection from becoming symptomatic. Epidemiologists have stated it is possible to be infected with the Delta and Omicron variants at the same time. It also appears that natural immunity from Omicron won’t protect a person from a later Delta infection.

There is mounting evidence that Omicron is no more severe than Delta, but little evidence it is less so. On Friday the Imperial College of London released a report that found no evidence that Omicron is “mild.”

“The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection. However, hospitalisation data remains very limited at this time.”

The challenge for the public and health experts is comparing the current global wave to previous spikes in COVID cases. During the original wave in the spring of 2020, no one had any type of immunity. When the Alpha and Beta waves came in the winter of 2020, vaccines were just rolling out. When Delta arrived the variant was more transmissible and more severe than prior strains. It also was capable of nibbling around the edges of vaccine protection due to its mutations.

Omicron has arrived in a population that has received a variety of mRNA and viral-vector vaccines with different doses as well as disease acquired immunity from different strains. The timing of receiving a vaccine, prior infection, or a combination also impacts how much immunity a person has.

Many people are more mobile and have returned to work and school while simultaneously taking fewer precautions. An additional challenge is the rate of vaccination is not homogenous, with highly vaccinated communities adjacent to vaccine-resistant populations.

All of these factors are obscuring the true nature of Omicron and because the United States does a poor job of genomic sequencing in some states, little is known about the current hospitalized population and which variant patients have.

Although data out of South Africa has been more encouraging, experts had warned that the recent end of the Delta wave, a higher than understood vaccination rate, and the youthful nature of the South Africa population would favor better outcomes. Although only 26% of South Africa’s total population is vaccinated, over 34% of the county was ineligible due to age. On Oct. 20, the nation expanded vaccination to 12 to 17-year-olds and introduced booster shots to adults on Dec. 9. In reality, 44% of South African adults are fully vaccinated, including 61 percent of people over 50. Additionally, only 5.7% of South African residents are 60 or older.

Researchers are watching King County closely for several reasons. The region is a leader in genomic sequencing and research. As Omicron moves through the region it will provide critical data to build a better understanding of transmissibility, the impact on public health measures, prevention and treatment, and how severe Omicron is. King County is highly vaccinated, but has pockets of low vaccine acceptance, providing a more realistic cross-section. Finally, New York City is almost unique compared to other US cities due to its size, reliance on public transit, and the number of people who live in buildings with communal areas.

Dr. Cameron Webb, the senior policy advisor for equity for the White House COVID Response Team shared early symptoms to look for if you start feeling ill.

  • Sore throat, espeically if it is more than mild
  • Headache
  • Fatigue – severe fatigue appears more common in children
  • Runny nose
  • Sneezing
  • Dry cough

County health officials continue to appeal for people to get vaccinated and get a booster shot if they are eligible. They recommend frequent hand washing and wearing an N-95, KN-94, or KN95 mask whenever you’re out of your home, and to stop using cloth masks. When it comes to Christmas and New Year’s celebrations and travel plans, it is recommended to test the day off and celebrate outside or in well-ventilated indoor areas.

Because of the systems put in place by King County Public Health and supported by County Executive Dow Constantine, the region is better prepared to provide vital data to the rest of the nation. It is very likely that by Christmas, Seattle will feel a lot more like March 2020 than December 2021.

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BREAKING: King County residents are urged to prepare for the largest COVID wave to date

[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) A forecast created by Trevor Bedford, Ph.D., an Associate Professor, Biostatistics, Bioinformatics and Epidemiology Program Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, projects that King County will reach record levels by Dec. 22.

In a press conference on Friday, Dr. Jeffrey Duchin, Health Officer, Public Health Seattle & King County said, “The Omicron outbreak we’ve been talking about is no longer theoretical. It is real and it’s here.”

Dr. Duchin shared the current situation in King County, adding that UW Medicine is finding 40% of tests are positive for Omicron and new COVID cases are up 50% since Thanksgiving.

Dr. Santiago Neme, MD, MPH of UW Medicine expressed concern over the number of patients already in Washington hospitals. “Our numbers for COVID infected patients have decreased,” Dr. Neme, said, “but we have been operating at a full or over full capacity for several months in many areas of the state.”

“Any increase in hospital rates or utilization will be pretty challenging for us and very concerning.”

Dr. Duchin added that In King County, hospitals are already caring for twice as many patients as before the start of the Delta wave in August.

Bedford told reporters that the Seattle-Bellevue area would be one of the first cities in the United States to experience widespread Omicron infections and the area was only “a few days” behind London. “New York City is ahead of Seattle and Rhode Island is as well,” he said. But he added this may be due to Seattle having “great S gene drop out data.” S Gene Target Failure (SGTF) is a faster way to identify a likely Omicron variant infection from a positive COVID test. Genomic sequencing is required to make an absolute determination.

Dr. Alexander L. Greninger M.D., Ph.D., M.S., M.Phil., assistant director of the UW Medicine Clinical Virology Laboratory told reporters that sequencing has a 5 to 7 day lag time.

“The number of samples coming into the labs are as high as we’ve seen during the pandemic, yesterday and the day before,” Dr. Greninger added. The UW Medicine Virology Lab has sequenced about 100 samples, and “98 or 99” were positive for Omicron.

The model was created using genomic sequencing data of positive COVID tests, and information on transmission rates from other countries such as the United Kingdom and South Africa. Bedford estimated Omicron cases were doubling in King County every 2.2 days, which is supported by reports from the University of Washington Department of Virology. If the forecast is accurate there could be 2,100 Omicron cases on top of 500 Delta cases in King County by Wednesday. That would far exceed the record number of daily new cases during the fifth wave, and the doubling would continue every one to three days into January.

“Omicron is an airborne disease like Delta and spreads easier indoors, and is a lot more contagious,” Dr. Duchin said, adding, “We do not yet have a clear picture on severity.”

To prepare for the coming wave the message was clear, “The single most important thing you can do is to get vaccinated and boosted even if you’ve had a prior infection,” said Dr. Duchin, “but vaccination alone won’t stop the spread of Omicron.”

King County Health said we need to take advantage of as many layers of protection as we can. That includes wearing tight-fitting N-95, KN-95, or KN-94 masks indoors. The public should avoid crowded indoor spaces, especially if people are unmasked and there is poor air circulation. If anyone feels sick, they should get tested for COVID and stay home to help blunt the spread.

“If you do gather please do safely as possible,” Dr. Duchin appealed. “Limit the number and size of gatherings. Avoid crowded indoor spaces. Do a rapid test on the day of the gathering. Gatherings will be better in large outdoor places or indoor with open windows and doors.”

Dr. Duchin also recommends avoiding travel, especially to areas with high COVID transmission rates. He added that King County has not closed the door on further public health safety measures, but does not plan to add additional measures beyond the guidelines already in place.

The panel stressed that the severity of illness caused by Omicron is still not known. “My read on severity is still difficult – a large portion of infections are both breakthrough and reinfections,” Bedford told reporters. “It may well be the case that Omicron is intrinsically less severe than Delta, but we don’t know. What matters is how many cases do we get and what fraction of those cases require hospitalizations. That is going to be a very large number of cases, severity is not clear enough to know if it will be very bad, bad, or not so bad.”

When asked about breakthrough cases among the vaccinated, Dr. Greninger said, “Moderna and Pfizer are significantly better than Johnson & Johnson.”

“Serious infection is the most important,” added Dr. Duchin. “Meaningful protection against serious infection, hospitalization, and death will protect many of us in vaccinated communities.”

In King County, 160,000 people 12 and older remain unvaccinated and 250,000 have only had a single dose. According to the Washington State Department of Health, about one-third of fully vaccinated King County residents have received a booster dose.

Public and private employers were urged to start contingency planning now to prepare for staffing shortages. “We need to prepare for a large wave of people becoming ill quickly together,” added Dr. Duchin. “We will try to get guidance so we can get people back to work as soon as possible but plan for ‘large scale’ absenteeism.

Public testing sites for COVID will remain open through the holiday season except on Christmas and New Year’s Day. When asked what to do if you need a test on Christmas or New Year’s, Dr. Duchin recommended using a home test versus going to a hospital emergency department.

When asked about the rest of the United States, Bedford didn’t provide an optimistic picture. “Expect things to light up across the United States shortly – first in the cities and then rural areas.”

Looking ahead to the future, Bedford shared that the models he created in the fall have changed significantly due to the Omicron variant.

“Omicron makes things ‘significantly worse.’ I’m quite worried in nine months we will have both Omicron and Delta circulating,” adding, “Omicron will not get us out of this.”

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Washington wrestling tournament Omicron super spreader event bigger than initially reported

[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) Dr. Scott Lindquist, State Epidemiologist for Communicable Diseases, Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH), reported that the number of COVID cases caused by the Dec 4. wrestling tournament super spreader events is significantly larger than previously reported.

“If you attended or participated, you should get tested,” Dr. Lindquist told reporters during a morning media briefing.

The WSDoH reported on Wednesday that 80 to 90 COVID cases were connected to four youth wrestling tournaments in Yelm, Puyallup, Sumner, and Lacey. Dr. Lindquist said this morning that since the initial report they have identified “more locations” than what the state was aware of.

The confirmed cases are spread out across 11 local health districts across Western Washington and out to Yakima County. County health departments are in the process of contact tracing individuals and doing interviews. In a story on My Northwest, Dr. Jeff Duchin, King County health officer reported there was one known hospitalization.

Because the impact is spread out over a large area and involves 12 health departments, WSDoH doesn’t have detailed information on vaccination status or how many participants and spectators have been infected. The number of new cases is expected to rise over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Dr. Linquist explained they have requested three to five samples of positive tests from each impacted county for genomic sequencing. The first three samples were positive for the Omicron variant. He added that this “clearly is an Omicron outbreak.”

December 16 media briefing with dr. Scott Lindquist, Washington state department of health

“I have a sense this will be very large and Omicron will play a big role in this,” Dr. Linquist added.

Pictures and videos from the tournaments showed packed indoor gymnasiums with a handful of people wearing masks. Washington state guidelines would have required masks for all spectators, for unvaccinated athletes who presented a negative COVID test before the tournament and for all athletes not actively competing.

“This does not bode well to have an event this early with Omicron in Washington state.”

A lot is still not known about the Omicron variant which has spread to 77 countries and across the United States just a month after being identified by South African researchers. Early data indicates it is highly transmissible, with multiple countries seeing a doubling of cases every one to three days. Over a dozen studies have found that Omicron is resistant to vaccines. Early data out of South Africa implies that vaccination is helping blunt the severity of symptomatic cases. Additional lab analysis, and anecdotal data out of Israel indicate boosters provide a significant increase in protection against infections.

Initial reports in late November that Omicron is “very mild” and wasn’t resulting in hospitalizations were overly optimistic. According to the National Institute of Communicable Diseases, South Africa has over 7,600 hospitalized COVID patients on Dec. 16, up 258% since Nov. 11. The ratio of patients that require oxygen jumped up this week as infections are progressing. The National Health Service in the United Kingdom reported its first confirmed Omicron variant related death earlier this week.

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Omicron variant 20% of Washington COVID cases

[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) Pavitra Roychoudhury, MSc, Ph.D., of the University of Washington Virology Division, reported 20% of tests samples submitted for genomic sequencing are positive for the Omicron variant. From Dec. 6 to Dec. 10, Omicron jumped from 1% to 20% of samples tested using an S Gene Target Failure (SGTF) test.

The Washington State Department of Health reported on Dec. 13, 75.3% of residents 12 and older are fully vaccinated. Multiple studies have shown that three months after vaccination, Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson and Johnson had low neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron variant but enough of a secondary response to prevent severe infections. On Dec. 15, the WSDoH reported 1.48 million people of 3.3 million eligible had received a booster shot. Boosters doses have been shown to increase neutralizing antibodies and add additional protection.

Percent of Total Population Fully VaccinatedPercentage of Vaccinated People with Booster DoseTotal Population in GroupAverage 7-Day New Case Rate
70.00% or above33.67%2,343,25072.1
60.00% to 69.99%30.67%1,669,30093.6
50.00% to 59.99%28.79%3,339,30087.4
40.00% to 49.99%25.62%268,97576.5
32.70% to 39.99%31.51%151,850102.6
7 Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate for Total Population, Adjusted for Population by County, Booster percentage is based on totally fully vaccinated, not eligible, Average 7-day New Case Rate <25 normal, =>25 to 99.9 moderate, => 100, high transmission

Statewide, the 7 day moving average for new COVID cases was 84.1, indicating moderate coronavirus transmission across the state. Ferry and Columbia Counties are hot spots, while a surge in new cases in Garfield County was winding down.

On Wednesday, the WSDoH reported four super spreader events on Dec. 4, involving high school wrestling tournaments in Yelm, Puyallup, Sumner, and Lacey. Participants and spectators came from  Clark, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, King, Kitsap, Lewis, Mason, Skagit, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, Whatcom, and Yakima Counties, and one school from Oregon.

Officials reported that 80 to 90 people had confirmed COVID cases so far, and they expect to find more infections. Infections were among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, and three genomic sequenced tests were positive for the Omicron variant.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) presented two potential national scenarios in a closed-door media briefing. The first predicted a continued Delta surge followed by a smaller wave of Omicron cases spiking in the early spring. The second had Delta, Omicron, and Influenza surging simultaneously in January, potentially overwhelming hospitals.

Omicron has world leaders and health officials increasingly worried as cases surge around the globe. Seventy-seven countries and 36 states have confirmed cases.

In South Africa, over 7,300 people are hospitalized, an increase of 81% from a week ago, with cases exploding outside of Gauteng Province. The South Africa Department of Health reported 26,976 positive cases today, and the 7 day moving average jumped to over 23,000 – a new record.

The United Kingdom reported a single-day record for new COVID cases – 78,610. National Health Services leaders said 60% of all cases in London are the Omicron variant and 35% of cases nationwide. British prime minister Boris Johnson told reporters that cases of Omicron are doubling in less than two days.

“I’m afraid we’re also seeing the inevitable increase in hospitalizations up by 10 percent nationally week on week and up by almost a third in London.”

In a political blow, the conservative members of his party voted down stricter measures meant to curb the growing number of hospitalizations.

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control Rapid Risk Assessment from Dec. 15 issued a stark warning to the European Union members.

“Although current data on the severity of the infection associated with the Omicron [Variant of Concern] (VOC) remain limited, evidence to date raises concern that the Omicron VOC may be associated with a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection,” the report stated.

“Even in the case of lower infection/disease severity with the Omicron VOC, a steep, exponential increase in cases caused by the Omicron VOC will result in a growing number of cases with severe disease. As EU/EEA countries are still facing the severe impact of the Delta VOC wave, a further rise in hospitalisations could quickly overwhelm healthcare systems.”

Many pundits have rushed to declare Omicron as mild relying on abstracts, articles, and soundbites. Many doctors believe the early data is encouraging but caution against rushing to conclusions.

Several publications are quoting an article from the LKS Faculty of Medicine from the University of Hong Kong by Dr. Michael Chan Chi-wai, Associate Professor of School of Public Health and Principal Investigator, and Professor John Nicholls, Professor of Department of Pathology.

The research paper and study data have not been published and currently is under peer review. The article suggested that the Omicron variant can replicate 70 times faster in the lungs’ airways when compared to the Delta variant, creating a higher viral load. Dr. Chan also suggested that Omicron may infect multiciliated cells found in the deep lungs at a slower rate when compared to the Delta variant.

Dr. Chan stressed that COVID infections are complicated, and only looking at the ability to infect lung cells was too narrow to reach a broader conclusion on severity. “It is important to note that the severity of disease in humans is not determined only by virus replication but also by the host immune response to the infection, which may lead to dysregulation of the innate immune system.”

He went on to add, “By infecting many more people, a very infectious virus may cause more severe disease and death even though the virus itself may be less pathogenic. Therefore, taken together with our recent studies showing that the Omicron variant can partially escape immunity from vaccines and past infection, the overall threat from Omicron variant is likely to be very significant.”

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Omicron variant identified in 13% of recent Washington COVID tests

Editor’s Note: As a policy, Malcontent News does not quote or publish data from pre-print studies. The transmission rate of the Omicron SARS-CoV2 variant is so high it is spreading at a rate faster than the scientific review process. It is for this reason, we are using pre-print studies in our reporting and analysis for the Omicron variant. We will continue to backlink to all quoted sources to support transparency in reporting.

[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) Pavitra Roychoudhury, MSc, Ph.D., of the University of Washington Virology Division, reported 13% of tests samples submitted for genomic sequencing on Dec. 8 were positive for the Omicron variant. Tentative confirmation was made using an S Gene Target Failure (SGTF) test, with Dr. Roychoudhury indicating in a tweet that it will take a few days for genomic sequencing confirmation.

Using the data provided by the University of Washington, Omicron variant cases in Washington doubled every 24 hours from Dec. 6 to Dec. 8. The total number of new COVID cases being detected indicates that the Omicron variant is rapidly replacing Delta, not adding to confirmed cases at this time.

Nathan Grubaugh, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health, tweeted researchers were seeing a similar trend among samples collected in Connecticut.

If the rate of new case growth for Omicron continues at the current rate in Washington, it would be the fastest case growth rate observed to date. In South Africa and across the United States, Omicron cases have been doubling every three days. In the United Kingdom, cases have been doubling every two-and-a-half days and in Denmark, every two days.

Sikhulile Moyo, director at the Botswana Harvard AIDS Institute Partnership (BHP) lab in Gaborone and a research associate in immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health was the first person to sequence the Omicron variant on Nov. 8. He shared his findings on GISAID on Nov 11, which caught the attention of virologists around the world.

Lancet Labs in South Africa started seeing an alarming number of PCR tests from the Gauteng Province missing the target S gene in mid-November. Lancet shared the findings with the Network for Genomics Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA), which called an urgent meeting on 23 November. “We were shocked by the number of mutations,” says Tulio de Oliveira in a report in Science, a virologist at the University of KwaZulu-Natal and NGS-SA’s principal investigator.

On Nov. 24, Dr. Alex Sigal of the Africa Health Institute received three test swabs with the Omicron variant and started growing the virus to test it against sera from vaccinated and recovered individuals.

On the same day, Lancet sequenced another 100 samples with the missing S gene, and all were positive for the newly discovered variant. The South Africa Department of Health sent their findings to the World Health Organization (WHO) on Nov. 24, and Omicron was labeled a Variant of Concern (VOC) on Nov. 26.

Despite the first three cases appearing in Botswana, Omicron was likely circulating undetected on several continents by late October. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported last week that the first symptomatic Omicron case in the United States was on Nov. 15. The implementation of international travel restrictions likely had no impact on slowing the spread of the highly infectious variant.

Nevada became the most recent state to report an Omicron variant COVID case on December 14

Preliminary data has emerged over the last week on transmissibility, treatment efficacy, and vaccine effectiveness for Omicron.

A study out of South Africa published on Dec. 2, found that Omicron was 2.5 to 3.5 times more transmissible than Delta. The study, which has not been peer-reviewed, indicated the Rt, a measure of how quickly a communicable disease can spread, is between R12 and R17, which is comparative to measles. On Dec. 8, Hiroshi Nishiura, professor at Kyoto University released a study that found Omicron is 4.2 times more transmissible than Delta with an Rt of R20. If additional research were to find this true, the Omicron COVID variant would be the most transmissible disease observed in the modern medicine era.

Omicron is forecasted to become the dominant strain in the United Kingdom and Denmark this week and was already 44% of detected COVID cases in the UK on Tuesday. The CDC reported tonight Omicron represents 3% of all detected COVID cases in the United States.

Eleven studies and reports, none of which have been peer-reviewed, have been published on vaccine effectiveness in the last 10 days. Studies have evaluated the Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson and Johnson, and AstraZeneca vaccines.

Studies that reviewed the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine found that the effectiveness of preventing symptomatic illness dropped from 80% to zero to 35%, depending on the study. Very limited real-world data out of South Africa from Discovery Health released today showed that the Pfizer vaccine was only 33% effective at preventing infection.

The same study found that the Pfizer vaccine was 70% effective at preventing “severe complications of Covid-19,” down from 93% with the Delta variant.

Dr. Peter English, Retired Consultant in Communicable Disease Control, Former Editor of Vaccines in Practice, past Chair of the BMA Public Health Medicine Committee had this to say about the findings.

“Two doses of vaccine are 70% effective at preventing hospitalization. They are not ineffective, but they are much less effective than the 90-95% protection that two doses provided against hospitalization. With a highly infectious variant, this still risks a catastrophic number of hospitalizations.”

A non-peer-reviewed study published on Tuesday evening provided the first data on the effectiveness of the Moderna vaccine, and more data for the Johnson & Johnson/Jassen vaccine.

Researchers evaluated the sera from 239 vaccinated healthcare workers in the Boston area. The study found that for the Moderna and Pfizer vaccine, more than 50% of individuals had no neutralizing antibodies three months after vaccination. The Moderna vaccine showed a 43-fold decrease in antibodies while the Pfizer vaccine had a 122-fold decrease. The Johnson and Johnson vaccine performed better against the Omicron variant versus Delta but had significantly reduced effectiveness versus the original COVID strain.

For individuals who had a prior Covid-19 infection and then got vaccinated more than six months ago, the Moderna vaccine had a 9-fold decrease in neutralizing antibodies, the Pfizer vaccine had a 12-fold decrease, and the Johnson & Johnson vaccine had a 17-fold decrease.

The study also found an mRNA booster within the last three months provided a significant increase in neutralizing antibodies but did not provide the same level of protection versus the Delta variant. The samples from the Johnson and Johnson test subjects were all boosted with a half-dose of the Moderna vaccine.

Two studies on disease acquired immunity found that protection declined significantly compared to previous variants. A study published on Dec. 2 out of South Africa, which has not been peer-reviewed, found that protection against Omicron dropped 240% for individuals who were previously infected by the original strain, Beta, or Delta, and had never been vaccinated. Another study released on Dec. 9 reached a similar conclusion, and in an alarming find, reported up to 40% of individuals who had a previous Delta infection were experiencing reinfection with Omicron. The Delta wave ended on Sep. 19 in South Africa, suggesting it took less than three months for protection to wane.

Scientists, public health officials, and policymakers have been attempting to determine if Omicron is less severe than the Delta variant. The study released from Discovery Health today reported that Omicron was 29% less severe than the original COVID strain.

“Without seeing a preprint or the report on which this press release is based it is difficult to get a clear understanding of the validity of these conclusions,” said Prof. Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine at the University of East Anglia and a member of the National Institute of Health Research in the U.K. “If these are valid conclusions then there are both reassuring and worrying findings.  The report that reinfections are more common with Omicron has already been published and the evidence is strong that Omicron can increase the risk of infection in people who have already had a COVID infection.”

Other experts warned against reading too much into the Discovery Health report.

Dr. Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology, University of Reading, said, “This press release outlines preliminary observations of Covid-19 in South Africa during the first three weeks of the wave of infections caused by the Omicron.  It shouldn’t be forgotten that in the UK, during the initial epidemic there was a 5-week gap between the first diagnosis and the first death.  A situation report taken in those first few weeks would not have given us an accurate picture of what was about to happen, so we shouldn’t expect these preliminary indications to be a portent of how the Omicron epidemic will play out here.”

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) provided detailed information on Dec. 10 about the first 43 Omicron variant cases detected in the United States. The report found that one person required hospitalization and was released after two days. Almost 60% were 39 years old or younger and 33% had recently traveled internationally. Forty of the 43 cases were vaccinated or had a previous COVID infection. Among the 34 who were vaccinated, 14 had received a booster.

Officials believe the high infection rate for vaccinated individuals has created a data fallacy. International travelers are more likely to be vaccinated, younger, and healthier and many were not eligible for a booster.

The Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH) reported 75.3% of all Washingtonians 12 and older are fully vaccinated and almost one in four children five to eleven have received their first dose of the Pfizer COVID vaccine. An estimated 3.5 million residents are eligible for boosters, but only 1.35 million have received one to date.

WSDoH reported the 7 day moving average for new cases is 1,333, and the statewide 7 day moving average new case rate is 83.5 per 100K residents – moderate transmission. The state has been averaging 650 to 700 hospitalized COVID patients a day, with roughly 100 requiring ventilators.

Statewide new admissions for COVID-related illness started increasing on Nov. 27, and through Dec 7. was averaging 92 new admissions a day. On Tuesday there were approximately 642 available staffed acute care and 144 staffed ICU beds throughout Washington.

Health and Lifestyle, Local

BREAKING: 3 lab-confirmed Omicron variant COVID cases in Washington

[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) The Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH), in partnership with the UW Medicine Virology Laboratory, has confirmed a total of three cases of omicron variant in Thurston County, Pierce County, and King County. The patients range in age from 20 to 39, two men, one woman.

The patients are:

  • a man in his thirties from Thurston County,
  • a man in his twenties from Pierce County, and
  • a woman in her twenties from King County.

Confirmation came in midday Saturday, and officials were still in the process of notifying the patients.

The WSDoH did not have information on their condition, travel history, or vaccination status. The samples were collected using PCR tests between Nov. 29 and Dec. 1 and were submitted for genomic sequencing.

Sequencing has been prioritized for anyone with travel history or close contact with a confirmed case.

“We knew that it was a matter of time before omicron was sequenced in our state and so we were anticipating this very news,” said Umair A. Shah, MD, MPH, Secretary of Health. “We strongly urge people to get vaccinated and get their boosters as soon as possible to maximize their level of protection from any variant.”

“Even with a highly mutated virus-like omicron, we are not going back to square one of the pandemic,” said Dr. Jeff Duchin, Health Officer, Public Health – Seattle & King County. “Omicron may pose new challenges that we will need to respond to, but compared to the early days of the pandemic, we know much more about COVID-19, and we’re better prepared for it. We know layered protections work together to maximally reduce risk, and that will continue to be the case for delta and for omicron if that becomes a dominant strain circulating in our community.”

“We suspected that the omicron variant was circulating in our region, and now our laboratory has confirmed the first three cases in Washington state by viral genome sequencing in the last 24 hours. Throughout the pandemic, it’s been a huge team effort by the UW Medicine Virology Laboratory, requiring development and implementation of several diagnostic and sequencing assays to detect and confirm the variety of COVID-19 variants that have surfaced in Washington state,” said Dr. Geoffrey Baird, chair of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology at UW School of Medicine. To date, the laboratory has tested approximately 3.8 million COVID-19 samples.

A study about the transmissibility of the omicron variant was released from a multinational group of researchers on Friday. The study, which has not been peer-reviewed, indicated that omicron is two times to three times more transmissible than the prevalent delta variant. Researchers estimate that the Rt, called, “r-naught,” is R12 to R17, which is equivalent to measles. The Rt for delta is R6.0 and for the AY.4.2 delta variant is R6.6.

Another study released on Thursday indicated that people relying on disease acquired immunity are up to 240% more likely to be infected from the omicron variant versus the beta or delta variants.

The CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna stated their vaccines would remain highly effective at preventing severe COVID and hospitalizations. Researchers are still one to two weeks away from preliminary information on if there will be significant vaccine escape with the omicron variant.

Public health officials are recommended for the unvaccinated to get vaccinated and for the 2.2 million Washingtonians eligible for a booster to get one. Washington state continues to have an indoor mask mandate.

Individuals who are experiencing COVID-like symptoms or have a known close contact should get tested. If you have traveled or know you had close contact with a traveler and get a positive test result from a home test, you should follow up with a PCR test to aid in tracking the spread of the omicron COVID variant.

Health and Lifestyle, Local, National

10 Omicron cases in 5 states – local, state, national, and global COVID update for December 2, 2021

Knowledge is the best tool to fight against fear. A wise person chooses to be informed so they can make sound decisions. To join the fight against COVID misinformation, you can share this update through your social media platform of choice.

[KING COUNTY, Wash.] – (MTN) Officials in five states have reported Omicron cases from Hawaii to New York, as the world races to better understand the danger the new variant presents.

In Washington, the first set of local COVID data was made available in a week, indicating that hospitalizations are plateaued again and new cases are down. Twenty-six counties no longer have high rates of transmission. There was an increase in new cases among 20 to 49-year-olds compared to last week.

Governor Jay Inslee reported that FEMA was sending two mobile vaccination clinics to King County, with the first one opening on December 20 in Federal Way.

One-third of the 3.3 million booster eligible residents of Washington have leveled up, while in some areas people are searching for appointments to get a third dose.

Almost 75% of residents age 12 and over are now fully vaccinated, and 17% of all Washington children ages 5 to 11 have received at least one dose of the Pfizer vaccine.

Locally, new COVID cases in the Bellevue, Lake Washington, and Northshore School Districts were down from last week. Vaccination rates for children 5 to 11 that live in the three districts are remarkable with some zip codes reporting almost 60% of all kids already receiving their first dose.

In national news, the United States has confirmed ten Omicron variant cases in California, Colorado, Hawaii, Minnesota, and New York. The infections in Hawaii, Minnesota, and several in New York were caused by community transmission.

President Joe Biden announced new programs to try and combat the spread of COVID in the United States, but Republicans in the Senate threatened to have the United States default on the national debt if he implemented meaningful strict measures.

In South Africa officials are becoming increasingly alarmed as new cases and hospitalizations increase exponentially. The Gauteng Province, home to 15.7 million is the hardest hit, but cases were increasing across the nation. Officials there reported COVID hospitalizations increased more than 23% overnight, and ICU admissions jumped almost 40%.

A study published tonight from South Africa reported that people relying on natural immunity had a 240% higher chance of reinfection with the Omicron variant, compared to the Beta or Delta variants.

In disinformation, we explore the claim that the Omicron variant is no worse than a cold or flu.

This update uses the latest data from the Washington State Department of Health (WSDOH), released on December 02, 2021.

hospitalsschoolslocalnationalglobal updatesdisinformation

In August, King County Health Officer Dr. Jeff Duchin mentioned the N95 Project as a trusted source for N95 masks. A check on the website showed that a 50 count box of N95 masks are available for $40.00, and a package of 10 count children sized KN95 masks are available for $10.50. We recommend wearing N95 or KN95 masks indoors as they provide the best protection against COVID when properly fitted.

No promotional consideration has been given, or requested from the n95 project or any manufacturer of masks

Washington State Update for December 2, 2021

Washington state Covid-19 update

After a six-day break from updated and accurate data from the Washington State Department of Health, we’re back. A week ago the question was how much would Thanksgiving travel impact new case rates. The Omicron variant has changed the plot.

Vaccination data for the state was updated. A couple of counties had numbers drop from last week. This has happened before as data gets validated but this update dropped Grant County below 50% – so the brackets changed.

Skagit and Whatcom Counties new cases rates are down about 40% from three weeks ago. The surge of cases among mostly unvaccinated residents is winding down. New

New cases have decreased a smidge compared to last week but do not reveal any significant trends.

Percent of Total Population Fully VaccinatedTotal Population in GroupAverage 14-Day New Case Rate
70.00% or above (3 counties)2,343,250127.7
60.00% to 69.99% (5 counties)1,374,000261.0
50.00% to 59.99% (15 counties)3,420,400227.8
40.00% to 49.99% (9 counties)487,375234.7
32.30% to 39.99% (6 counties)151,850176.7
14-Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate for Total Population, Adjusted for Population by County

Through December 2, Washington’s statewide 14-day rolling average is 203.2 Covid-19 cases per 100K, and the 7 day rolling average is 82.7.

No counties have a case rate over 400.0. per 100,000 residents. Twenty-six counties representing 5.65 million Washingtonians have a 7 day moving average case rate under 100.

New cases by age declined for every age group except 20 to 49-year-olds, which increased. Hospitalizations for ages 20 to 34 also increased.

Age Group7-Day Case Rate7-Day Hospitalization Rate
Ages 0-1191.50.1
Ages 12-1983.30.5
Ages 20-34100.19.1
Ages 35-49100.1 (not a typo)5.5
Ages 50-6473.88.8
Ages 65-7944.110.2
Ages 80+40.617.0
7-day case rate and 7-day hospitalization rate is per 100K within the age group – the target for 7-day case rate is <25.0, but there are other factors such as vaccination rates within the age groups, how many total tests within the 7-day period, and the positivity rate within each age group

The USA Today COVID Tracker has not been updated since November 30 but reports 9,303 Washingtonians have died from Covid-19 related illness.

FEMA sending mobile vaccination clinics to Washington

Governor Jay Inslee announced that FEMA would be sending two mobile vaccination clinics to Washington. The first site will open on December 20 in Federal Way and is slated to operate for a month. A second location is planned but a date and location were not announced.

“This is great news in the ongoing fight against COVID. I am grateful for our strong partnership with the federal government, and these FEMA Family Mobilization Clinics coming to King County is a great result of that partnership,” said Inslee. “This is an innovative model that will help increase equitable access to vaccination for all Washingtonians.”

A constellation of partners is working with FEMA including the Washington State Department of Health, the King County Executive’s Office, and Seattle & King County Public Health.

Some people in Western Washington have reported problems in securing vaccination appointments for boosters due to high demand.

One-third of booster eligible Washingtonians have leveled up

The Washington State Department of Health reported 1.08 million of the 3.3 million eligible for boosters have rolled up their sleeves. There is significant evidence that vaccine and disease acquired immunity declines after five to seven months, but a number of factors such as age and other health issues can affect the duration.

There is some evidence within the genetic sequencing of the Omicron variant that disease-acquired immunity from previous mutations won’t be as strong as vaccine-based immunity.

Over 17% of Washington kids age 5 to 11 have received their first dose of the COVID vax

The Washington State Department of Health reported 116,121 children from 5 to 11 have received their first dose of the Pfizer COVID vaccine, about 17% of all eligible kids in Washington.

The Pfizer vaccine Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) was amended to include 5 to 11-year-olds. They receive two smaller doses and reach fully vaccinated after five weeks. Initial data indicates that due to the stronger immune response of children and adolescents, a booster or third dose is not needed. That could change with time or if another variant emerges that is vaccine-resistant.

Washington state approaching 75% of population 12 and older fully vaccinated

The Washington State Department of Health reported 80.8% of all Washingtonians 12 and older have received at least one dose of the COVID vaccine and 74.6% are fully vaccinated.

Although this is good news, Washington is starting to fall behind other states. The Mayo Clinic reported that Washington was in 10th place for 12 to 17-year-olds fully vaccinated, 9th place for 18 to 64-year-olds, and tied with 32 other states for first place for 65 and older.

Travel Advisories

Due to the confirmation of community transmission of the Omicron variant in the United States, we are advising our readers to reconsider air travel and recreational travel plans. Especially if those plans include going to places with large crowds or major events at enclosed buildings.

Thank you

Thank you to our new subscribers and those of you who have made one-time contributions. On behalf of the entire team, thank you for helping us keep the lights on!

King County, Washington is reporting over 85.0% of age eligible residents are vaccinated with at least one dose. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA has provided full approval of the Pfizer vaccine for anyone 16 and over and EUA approval for the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines. The Pfizer vaccine has EUA approval for children 5 to 15 years old.

COVID vaccines and boosters are free for anyone 5 and older. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.

For information on getting a vaccination in King County, you can visit the King County Department of Public Health website.

Malcontent News

Hospital Status

It has been a week since the last report and hospital status has improved significantly while the number of COVID patients receiving care remains elevated. The Washington State Department of Health reported 89.4% of staffed acute care beds were occupied with 10.2% of patients infected with Covid-19. There are 706 COVID patients statewide with an estimated 212 in the ICU – 114 requiring ventilators.

Statewide, there are an estimated 753 acute care and 151ICU beds available.

On Wednesday, the 7 day rolling average hospital admission rate for new COVID patients was statistically the same as last week – 65.

Hospital RegionCountiesICU OccupancyICU COVID PatientsAcute Care OccupancyAcute Care COVID Patients
EastAdams, Asotin, Ferry, Garfield, Lincoln, Pend Oreille, Spokane, Stevens, Wahkiakum, Whitman88.3%19.9%86.7%10.0%
NorthIsland, San Juan, Skagit, Whatcom69.5%28.2%80.0%12.3%
North CentralChelan, Douglas, Grant, Okanogan91.1%34.1%70.4%12.9%
NorthwestClallam, Jefferson, Kitsap, Mason92.2%20.0%95.8%8.7%
Puget SoundKing, Pierce, Snohomish90.5%16.9%94.3%9.7%
South CentralBenton, Columbia, Franklin, Kittitas, Walla Walla, Yakima89.0%16.8%82.7%10.3%
SouthwestClark, Cowlitz, Klickitat, Skamania64.9%14.2%79.6%10.0%
WestGrays Harbor, Lewis, Pacific, Thurston88.6%18.3%92.3%13.1%
Hospital status by region – ICU Occupancy should be below 80%, ICU COVID Patients should be below 20%, Acute Care Occupancy should be below 80%, and Acute Care COVID Patients should be below 10%

School Readiness

School DistrictStatusLess than 10 Active Cases10 or More Active Cases
BellevueGREEN– Bellevue (2*)
– Interlake (2*)
– Odle (1*)
– Highland (1*)
– Newport (1*)
– Tyee (1*)		None
Lake WashingtonYELLOW– Blackwell (1*/4)
– Dickinson/Explorer (2*/7)
– Eastlake High (1*/3)
– Ella Baker (1*/0)
– Evergreen Middle School (1*/0)
– Finn Hill Middle School (2*/18)
– Inglewood Middle School (1*/0)
– Juanita High (2*/39)
– Kamiakin Middle School (2*/12)
– Keller (2*/7)
– Kirkland Middle School (1*/8)
– Lakeview Elementary (2*/2)
– Lake Washington High School (1*/7)
– Mead (2*/7)
– Northstar Middle School (12)
– Redmond High School (1*/10)
– Redmond Middle School (1*/19)
– Rush (2*/8)
– Thoreau (2*/6)		None
NorthshoreYELLOW– Bothell High School (3*/12)
– Canyon Creek Elementary (5**/11)
– Canyon Park Middle School (1*/4)
– Crystal Springs Elementary (1*/17)
– Fernwood Elementary (1*/0)
– Frank Love Elementary (1*/10)
– Kenmore Elementary (1*/6)
– Kenmore Middle School (4*/32)
– Kokanee Elementary (0/1)
– Leota Middle School (1*/2)
– Maywood Hills Elementary (3*/4)
– Moorlands Elementary (1*/2)
– Northshore Middle School (1*/13)
– Ruby Bridges Elementary (0/1)
– Shelton View Elementary (0/2)
– Skyview Middle School (1*/4)
– Sunrise Elementary (2*/2)
– Timbercrest Middle School (2*/0)
– Wellington Elementary (1*/1)
– Woodin Elementary (0/2)
Woodmore Elementary (0/4)		None
Local Districts Scorecard – * indicates positive cases only ** indicates 5 or more confirmed positive cases – (x*/y) x is positive cases and 7 quarantined, quarantined does not include positive cases

We redefined the school district statuses. Information for classroom and building closures has been a challenge to obtain, both for closures and reopening. We are adopting moving any school with more than ten active COVID cases reported into the red, and we’ve adjusted the third column to reflect this change.

Based on reader feedback, and improvement in the data we are receiving, we have adjusted how we are reporting data. The Lake Washington and Northshore School Districts are now reported as (X*/Y) or (X**/Y). X represents the number of positive cases while Y represents how many are in quarantine. The number in quarantine does not include positive cases. If there are two asterisks, that indicates five or more confirmed cases within the last 14 days at that school.

Confirmed COVID cases were down in the three school districts we track. The Bellevue School District did not have updated data for quarantined students today.

The Lake Washington School District updates data once a week, and we’ve had no parent confirmed reports on new COVID cases this week.

We continued to encourage parents to request daily updates from the Lake Washington School District. This change would bring the three school districts we track into alignment.

Bellevue-Bothell-Kirkland-Woodinville local COVID news

King County Public Health updated the vaccination rates by zip code and now reports the data from ages 5 and up. Vaccination rates for children between 5 to 11 remain remarkable for the region.

Percentage of King County Residents 5 and older who have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine, December 2, 2021
Zip CodePercent vaccinated, at least one dose, 5 to 11 years oldPercent vaccinated, at least one dose, 5 and older
9815546.8%92.5%
9802842.7%88.5%
9801137.2%85.2%
9803438.8%84.3%
9803359.5%93.5%
9807239.2%88.2%
9807735.7%80.2%
9805255.0%94.6%
9800451.3%>95.0%
9803944.6%90.7%
9800553.4%94.8%
9800732.3%88.0%
9800844.5%91.2%
9805346.0%92.9%
9807450.5%>95.0%
9807543.0%>95.0%
Vaccination rates with at least one dose

National Round-Up

Johns Hopkins University Cumulative Case Tracker reports 137,602 new cases and 1,960 deaths nationwide on Thursday. New cases continue to grow at a significant rate in the United States. There is no way to know if Omicron is driving the increase, but current data indicates that over 99% of new cases are Delta or one of its sublineages.

At least 10 Omicron COVID variant cases confirmed in the United States

Health officials in California, Colorado, Hawaii, Minnesota, and New York confirmed at least one case of the Omicron variant in their states.

Yesterday, the Centers for Disease Control confirmed the first Omicron variant case in the United States. The travel-related case was an 18 to 49-year-old male tested in the San Francisco area. They were fully vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine but not eligible for a booster because six months hadn’t passed since their second shot. They returned from South Africa on November 22 and tested on November 29. They have mild symptoms and are quarantined at home.

Late tonight, California officials reported a second travel-related case in Los Angeles county. That person traveled from South Africa to Los Angeles via London and returned on November 22. They are fully vaccinated but did not receive a booster. They are experiencing mild symptoms and are quarantined at home. Health officials reported they have already contacted and tested all close contacts, and didn’t find any new cases.

This morning Minnesota officials reported a community transmission case. The person identified as male, traveled to New York City to attend an anime convention at the Javits Center from November 19 to 21. The event had 53,000 attendees. They were fully vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine and had received a booster in early November.

Around lunchtime, Colorado officials reported a travel-related case. The woman was fully vaccinated but had not received a booster. She told authorities she had worn a mask during all her travels and developed symptoms after returning home from southern Africa last week. She has mild symptoms and is quarantined at home.

In the late afternoon, New York Governor Kathy Hochul reported five cases in the metro New York City area. There wasn’t little information available on each case, which is a combination of community transmission and travel-related. Two were in Queens, two in Brooklyn, one in Suffolk County, and one was not identified. The condition and vaccination status weren’t readily available.

Close to press time, officials in Hawaii reported their first case of an unvaccinated individual. The person had not traveled so officials believe it was caused by community transmission. The person is unvaccinated and was previously infected with COVID. They were tested on November 29, and currently are experiencing moderate symptoms. The press release from the State of Hawaii Department of Health did not indicate if they were hospitalized.

President Joe Biden announces winter battle plan to fight COVID

Under the threat of letting the United States default on its national debt, President Joe Biden conceded he would not push further vaccine mandates and announced other measures to combat COVID and the Omicron variant.

  • Requiring travelers entering the country by air to test negative for Covid-19 within a day of departure, regardless of vaccination status or nationality
  • Extending the requirement that masks be worn on airplanes, trains and public transportation to March 18
  • Requiring private health insurance companies to cover 100% of the cost of at-home tests for COVID
  • Public education to encourage 100 million eligible adults to get boosters shots

Editor’s Note: Consider us very underwhelmed.

Global update

New Omicron variant cases and hospitalizations skyrocket in South Africa

The number of new COVID cases and hospitalizations in South Africa is increasing at an alarming rate, with officials concerned that a record peak in infections is only 14 to 21 days away.

The South Africa Department of Health (SADOH) reported 74% of all detected COVID cases in November and 90% of new cases in the last week of the month were the Omicron variant. New cases have increased exponentially since November 24, the same day South African officials alerted the World Health Organization of the new variant.

Officials haven’t provided specifics on how much more transmissible Omicron is to previous variants, only saying that is higher.

New COVID cases in South Africa November 11 to December 2, 2021

SADOH reported 11,535 new cases today, an increase of 468% from a week ago. The 7 day rolling average for new cases jumped to 5,093. South Africa is testing about 52,000 people a day as the positivity rate increase at a significant rate. Officials reported 22.4% of the tests performed on Wednesday as positive for COVID infection.

In Gauteng Province, home to 15.7 million people, the number of hospitalized patients increased 23.4% overnight, jumping from 1,035 to 1,351 total patients. ICU patients increased by 38.5% while people needing oxygen held steady at 15% and ventilator use increased from 27 to 30.

Study from South Africa indicates COVID reinfection risk is very high

Researchers in South Africa and Canada reported data from South Africa suggests that, in contrast to the Beta and Delta, the Omicron variant of COVID demonstrates substantial population-level evidence for evasion of immunity from prior infection.

Researchers look at data from 2.8 million individuals who had lab-confirmed COVID positive tests at least 90 days before November 27, 2021. Among that group, they identified 35,670 lab-confirmed reinfections. The study found that reinfection with the Beta or Delta variant was infrequent, with disease acquired immunity providing protection. The research did not take the severity of illness into consideration for the initial or subsequent infections.

Reinfection rates from November 1 to November 27 increased by 240%, indicating that natural immunity may not provide much benefit. The results of the study could have implications on the effectiveness of monoclonal antibodies, but more data is required.

The study was done by a number of respected individuals but has not been peer-reviewed.

Disinformation

Although some officials have stated that Omicron cases appear to be mild, disinformation campaigns have latched on to these statements and are claiming an infection is no worse than a cold or flu.

On November 26 and again on November 28, Dr. Angleique Coetzee said that the infections she saw in her private practice were ‘very mild.’ On November 28 she expanded her statement to say that the observation was ‘not anecdotally’ and other clinicians were echoing her findings. She also stated that hospitalizations were not increasing. Her comments were addressed in a World Health Organization Omicron update on the same day.

“There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants.  Initial reported infections were among university students—younger individuals who tend to have more mild disease—but understanding the level of severity of the Omicron variant will take days to several weeks.”

We do not believe that Dr. Coetzee is actively spreading disinformation and is speaking from her direct experience as a clinician. We also believe that people are misunderstanding what a ‘mild’ case of COVID means. A mild case is a case that doesn’t require clinical intervention or hospitalizations. With Covid-19 that’s more than a cold or the flu.

Dr. Rudo Mathivha is the head of critical care at Baragwanath Hospital in Soweto, a level 1 trauma center and the largest hospital in the Southern Hemisphere with 3,400 beds. Dr. Mathivha did a series of interviews in South Africa yesterday and reported she was seeing an increase in hospital admissions in children under 5 years old accompanied by a dramatic increase in patients needing high care and admission to the ICU.

“The number of ill patients presenting to hospitals has increased exponentially,” she said.

“We are seeing definitely a change in the demographic profile of patients. We are seeing toddlers under five presenting with symptoms and they are sick enough to require admission and to require supplemental oxygen.”

Researchers don’t know how severe Omicron infections will be at this time, and anyone making claims on the severity, either way, is not presenting informed information. Anyone claiming that Omicron is just a cold is spreading disinformation.